ALBERT

Description: Highlights • The Danube deep-sea fan offers best conditions for hydrate production. • Gas production out of a hypothetical methane hydrate reservoir was simulated. • Hazard assessment to investigate the hazard of production-induced slope failures. • Factor of Safety against slope failure is not affected by the production process. • Mobilized mass could hit the production site if landslide were to happen. Methane production from gas hydrate reservoirs is only economically viable for hydrate reservoirs in permeable sediments. The most suitable known prospect in European waters is the paleo Danube deep-sea fan in the Bulgarian exclusive economic zone in the Black Sea where a gas hydrate reservoir is found 60 m below the seafloor in water depths of about 1500 m. To investigate the hazards associated with gas production-induced slope failures we carried out a slope stability analysis for this area. Screening of the area based on multibeam bathymetry data shows that the area is overall stable with some critical slopes at the inner levees of the paleo channels. Hydrate production using the depressurization method will increase the effective stresses in the reservoir beyond pre-consolidation stress, which results in sediment compaction and seafloor subsidence. The modeling results show that subsidence would locally be in the order of up to 0.4 m, but it remains confined to the immediate vicinity above the production site. Our simulations show that the Factor of Safety against slope failure (1.27) is not affected by the production process, and it is more likely that a landslide is triggered by an earthquake than by production itself. If a landslide were to happen, the mobilized sediments on the most likely failure plane could generate a landslide that would hit the production site with velocities of up to 10 m s-1. This case study shows that even in the case of production from very shallow gas hydrate reservoirs the threat of naturally occurring slope failures may be greater than that of hydrate production itself and has to be considered carefully in hazard assessments.

Description: Tertiary rift-related intraplate basanites from the Batain basin of northeastern Oman have low SiO2 (〈 45.6 wt.%), high MgO (〉 9.73 wt.%) and moderate to high Cr and Ni contents (Cr 〉 261 ppm, Ni 〉 181 ppm), representing near primary magmas that have undergone fractionation of mainly olivine and magnetite. Rare earth element systematics and p-T estimates suggest that the alkaline rocks are generated by different degrees of partial melting (4–13%) of a spinel-peridotite lithospheric mantle containing residual amphibole. The alkaline rocks show restricted variations of 87Sr/86Sr and 143Nd/144Nd ranging from 0.70340 to 0.70405 and 0.51275 to 0.51284, respectively. Variations in Pb isotopes (206Pb/204Pb: 18.59–18.82, 207Pb/204Pb: 15.54–15.56, 208Pb/204Pb: 38.65–38.98) of the alkaline rocks fall in the range of most OIB. Trace element constraints together with Sr–Nd–Pb isotope composition indicate that assimilation through crustal material did not affect the lavas. Instead, trace element variations can be explained by melting of a lithospheric mantle source that was metasomatized by an OIB-type magma that was accumulated at the base of the lithosphere sometimes in the past. Although only an area of less than 1000 km2 was sampled, magmatic activity lasted for about 5.5 Ma with a virtually continuous activity from 40.7 ± 0.7 to 35.3 ± 0.6 Ma. During this period magma composition was nearly constant, i.e. the degree of melting and the nature of the tapped source did not change significantly over time.

Description: The 541 ± 4 Ma-old magnesian, weakly peraluminous, calc-alkalic Donkerhoek Onanis granite is part of the ca. 6000 km2 large Donkerhoek batholith in the Southern Zone of the Damara orogen of Namibia. Linear major and trace element variations and decreasing MgO, FeO, Al2O3, CaO, K2O, Na2O, Ba and Sr concentrations with increasing SiO2 indicate that this part of the batholith represent a coherent mass and underwent fractional crystallization processes. The Donkerhoek Onanis granites are isotopically evolved (initial εNd: −4.7 to −12.3, initial 87Sr/86Sr: 0.7099–0.7157) with moderately radiogenic Pb isotope ratios (206Pb/204Pb: 17.26–18.22; 207Pb/204Pb: 15.59–15.67; 208Pb/204Pb: 37.60–38.06). Beside heterogeneities imparted by the sources, an evaluation of LREE fractionation and Nd isotope data suggests that AFC processes also modified some samples. Based on the chemical and isotope data, the Donkerhoek Onanis granites cannot be derived by partial melting of Al- and Fe-rich metasedimentary rocks of the Kuiseb formation in which they intruded. Instead, melting of meta-igneous crustal sources with Proterozoic crustal residence ages is more likely. Three igneous to meta-igneous rock suites from the area (Matchless amphibolites, Proterozoic mafic to felsic gneisses from the southern Kalahari craton basement, syn-tectonic Salem granodiorites to granites) are potential sources. An evaluation of chemical and isotope data suggests that remelting of early syn-orogenic Salem-type granites is the most likely process which would also explain the existence of ca. 563 ± 4 Ma-old zircon in the Donkerhoek Onanis granites. Comparison of the Donkerhoek Onanis granites with experimentally derived melt compositions from an intermediate igneous parent indicates temperatures between 800 and 850 °C. It is suggested that the Pan-African igneous activity in this part of the Damara Belt was a moderate-temperature intra-crustal event. Although there are some compositional similarities with juvenile granites generated in subduction zones, unradiogenic Pb isotope ratios and moderately radiogenic Sr and unradiogenic Nd isotopes suggest that reprocessed crustal rocks are more likely sources. Previously obtained high δ18O values of the Donkerhoek Onanis granites ranging from 11.8 to 13.6‰, covering the range of δ18O values obtained on Salem-type granites from the area (12.5–13.3‰) confirm this view. In contrast to igneous processes along active continental margins that produce juvenile batholiths with calc-alkaline affinities, this igneous event was not a major crust-forming episode and the Donkerhoek Onanis granites represent reprocessed crustal material.

