Publication Date:
2020-01-02
Description:
A probabilistic hazard analysis of tsunami generated by subaqueous volcanic explosion is
applied to the Campi Flegrei caldera (Campania, Italy). An event tree is developed to quantify
the tsunami hazard due to the submarine explosions by: i) defining potential size classes of explosion magnitude on the basis of past volcanic activity in the Campi Flegrei caldera and sites in the underwater part of the caldera; ii) simulating the generation and propagation of the consequent tsunami waves able to reach the coasts of the Campania region for all combinations of tsunami-generating vents and sizes; and iii) quantifying the tsunami
probability and relative uncertainty, conditional upon the occurrence of an underwater
eruption at Campi Flegrei. Tsunami hazard generated by subaqueous volcanic explosions is
considered crucial because of its potential high impact on the densely populated coastal areas
of the Pozzuoli Bay and Gulf of Naples even if the probability for eruptions in the submarine
part of the caldera is certainly low. The tsunami hazard analysis is presented using conditional hazard curves and maps, that is calculating the probability (and relative uncertainties) of exceeding given tsunami intensity thresholds (wave amplitudes at the coast), given the occurrence of a subaqueous eruption. The results indicate that a significant tsunami hazard exists in many areas of the Bay of Naples.
Type:
Article
,
PeerReviewed
Format:
text
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