ALBERT

Description: We characterise the representation of the Southern Ocean water mass structure and sea ice within a suite of 15 global ocean-ice models run with the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiment Phase II (CORE-II) protocol. The main focus is the representation of the present (1988-2007) mode and intermediate waters, thus framing an analysis of winter and summer mixed layer depths; temperature, salinity, and potential vorticity structure; and temporal variability of sea ice distributions. We also consider the interannual variability over the same 20 year period. Comparisons are made between models as well as to observation-based analyses where available. The CORE-II models exhibit several biases relative to Southern Ocean observations, including an underestimation of the model mean mixed layer depths of mode and intermediate water masses in March (associated with greater ocean surface heat gain), and an overestimation in September (associated with greater high latitude ocean heat loss and a more northward winter sea-ice extent). In addition, the models have cold and fresh/warm and salty water column biases centred near 50 deg S. Over the 1988-2007 period, the CORE-II models consistently simulate spatially variable trends in sea-ice concentration, surface freshwater fluxes, mixed layer depths, and 200-700 m ocean heat content. In particular, sea-ice coverage around most of the Antarctic continental shelf is reduced, leading to a cooling and freshening of the near surface waters. The shoaling of the mixed layer is associated with increased surface buoyancy gain, except in the Pacific where sea ice is also influential. The models are in disagreement, despite the common CORE-II atmospheric state, in their spatial pattern of the 20-year trends in the mixed layer depth and sea-ice.

Description: Simulated inter-annual to decadal variability and trends in the North Atlantic for the 19582007 period from twenty global ocean - sea-ice coupled models are presented. These simulations are performed as contributions to the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). The study is Part II of our companion paper (Danabasoglu et al., 2014) which documented the mean states in the North Atlantic from the same models. A major focus of the present study is the representation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability in the participating models. Relationships between AMOC variability and those of some other related variables, such as subpolar mixed layer depths, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Labrador Sea upper-ocean hydrographic properties, are also investigated. In general, AMOC variability shows three distinct stages. During the first stage that lasts until the mid- to late-1970s, AMOC is relatively steady, remaining lower than its long-term (19582007) mean. Thereafter, AMOC intensifies with maximum transports achieved in the mid- to late-1990s. This enhancement is then followed by a weakening trend until the end of our integration period. This sequence of low frequency AMOC variability is consistent with previous studies. Regarding strengthening of AMOC between about the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s, our results support a previously identified variability mechanism where AMOC intensification is connected to increased deep water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic, driven by NAO-related surface fluxes. The simulations tend to show general agreement in their representations of, for example, AMOC, sea surface temperature (SST), and subpolar mixed layer depth variabilities. In particular, the observed variability of the North Atlantic SSTs is captured well by all models. These findings indicate that simulated variability and trends are primarily dictated by the atmospheric datasets which include the influence of ocean dynamics from nature superimposed onto anthropogenic effects. Despite these general agreements, there are many differences among the model solutions, particularly in the spatial structures of variability patterns. For example, the location of the maximum AMOC variability differs among the models between Northern and Southern Hemispheres.

Description: The upstream sources and pathways of the Denmark Strait Overflow Water and their variability have been investigated using a high-resolution model hindcast. This global simulation covers the period from 1948 to 2009 and uses a fine model mesh (1/20°) to resolve mesoscale features and the complex current structure north of Iceland explicitly. The three sources of the Denmark Strait Overflow, the shelfbreak East Greenland Current (EGC), the separated EGC, and the North Icelandic Jet, have been analyzed using Eulerian and Lagrangian diagnostics. The shelfbreak EGC contributes the largest fraction in terms of volume and freshwater transport to the Denmark Strait Overflow and is the main driver of the overflow variability. The North Icelandic Jet contributes the densest water to the Denmark Strait Overflow and shows only small temporal transport variations. During summer, the net volume and freshwater transports to the south are reduced. On interannual time scales, these transports are highly correlated with the large-scale wind stress curl around Iceland and, to some extent, influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced southward transports during positive phases. The Lagrangian trajectories support the existence of a hypothesized overturning loop along the shelfbreak north of Iceland, where water carried by the North Icelandic Irminger Current is transformed and feeds the North Icelandic Jet. Monitoring these two currents and the region north of the Iceland shelfbreak could provide the potential to track long-term changes in the Denmark Strait Overflow and thus also the AMOC.

Description: The North Atlantic Current (NAC) is subject to variability on multiannual to decadal time scales, influencing the transport of volume, heat, and freshwater from the subtropical to the eastern subpolar North Atlantic (NA). Current observational time series are either too short or too episodic to study the processes involved. Here we compare the observed continuous NAC transport time series at the western flank of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR) and repeat hydrographic measurements at the OVIDE line in the eastern Atlantic with the NAC transport and circulation in the high-resolution (1/20°) ocean model configuration VIKING20 (1960–2008). The modeled baroclinic NAC transport relative to 3400 m (24.5 ± 7.1 Sv) at the MAR is only slightly lower than the observed baroclinic mean of 27.4 ± 4.7 Sv from 1993 to 2008, and extends further north by about 0.5°. In the eastern Atlantic, the western NAC (WNAC) carries the bulk of the transport in the model, while transport estimates based on hydrographic measurements from five repeated sections point to a preference for the eastern NAC (ENAC). The model is able to simulate the main features of the subpolar NA, providing confidence to use the model output to analyze the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Model based velocity composites reveal an enhanced NAC transport across the MAR of up to 6.7 Sv during positive NAO phases. Most of that signal (5.4 Sv) is added to the ENAC transport, while the transport of the WNAC was independent of the NAO.