Description: Highlights: • We compare the simulated Arctic Ocean in 15 global ocean–sea ice models. • There is a large spread in temperature bias in the Arctic Ocean between the models. • Warm bias models have a strong temperature anomaly of inflow of Atlantic Water. • Dense outflows formed on Arctic shelves are not captured accurately in the models. In this paper we compare the simulated Arctic Ocean in 15 global ocean-sea ice models in the framework of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments, phase II (CORE-II). Most of these models are the ocean and sea-ice components of the coupled climate models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments. We mainly focus on the hydrography of the Arctic interior, the state of Atlantic Water layer and heat and volume transports at the gateways of the Davis Strait, the Bering Strait, the Fram Strait and the Barents Sea Opening. We found that there is a large spread in temperature in the Arctic Ocean between the models, and generally large differences compared to the observed temperature at intermediate depths. Warm bias models have a strong temperature anomaly of inflow of the Atlantic Water entering the Arctic Ocean through the Fram Strait. Another process that is not represented accurately in the CORE-II models is the formation of cold and dense water, originating on the eastern shelves. In the cold bias models, excessive cold water forms in the Barents Sea and spreads into the Arctic Ocean through the St. Anna Through. There is a large spread in the simulated mean heat and volume transports through the Fram Strait and the Barents Sea Opening. The models agree more on the decadal variability, to a large degree dictated by the common atmospheric forcing. We conclude that the CORE-II model study helps us to understand the crucial biases in the Arctic Ocean. The current coarse resolution state-of-the-art ocean models need to be improved in accurate representation of the Atlantic Water inflow into the Arctic and density currents coming from the shelves.

Description: We characterise the representation of the Southern Ocean water mass structure and sea ice within a suite of 15 global ocean-ice models run with the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiment Phase II (CORE-II) protocol. The main focus is the representation of the present (1988-2007) mode and intermediate waters, thus framing an analysis of winter and summer mixed layer depths; temperature, salinity, and potential vorticity structure; and temporal variability of sea ice distributions. We also consider the interannual variability over the same 20 year period. Comparisons are made between models as well as to observation-based analyses where available. The CORE-II models exhibit several biases relative to Southern Ocean observations, including an underestimation of the model mean mixed layer depths of mode and intermediate water masses in March (associated with greater ocean surface heat gain), and an overestimation in September (associated with greater high latitude ocean heat loss and a more northward winter sea-ice extent). In addition, the models have cold and fresh/warm and salty water column biases centred near 50 degrees S. Over the 1933-2007 period, the CORE-II models consistently simulate spatially variable trends in sea-ice concentration, surface freshwater fluxes, mixed layer depths, and 200-700 in ocean heat content. In particular, sea-ice coverage around most of the Antarctic continental shelf is reduced, leading to a cooling and freshening of the near surface waters. The shoaling of the mixed layer is associated with increased surface buoyancy gain, except in the Pacific where sea ice is also influential. The models are in disagreement, despite the common CORE-II atmospheric state, in their spatial pattern of the 20-year trends in the mixed layer depth and sea-ice

