ALBERT

Description: Substorms are often observed to occur at the end of intervals of Southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), i.e. following the northward turning. Despite the significant correlation between northward turning and substorms, no direct causal relationship between northward turnings and substorms has been demonstrated. Assuming such a causal relationship, we predict that substorms will occur within a particular interval following the observation of a northward turning in the IMF. We observe 16 northward turnings following steady, southward IMF in data taken by the WIND spacecraft magnetic field instrument (MFI). To ensure that the northward turning was observed at the magnetosphere, we require that the northward turning also be observed by instruments on either one of Geotail or IMP-8 while the separation of the second spacecraft from WIND was more that 10 R(sub E). These two-spacecraft observations also allow us to predict more accurately the arrival time of the northward turning at the Earth. Of the predictions substorms, 10 predictions were clearly successful to within +/- 12 min. Five predictions failed, but the failures reveal clear shortcomings in the criteria for a northward turning that we correct. The failures were caused by an increase in the absolute value of B(sub YGSM) simultaneous with the northward turning in 3 cases, and a weak southward IMF preceding the northward turning in 2 cases. The final northward turning arrived in the recovery phase of an ongoing substorm, and resulted in unusual auroral activity. The implication of the predictability of substorms following sharp northward turnings is that the postulated causal relationship between northward turnings and substorm onset exists. The effect of increases in the absolute value of B(sub YGSM) to negate the triggering ability of northward turnings suggests that the triggering mechanism involves sharp reductions in the magnetospheric convection electric field.

Description: It has been shown that there is an association between changes of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) that are expected to lead to a reduction in magnetospheric convection (northward turnings, reductions) and the onset of the expansion phase of substorms. This has been previously demonstrated by analyses of IMF data during time intervals associated with identified substorm onsets. Here we examine whether observations of northward turnings of the IMF can be used to predict the occurrence of substorms. We first identified sharp northward turnings that follow an interval of steady, southward IMF using measurements from the Wind spacecraft during the first 180 days of 1997. We also required that the northward turning be observed by either IMP-8 or GEOTAIL, in addition to Wind, and that one of the observing satellites be sufficiently close to the Earth-Sun line, or that the two observing satellites be sufficiently separated, that we are reasonably certain that the northward turning affected the magnetosphere. We also used the dual observations to estimate the arrival of the northward turning at the Earth. Using these criteria, we predicted 17 substorms. We then searched for the following signatures of substorm onset around the time of the predicted onset: auroral brightening followed by auroral bulge expansion observed by Polar UVI, geosynchronous particle injection, geosynchronous magnetic field dipolarization, and an appropriate magnetic disturbance at the surface of the Earth. Of the 17 predictions of substorms, 10 were successful in that a substorm onset was observed within 12 min of the predicted onset, 1 is indeterminate due to a lack of data at the Earth, 1 had unusual activity that we have not been able to identify, and 5 were unsuccessful. The failure of these last 5 predictions is explicable. Two of the northward turnings that failed to produce substorms were preceded by the lowest average of the set. The remaining 3 were the only cases in which the northward turning was accompanied by a simultaneous sharp increase. The increase would be expected to offset the decrease in convection that would otherwise be expected to be associated with a northward turning. These results indicate that it is an IMF change that leads to a reduction in convection, rather than just a northward turning or reduction that is associated with substorms, and that at least some substorms can be predicted by measurements of the IMF.