Description: The variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may play a role in sea surface temperature predictions on seasonal to decadal time scales. Therefore, AMOC seasonal cycles are a potential baseline for interpreting predictions. Here we present estimates for the seasonal cycle of transports of volume, temperature, and freshwater associated with the upper limb of the AMOC in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic on the Extended Ellett Line hydrographic section between Scotland and Iceland. Due to weather, ship‐based observations are primarily in summer. Recent glider observations during other seasons present an opportunity to investigate the seasonal variability in the upper layer of the AMOC. First, we document a new method to quality control and merge ship, float, and glider hydrographic observations. This method accounts for the different spatial sampling rates of the three platforms. The merged observations are used to compute seasonal cycles of volume, temperature, and freshwater transports in the Rockall Trough. These estimates are similar to the seasonal cycles in two eddy‐resolving ocean models. Volume transport appears to be the primary factor modulating other Rockall Trough transports. Finally, we show that the weakest transports occur in summer, consistent with seasonal changes in the regional‐scale wind stress curl. Although the seasonal cycle is weak compared to other variability in this region, the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in the Rockall Trough, roughly 0.5–1 Sv about a mean of 3.4 Sv, may account for up to 7–14% of the heat flux between Scotland and Greenland.

Description: We characterise the representation of the Southern Ocean water mass structure and sea ice within a suite of 15 global ocean-ice models run with the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiment Phase II (CORE-II) protocol. The main focus is the representation of the present (1988-2007) mode and intermediate waters, thus framing an analysis of winter and summer mixed layer depths; temperature, salinity, and potential vorticity structure; and temporal variability of sea ice distributions. We also consider the interannual variability over the same 20 year period. Comparisons are made between models as well as to observation-based analyses where available. The CORE-II models exhibit several biases relative to Southern Ocean observations, including an underestimation of the model mean mixed layer depths of mode and intermediate water masses in March (associated with greater ocean surface heat gain), and an overestimation in September (associated with greater high latitude ocean heat loss and a more northward winter sea-ice extent). In addition, the models have cold and fresh/warm and salty water column biases centred near 50 degrees S. Over the 1933-2007 period, the CORE-II models consistently simulate spatially variable trends in sea-ice concentration, surface freshwater fluxes, mixed layer depths, and 200-700 in ocean heat content. In particular, sea-ice coverage around most of the Antarctic continental shelf is reduced, leading to a cooling and freshening of the near surface waters. The shoaling of the mixed layer is associated with increased surface buoyancy gain, except in the Pacific where sea ice is also influential. The models are in disagreement, despite the common CORE-II atmospheric state, in their spatial pattern of the 20-year trends in the mixed layer depth and sea-ice

Description: This study investigates the oceanic response to an enhanced melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. A series of forced ocean simulations with different horizontal resolutions from 0.5° to 0.05° is used. The main focus is to investigate the oceanic behaviour to a freshwater input within models of different horizontal resolutions and differing in the representation of mesoscale processes. In particular, the role of the mesoscale eddies on the spreading of freshwater in the subpolar North Atlantic is assessed. Two melting scenarios are realised, a strong meltwater release of 0.1 Sv as diagnosed by model data of climate models under high CO2 conditions, and a more realistic melting scenario, where the diagnosed melting trend of 0.53 mSv/a from 1990 - 2009 is used. The simulations are based on the NEMO ocean sea-ice model and cover resolutions from coarse 0.5° (ORCA05), to eddy-permitting 0.25° (ORCA025), and to eddy-resolving 0.05° (VIKING20). VIKING20 is a new model development, and is based on a local grid refinement approach to reach grid sizes of about 3 km around Greenland. In the both melting scenarios, the coarse resolution models (ORCA05 and ORCA025) suggest a prominent spreading of the meltwater from the Labrador Sea across the North Atlantic into the Nordic Seas. This hinders the formation of dense water masses, leading to an ongoing reduction in the AMOC. Conversely, results from VIKING20 reveal that mesoscale processes have a distinct potential to counteract the effect of the additional meltwater from Greenland. In comparison to coarser configurations, VIKING20 exhibits an equatorward export of meltwater from the Labrador Sea within the Deep Western Boundary Current and the potential to store meltwater in the northern Gulf Stream recirculation gyre. This results in less meltwater reaching the convection region of the Nordic Seas, and consequently in the realistic melting scenario no response in the AMOC is seen over three decades. The flow path of the North Atlantic Current, in particular the representation of the North-West Corner, is found to be a key factor determining the spread of freshwater in the North Atlantic. The presence of the North-West Corner, realistically reproduced in VIKING20, inhibits an enhanced eastward spreading of meltwater anomalies across the North Atlantic, preventing a pronounced freshwater leakage from the Subpolar Gyre into the Subtropical Gyre via the east Atlantic. This freshwater leakage is enhanced in both coarse configurations, especially in the strong melting case. In this artificial melting scenario the freshwater forcing predominates, such that the equatorward export along the North American coast and the presence of the North-West Corner are of minor importance in determining the oceanic response to meltwater spreading. Whereas in this case all configurations behave similarly and show a decline of the AMOC of about -40 % to -60 % after four decades, the AMOC reacts much less to the realistic melting scenario. These results emphases the need in climate projections to strive for both, realistic Greenland melting rates and represent mesoscale processes properly.

