ALBERT

Description: Mechanisms such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse may rapidly increase discharge from marine-based ice sheets. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea-level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) simulations incorporating these physical processes to explore their influence on global-mean sea-level (GMSL) and relative sea-level (RSL). We compare the new projections to past results using expert assessment and structured expert elicitation about AIS changes. Under high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5), median projected 21st century GMSL rise increases from 79 to 146 cm. Without protective measures, revised median RSL projections would by 2100 submerge land currently home to 153 million people, an increase of 44 million. The use of a physical model, rather than simple parameterizations assuming constant acceleration of ice loss, increases forcing sensitivity: overlap between the central 90% of simulations for 2100 for RCP 8.5 (93-243 cm) and RCP 2.6 (26-98 cm) is minimal. By 2300, the gap between median GMSL estimates for RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 reaches 〉10 m, with median RSL projections for RCP 8.5 jeopardizing land now occupied by 950 million people (versus 167 million for RCP 2.6). The minimal correlation between the contribution of AIS to GMSL by 2050 and that in 2100 and beyond implies current sea-level observations cannot exclude future extreme outcomes. The sensitivity of post-2050 projections to deeply uncertain physics highlights the need for robust decision and adaptive management frameworks.

Description: The Late Cretaceous was much warmer than today. There was no significant ice at high latitudes, meridional thermal gradients were low, and continental interiors remained warm during winter. Late Cretaceous atmospheric C02 concentrations were about four times greater than today and an enhanced "greenhouse" effect contributed to the overall warmth of the Late Cretaceous. However , increases in atmospheric C02 tend to increase temperatures at all latitudes and do not explain the very low thermal gradients recognized in the geologic record. Increased poleward ocean heat transport has been cited as a mechanism for maintaining low meridional thermal gradients during the Cretaceous. However , ocean heat transport values larger than the present day are difficult to reconcile. In addition, low meridional thermal gradients suggest sluggish atmospheric circulation, implying that the advection of heat from the warm oceans into the continental interiors was limited. In general, paleoclimate simulations using Atmospheric General Circulations Models (AGCMs) have not been successful in simulating the low meridional thermal gradients and warm winter continental interiors of the Cretaceous, forcing the concept of "equability" to be questioned. Until recently, the physical effects of vegetation on pre-Quaternary climates have largely been ignored. Terrestrial ecosystems influence global climate by affecting the exchange of energy, water, and momentum between the land surface and the atmosphere. In a new approach to pre-Quaternary paleoclimate modeling, Campanian (80 Ma) climate and vegetation have been simulated using a global climate model (GENESIS Version 2.0), coupled to a predictive vegetation model (EVE), resulting in a realistic simulation of Late Cretaceous climate. The predicted distribution of Late Cretaceous vegetation played an important role in the maintenance of low meridional thermal gradients, polar warmth, and equable continental interiors. High latitude forests reduced albedo, especially during snowcovered months, and increased net surface radiation and latent heat flux.

Description: The nature of the warm climates of the Cretaceous has been enigmatic since the first numerical climate models were run in the late 1970s. Quantitative simulations of the paleoclimate have consistently failed to agree with information from plant and animal fossils and climate sensitive sediments. The ‘cold continental interior paradox’ (first described by DeConto et al. in Barrera E, Johnson C (eds) Evolution of the Cretaceous Ocean/climate system, vol 332. Geological Society of America Special Paper, Boulder, pp 391–406, 1999), has been an enigma, with extensive continental interiors, especially in northeast Asia, modeled as below freezing in spite of plant and other evidence to the contrary. We reconsider the paleoelevations of specific areas, particularly along the northeastern Siberian continental margin, where paleofloras indeed indicate higher temperatures than suggested by current climate models. Evidence for significant masses of ice on land during even the otherwise warmest times of the Cretaceous is solved by reinterpretation of the δ18O record of fossil plankton. The signal interpreted as an increase in ice volume on land is the same as the signal for an increase in the volume of groundwater reservoirs on land. The problem of a warm Arctic, where fossil floras indicate that they never experienced freezing conditions in winter, could not be solved by numerical simulations using higher CO2 equivalent greenhouse gas concentrations. We propose a solution by assuming that paleoelevations were less than today and that there were much more extensive wetlands (lakes, meandering rivers, swamps, bogs) on the continents than previously assumed. Using ~ 8 × CO2 equivalent greenhouse gas concentrations and assuming 50–75% water surfaces providing water vapor as a supplementary greenhouse gas on the continents reduces the meridional temperature gradients. Under these conditions the equatorial to polar region temperature gradients produce conditions compatible with fossil and sedimentological evidence.

Description: The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate–ecological–social systems. The chance of detecting abrupt changes and tipping points increases with the length of observations. The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. Here, we use well-documented abrupt changes of the past 30 kyr to illustrate how their impacts cascade through the Earth system. We review useful indicators of upcoming abrupt changes, or early warning signals, and provide a perspective on the contributions of palaeoclimate science to the understanding of abrupt changes in the Earth system.

Description: The geological record encodes the relationship between climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) over long and short timescales, as well as potential drivers of evolutionary transitions. However, reconstructing CO 2 beyond direct measurements requires the use of paleoproxies and herein lies the challenge, as proxies differ in their assumptions, degree of understanding, and even reconstructed values. In this study, we critically evaluated, categorized, and integrated available proxies to create a high-fidelity and transparently constructed atmospheric CO 2 record spanning the past 66 million years. This newly constructed record provides clearer evidence for higher Earth system sensitivity in the past and for the role of CO 2 thresholds in biological and cryosphere evolution. Editor’s summary The concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide is a fundamental driver of climate, but its value is difficult to determine for times older than the roughly 800,000 years for which ice core records are available. The Cenozoic Carbon dioxide Proxy Integration Project (CenCO2PIP) Consortium assessed a comprehensive collection of proxy determinations to define the atmospheric carbon dioxide record for the past 66 million years. This synthesis provides the most complete record yet available and will help to better establish the role of carbon dioxide in climate, biological, and cryosphere evolution. — H. Jesse Smith