ALBERT

Description: A linearized planetary scale wave model is used to investigate the effects of thermal and mechanical damping on atmospheric tides. When the damping rate is comparable to the frequency of solar diurnal forcing the circulation consists of three parts: a classical vertically propagating 'atmospheric tide' in the upper atmosphere, a simple thermally direct subsolar-to-antisolar circulation or 'Halley cell' in most of the lower atmosphere, and finally, a reversed 'anti-Halley cell' near the surface. The near-surface circulation produces horizontal divergence near the subsolar point. While tides are a frequently encountered phenomenon (Venus, earth, and Mars), there is so far no observational evidence of a Halley circulation in any planetary atmosphere. A subsolar-antisolar circulation might be possible in Venus' slowly rotating lower atmosphere if the mechanical dissipation time scale is of the order of or less than a Venusian day. Such a circulation could be a factor in maintaining the superrotation of Venus' upper atmosphere.

Description: Interception of sunlight by the high altitude worldwide dust cloud generated by impact of a large asteroid or comet would lead to substantial land surface cooling, according to our three-dimensional atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). This result is qualitatively similar to conclusions drawn from an earlier study that employed a one-dimensional atmospheric model, but in the GCM simulation the heat capacity of the oceans substantially mitigates land surface cooling, an effect that one-dimensional models cannot quantify. On the other hand, the low heat capacity of the GCM's land surface allows temperatures to drop more rapidly in the initial stage of cooling than in the one-dimensional model study. These two differences between three-dimensional and one-dimensional model simulations were noted previously in studies of nuclear winter; GCM-simulated climatic changes in the Alvarez-inspired scenario of asteroid/comet winter, however, are more severe than in nuclear winter because the assumed aerosol amount is large enough to intercept all sunlight falling on earth. Impacts of smaller objects could also lead to dramatic, though less severe, climatic changes, according to our GCM. Our conclusion is that it is difficult to imagine an asteroid or comet impact leading to anything approaching complete global freezing, but quite reasonable to assume that impacts at the Alvarez level, or even smaller, dramatically alter the climate in at least a patchy sense.

Description: We review the major mechanisms proposed to cause extinctions at the Cretaceous-Tertiary geological boundary following an asteroid impact. We then discuss how the proposed extinction may relate to the impact of asteroids or comets in general. We discuss the limitations of these mechanisms in terms of the spatial scale that may be affected, and the time scale over which the effects may last. Our goal is to provide relatively simple prescriptions for evaluating the importance of colliding objects having a range of energies and compositions. We also identify the many uncertainties concerning the environmental effects of impacts. We conclude that, for impact energies below about 10(exp 4) Mts (megatons of TNT equivalent) - i.e., impact frequencies less than in 6 x 10(exp 4) yr, corresponding to comets and asteroids with diameters smaller than about 400 m and 650 m, respectively - blast damage, earthquakes, and fires should be important on a scale of 10(exp 4) or 10(exp 5) km (exp 2), which corresponds to the area damaged in many natural disasters of recent history. However, tsunami could be more damaging, flooding a kilometer of coastal plane over entire ocean basins. In the energy range of 10(exp 4) to 10 (exp 5) Mts (intervals up to 3 x 10(exp 5) yr; comets and asteroids with sizes up to 800 m and 1.5 km, respectively) water vapor injections and ozone loss become significant on the global scale. In the submicrometer dust injection fraction from the pulverized target material is much higher than is presently thought to be most likely, then dust injection could be important in this energy range.

Description: Interception of sunlight by the high altitude worldwide dust cloud generated by impact of a large asteroid or comet would lead to substantial land surface cooling, according to the three-dimensional atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). This result is qualitatively similar to conclusions drawn from an earlier study that employed a one-dimensional atmospheric model, but in the GCM simulation the heat capacity of the oceans, not included in the one-dimensional model, substantially mitigates land surface cooling. On the other hand, the low heat capacity of the GCM's land surface allows temperatures to drop more rapidly in the initial stages of cooling than in the one-dimensional model study. GCM-simulated climatic changes in the scenario of asteroid/comet winter are more severe than in nuclear winter because the assumed aerosol amount is large enough to intercept all sunlight falling on earth. Impacts of smaller objects could also lead to dramatic, though of course less severe, climatic changes, according to the GCM. An asteroid or comet impact would not lead to anything approaching complete global freezing, but quite reasonable to assume that impacts would dramatically alter the climate in at least a patchy sense.

Description: The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) was established to study and intercompare climate simulations made with coupled ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere-land GCMs. There are two main phases (CMIP1 and CMIP2), which study, respectively, 1) the ability of models to simulate current climate, and 2) model simulations of climate change due to an idealized change in forcing (a 1% per year CO2 increase). Results from a number of CMIP projects were reported at the first CMIP Workshop held in Melbourne, Australia, in October 1998. Some recent advances in global coupled modeling related to CMIP were also reported. Presentations were based on preliminary unpublished results. Key outcomes from the workshop were that 1) many observed aspects of climate variability are simulated in global coupled models including the North Atlantic oscillation and its linkages to North Atlantic SSTs, El Niño-like events, and monsoon interannual variability; 2) the amplitude of both high- and low-frequency global mean surface temperature variability in many global coupled models is less than that observed, with the former due in part to simulated ENSO in the models being generally weaker than observed, and the latter likely to be at least partially due to the uncertainty in the estimates of past radiative forcing; 3) an El Niño-like pattern in the mean SST response with greater surface warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific than the western equatorial Pacific is found by a number of models in global warming climate change experiments, but other models have a more spatially uniform or even a La Niña-like, response; 4) flux adjustment, by definition, improves the simulation of mean present-day climate over oceans, does not guarantee a drift-free climate, but can produce a stable base state in some models to enable very long term (1000 yr and longer) integrations-in these models it does not appear to have a major effect on model processes or model responses to increasing CO2; and 5) recent multicentury integrations show that a stable surface climate can be attained without flux adjustment (though still with some systematic simulation errors).