Description: Highlights: • We focus on ACC and Southern Ocean MOC during 1958–2007 in 17 CORE-II forced models. • Most CORE-II simulations are close to eddy saturation. • Most CORE-II simulations are far from showing signs of eddy compensation. • Constant in time or space k results in poor representation of mesoscale eddy effects. • MOC has larger sensitivity than ACC transport even in eddy saturated state. Abstract: In the framework of the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II), we present an analysis of the representation of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in a suite of seventeen global ocean–sea ice models. We focus on the mean, variability and trends of both the ACC and MOC over the 1958–2007 period, and discuss their relationship with the surface forcing. We aim to quantify the degree of eddy saturation and eddy compensation in the models participating in CORE-II, and compare our results with available observations, previous fine-resolution numerical studies and theoretical constraints. Most models show weak ACC transport sensitivity to changes in forcing during the past five decades, and they can be considered to be in an eddy saturated regime. Larger contrasts arise when considering MOC trends, with a majority of models exhibiting significant strengthening of the MOC during the late 20th and early 21st century. Only a few models show a relatively small sensitivity to forcing changes, responding with an intensified eddy-induced circulation that provides some degree of eddy compensation, while still showing considerable decadal trends. Both ACC and MOC interannual variabilities are largely controlled by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Based on these results, models are clustered into two groups. Models with constant or two-dimensional (horizontal) specification of the eddy-induced advection coefficient κ show larger ocean interior decadal trends, larger ACC transport decadal trends and no eddy compensation in the MOC. Eddy-permitting models or models with a three-dimensional time varying κ show smaller changes in isopycnal slopes and associated ACC trends, and partial eddy compensation. As previously argued, a constant in time or space κ is responsible for a poor representation of mesoscale eddy effects and cannot properly simulate the sensitivity of the ACC and MOC to changing surface forcing. Evidence is given for a larger sensitivity of the MOC as compared to the ACC transport, even when approaching eddy saturation. Future process studies designed for disentangling the role of momentum and buoyancy forcing in driving the ACC and MOC are proposed.

Description: Highlights: • Inter-annual to decadal variability in AMOC from CORE-II simulations is presented. • AMOC variability shows three stages, with maximum transports in mid- to late-1990s. • North Atlantic temporal variability features are in good agreement among simulations. • Such agreements suggest variability is dictated by the atmospheric data sets. • Simulations differ in spatial structures of variability due to ocean dynamics. Simulated inter-annual to decadal variability and trends in the North Atlantic for the 1958–2007 period from twenty global ocean – sea-ice coupled models are presented. These simulations are performed as contributions to the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). The study is Part II of our companion paper (Danabasoglu et al., 2014) which documented the mean states in the North Atlantic from the same models. A major focus of the present study is the representation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability in the participating models. Relationships between AMOC variability and those of some other related variables, such as subpolar mixed layer depths, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Labrador Sea upper-ocean hydrographic properties, are also investigated. In general, AMOC variability shows three distinct stages. During the first stage that lasts until the mid- to late-1970s, AMOC is relatively steady, remaining lower than its long-term (1958–2007) mean. Thereafter, AMOC intensifies with maximum transports achieved in the mid- to late-1990s. This enhancement is then followed by a weakening trend until the end of our integration period. This sequence of low frequency AMOC variability is consistent with previous studies. Regarding strengthening of AMOC between about the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s, our results support a previously identified variability mechanism where AMOC intensification is connected to increased deep water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic, driven by NAO-related surface fluxes. The simulations tend to show general agreement in their temporal representations of, for example, AMOC, sea surface temperature (SST), and subpolar mixed layer depth variabilities. In particular, the observed variability of the North Atlantic SSTs is captured well by all models. These findings indicate that simulated variability and trends are primarily dictated by the atmospheric datasets which include the influence of ocean dynamics from nature superimposed onto anthropogenic effects. Despite these general agreements, there are many differences among the model solutions, particularly in the spatial structures of variability patterns. For example, the location of the maximum AMOC variability differs among the models between Northern and Southern Hemispheres.