ALBERT

Description: Farmers’ subjective perceptions of climatic changes are not always in line with historic climate observations. Adaptation decisions based on these perceptions thus remain controversial. The paper therefore relates to the following questions: First, what are farmers’ perceptions of climatic changes? Second, do they correlate with observations from climatic data? Third, how do farmers respond and what are the factors determining adaptation? The analysis is based on household survey data from a sample of 900 farmers in rural Tanzania and secondary data from local meteorological stations. We find that farmers’ perception of a rising average temperature over time is generally confirmed. This is not the case for rainfall: farmers perceive that annual rainfall amount decreased, while climate data rather shows no change in the amount, but indicates a change in the rainfall pattern. However, we do find only a weak link between farmers’ perception and their behavior. Although farmers perceive climatic changes to happen and to affect them, some choose to not adapt at all and many only react in an evasive way, i.e., by coping measures that will not protect their household from future damage. Only a small share of farmers chose investment-intensive long-term strategies such as irrigation systems. Results confirm that a limited adaptive capacity plays a role, but also reveal the intention to adapt as a relevant factor. This is represented by the farmers’ loss experience due to climatic shocks and personality traits. This approach gives a more complete picture of the farmers’ adaptation decision.

Description: An impact assessment of food-securing upgrading strategies (UPS) can be performed to assess actual and potential UPS effects at the local level. We developed an assessment framework that integrates the main components of the food value chain (FVC), including natural resources, food production, processing, marketing, and consumption. The framework provides a generic template in which different impact assessment approaches can be complementarily integrated and was tested for a case study in Tanzania. The framework employs a structured sequence of steps: (1) context analysis and the development of UPS, (2) the selection and application of assessment approaches and (3) the establishment of food security criteria and UPS effects. To illustrate the flexibility and use of the framework, the inputs of three different impact assessment approaches were considered. First, data from a household survey was applied to provide baseline information at the local level. Second, scientific knowledge was employed to systematically assess the selected UPS. Third, local stakeholder knowledge was considered to identify the local food security constraints and preferences and provide assessments of potential UPS effects. The Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA) approach was utilized to conduct local focus group discussions, and the Scaling Up Assessment Tool for Food Security (ScalA-FS) was employed to gather scientific knowledge about specific UPS impacts. Based on the preliminary results from the framework testing, diverse stakeholder participation was found to be essential for considering local preferences and to engage stakeholders in the assessment process, whereas scientific knowledge and monitoring data were needed to complement the “local picture” with more quantifiable results. The strengths and shortcomings of the framework are discussed.