Description: Highlights • Twenty-six samples from single volcanic plugs from the area between Siebengebirge and Westerwald are described. • New 39Ar/40Ar whole rock ages and major- and trace-element and radiogenic isotope data are presented. • Fractional crystallization and crustal contamination processes are modeled using trace and major elements. • Partial melting processes are modeled using REE trace element ratios and P-T estimates are presented using geothermobarometric calculations. Abstract New 39Ar/40Ar ages and major- and trace-element and radiogenic isotope data are presented for basanites and alkali basalts from the transition area between the Westerwald and Siebengebirge volcanic fields (Germany) that belongs to the Central European Volcanic Province (CEVP). The 39Ar/40Ar ages indicate ages of c. 24 and c. 5 Ma which are fully compatible with previous K/Ar ages indicating that the evolution of this volcanic field belongs to the Westerwald area (28-22 Ma and 5 Ma) rather than to the Siebengebirge area (26-23 Ma). Based on the occurrence of 〉 30 isolated volcanic plugs with a simple igneous history, this volcanic field can be viewed as a monogenetic volcanic field. Compositions of some basanites are primitive, whereas others and the alkali basalts show decreasing Cr and Ni contents and CaO/Al2O3 ratios. However, increasing TiO2, Al2O3 and incompatible elements (Sr, Zr, Y, Hf, Ta) concentrations with decreasing MgO indicating fractionation of mainly olivine with minor amounts of clinopyroxene and spinel can be noticed. Rare Earth Element systematics suggest that most of the alkaline rocks are generated by different degrees of melting (5-10%) of a garnet-bearing peridotite containing some residual amphibole. Negative anomalies of Rb and K in primitive mantle-normalized diagrams and a lack of Ba/Rb fractionation suggest that amphibole was the major OH-bearing mineral phase in the mantle. The alkaline rocks have a restricted range in 87Sr/86Sr and 143Nd/144Nd ratios ranging from 0.7033 to 0.7044 and from 0.51275 to 0.51285, respectively. Lead isotope compositions (206Pb/204Pb: 19.21-19.65; 207Pb/204Pb: 15.62-15.67; 208Pb/204Pb: 39.10-39.46) of the alkaline rocks are within the range of most OIB in which the higher values approach the composition of the European Asthenospheric Reservoir (EAR). The correlation between Sr and Nd isotopes and trace element constraints (Ce/Pb; Nb/U) indicate that for some samples interaction with crustal rocks during fractionation has occurred. Miocene intraplate basaltic volcanism in the area probably occurred as a result of minor „baby plume“ activity. Each volcanic plug records evidence of a specific stage of fractionation with or without assimilation; however, in summary the lavas plot on a single fractionation path. This implies that during evolution of the volcanic field initial melting took place in the asthenosphere or at the lithosphere-asthenosphere interface. The melts moved through the lithospheric mantle and stagnated at crustal levels, however the observed fractionation paths suggests that they were fed from a single reservoir. This model, which involves small-scale plume impact followed by asthenosphere–lithosphere interaction together with minor crustal contamination, should also be applicable to other intra-continental rift-related areas.

Description: Highlights: • We focus on ACC and Southern Ocean MOC during 1958–2007 in 17 CORE-II forced models. • Most CORE-II simulations are close to eddy saturation. • Most CORE-II simulations are far from showing signs of eddy compensation. • Constant in time or space k results in poor representation of mesoscale eddy effects. • MOC has larger sensitivity than ACC transport even in eddy saturated state. Abstract: In the framework of the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II), we present an analysis of the representation of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in a suite of seventeen global ocean–sea ice models. We focus on the mean, variability and trends of both the ACC and MOC over the 1958–2007 period, and discuss their relationship with the surface forcing. We aim to quantify the degree of eddy saturation and eddy compensation in the models participating in CORE-II, and compare our results with available observations, previous fine-resolution numerical studies and theoretical constraints. Most models show weak ACC transport sensitivity to changes in forcing during the past five decades, and they can be considered to be in an eddy saturated regime. Larger contrasts arise when considering MOC trends, with a majority of models exhibiting significant strengthening of the MOC during the late 20th and early 21st century. Only a few models show a relatively small sensitivity to forcing changes, responding with an intensified eddy-induced circulation that provides some degree of eddy compensation, while still showing considerable decadal trends. Both ACC and MOC interannual variabilities are largely controlled by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Based on these results, models are clustered into two groups. Models with constant or two-dimensional (horizontal) specification of the eddy-induced advection coefficient κ show larger ocean interior decadal trends, larger ACC transport decadal trends and no eddy compensation in the MOC. Eddy-permitting models or models with a three-dimensional time varying κ show smaller changes in isopycnal slopes and associated ACC trends, and partial eddy compensation. As previously argued, a constant in time or space κ is responsible for a poor representation of mesoscale eddy effects and cannot properly simulate the sensitivity of the ACC and MOC to changing surface forcing. Evidence is given for a larger sensitivity of the MOC as compared to the ACC transport, even when approaching eddy saturation. Future process studies designed for disentangling the role of momentum and buoyancy forcing in driving the ACC and MOC are proposed.

Description: Highlights: • Inter-annual to decadal variability in AMOC from CORE-II simulations is presented. • AMOC variability shows three stages, with maximum transports in mid- to late-1990s. • North Atlantic temporal variability features are in good agreement among simulations. • Such agreements suggest variability is dictated by the atmospheric data sets. • Simulations differ in spatial structures of variability due to ocean dynamics. Simulated inter-annual to decadal variability and trends in the North Atlantic for the 1958–2007 period from twenty global ocean – sea-ice coupled models are presented. These simulations are performed as contributions to the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). The study is Part II of our companion paper (Danabasoglu et al., 2014) which documented the mean states in the North Atlantic from the same models. A major focus of the present study is the representation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability in the participating models. Relationships between AMOC variability and those of some other related variables, such as subpolar mixed layer depths, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Labrador Sea upper-ocean hydrographic properties, are also investigated. In general, AMOC variability shows three distinct stages. During the first stage that lasts until the mid- to late-1970s, AMOC is relatively steady, remaining lower than its long-term (1958–2007) mean. Thereafter, AMOC intensifies with maximum transports achieved in the mid- to late-1990s. This enhancement is then followed by a weakening trend until the end of our integration period. This sequence of low frequency AMOC variability is consistent with previous studies. Regarding strengthening of AMOC between about the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s, our results support a previously identified variability mechanism where AMOC intensification is connected to increased deep water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic, driven by NAO-related surface fluxes. The simulations tend to show general agreement in their temporal representations of, for example, AMOC, sea surface temperature (SST), and subpolar mixed layer depth variabilities. In particular, the observed variability of the North Atlantic SSTs is captured well by all models. These findings indicate that simulated variability and trends are primarily dictated by the atmospheric datasets which include the influence of ocean dynamics from nature superimposed onto anthropogenic effects. Despite these general agreements, there are many differences among the model solutions, particularly in the spatial structures of variability patterns. For example, the location of the maximum AMOC variability differs among the models between Northern and Southern Hemispheres.

Description: Highlights: • Arctic sea ice extent and solid freshwater in 14 CORE-II models are inter-compared. • The models better represent the variability than the mean state. • The September ice extent trend is reasonably represented by the model ensemble mean. • The descending trend of ice thickness is underestimated compared to observations. • The models underestimate the reduction in solid freshwater content in recent years. Abstract: The Arctic Ocean simulated in fourteen global ocean-sea ice models in the framework of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments, phase II (CORE II) is analyzed. The focus is on the Arctic sea ice extent, the solid freshwater (FW) sources and solid freshwater content (FWC). Available observations are used for model evaluation. The variability of sea ice extent and solid FW budget is more consistently reproduced than their mean state in the models. The descending trend of September sea ice extent is well simulated in terms of the model ensemble mean. Models overestimating sea ice thickness tend to underestimate the descending trend of September sea ice extent. The models underestimate the observed sea ice thinning trend by a factor of two. When averaged on decadal time scales, the variation of Arctic solid FWC is contributed by those of both sea ice production and sea ice transport, which are out of phase in time. The solid FWC decreased in the recent decades, caused mainly by the reduction in sea ice thickness. The models did not simulate the acceleration of sea ice thickness decline, leading to an underestimation of solid FWC trend after 2000. The common model behavior, including the tendency to underestimate the trend of sea ice thickness and March sea ice extent, remains to be improved.

Description: Highlights: • Arctic liquid freshwater budget simulated in 14 CORE-II models is studied. • The models better represent the temporal variability than the mean state. • Multi-model mean (MMM) FW fluxes compare well with observations. • MMM FWC shows an upward trend in the recent years, with an underestimated rate. • FW flux interannual variability is more consistent where volume flux determines it. Abstract: The Arctic Ocean simulated in 14 global ocean-sea ice models in the framework of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments, phase II (CORE-II) is analyzed in this study. The focus is on the Arctic liquid freshwater (FW) sources and freshwater content (FWC). The models agree on the interannual variability of liquid FW transport at the gateways where the ocean volume transport determines the FW transport variability. The variation of liquid FWC is induced by both the surface FW flux (associated with sea ice production) and lateral liquid FW transport, which are in phase when averaged on decadal time scales. The liquid FWC shows an increase starting from the mid-1990s, caused by the reduction of both sea ice formation and liquid FW export, with the former being more significant in most of the models. The mean state of the FW budget is less consistently simulated than the temporal variability. The model ensemble means of liquid FW transport through the Arctic gateways compare well with observations. On average, the models have too high mean FWC, weaker upward trends of FWC in the recent decade than the observation, and low consistency in the temporal variation of FWC spatial distribution, which needs to be further explored for the purpose of model development.