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  • 1
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    Characterization of a landslide-triggered debris flow at a rainforest-covered mountain region in Brazil (2021)
    Springer Netherlands
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-15
    Description: Debris flows represent great hazard to humans due to their high destructive power. Understanding their hydrogeomorphic dynamics is fundamental in hazard assessment studies, especially in subtropical and tropical regions where debris flows have scarcely been studied when compared to other mass-wasting processes. Thus, this study aims at systematically analyzing the meteorological and geomorphological factors that characterize a landslide-triggered debris flow at the Pedra Branca catchment (Serra do Mar, Brazil), to quantify the debris flow’s magnitude, peak discharge and velocity. A magnitude comparison with empirical equations (Italian Alps, Taiwan, Serra do Mar) is also conducted. The meteorological analysis is based on satellite data and rain gauge measurements, while the geomorphological characterization is based on terrestrial and aerial investigations, with high spatial resolution. The results indicate that it was a large-sized stony debris flow, with a total magnitude of 120,195 m〈sup〉3〈/sup〉, a peak discharge of 2146.7 m〈sup〉3〈/sup〉 s〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉 and a peak velocity of 26.5 m s〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉. The debris flow was triggered by a 188-mm rainfall in 3 h (maximum intensity of 128 mm h〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉), with an estimated return period of 15 to 20 years, which, combined with the intense accumulation of on-channel debris (ca. 37,000 m〈sup〉3〈/sup〉), indicates that new high-magnitude debris flows in the catchment and the region are likely to occur within the next two decades. The knowledge of the potential frequency and magnitude (F–M) can support the creation of F–M relationships for Serra do Mar, a prerequisite for reliable hazard management and monitoring programs.
    Description: Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002322
    Description: Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003593
    Description: Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen (1020)
    Keywords: ddc:551.3 ; Shallow landslides ; Magnitude ; Serra do Mar ; Forensic geomorphological analysis ; Mass movements ; Bedrock rivers
    Language: English
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  • 2
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    The Itajaí foreland basin: a tectono-sedimentary record of the Ediacaran period, Southern Brazil (2018)
    Springer-Verlag | Berlin/Heidelberg
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    Publication Date: 2021-03-29
    Description: The Itajaí Basin located in the southern border of the Luís Alves Microplate is considered as a peripheral foreland basin related to the Dom Feliciano Belt. It presents an excellent record of the Ediacaran period, and its upper parts display the best Brazilian example of Precambrian turbiditic deposits. The basal succession of Itajaí Group is represented by sandstones and conglomerates (Baú Formation) deposited in alluvial and deltaic-fan systems. The marine upper sequences correspond to the Ribeirão Carvalho (channelized and non-channelized proximal silty-argillaceous rhythmic turbidites), Ribeirão Neisse (arkosic sandstones and siltites), and Ribeirão do Bode (distal silty turbidites) formations. The Apiúna Formation felsic volcanic rocks crosscut the sedimentary succession. The Cambrian Subida leucosyenogranite represents the last felsic magmatic activity to affect the Itajaí Basin. The Brusque Group and the Florianópolis Batholith are proposed as source areas for the sediments of the upper sequence. For the lower continental units the source areas are the Santa Catarina, São Miguel and Camboriú complexes. The lack of any oceanic crust in the Itajaí Basin suggests that the marine units were deposited in a restricted, internal sea. The sedimentation started around 600 Ma and ended before 560 Ma as indicated by the emplacement of rhyolitic domes. The Itajaí Basin is temporally and tectonically correlated with the Camaquã Basin in Rio Grande do Sul and the Arroyo del Soldado/Piriápolis Basin in Uruguay. It also has several tectono-sedimentary characteristics in common with the African-equivalent Nama Basin.
    Keywords: Dom Feliciano Belt; Ediacaran; Foreland basin; U–Pb SHRIMP ages; Provenance ; 551 ; Earth Sciences; Geophysics/Geodesy; Geology
    Language: English
    Type: article , publishedVersion
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    CITATION GEO-LEO
  • 3
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    A direct method to detect deterministic and stochastic properties of data (2022)
    In:  New Journal of Physics
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-11-18
    Description: A fundamental question of data analysis is how to distinguish noise corrupted deterministic chaotic dynamics from time-(un)correlated stochastic fluctuations when just short length data is available. Despite its importance, direct tests of chaos vs stochasticity in finite time series still lack of a definitive quantification. Here we present a novel approach based on recurrence analysis, a nonlinear approach to deal with data. The main idea is the identification of how recurrence microstates and permutation patterns are affected by time reversibility of data, and how its behavior can be used to distinguish stochastic and deterministic data. We demonstrate the efficiency of the method for a bunch of paradigmatic systems under strong noise influence, as well as for real-world data, covering electronic circuit, sound vocalization and human speeches, neuronal activity, heart beat data, and geomagnetic indexes. Our results support the conclusion that the method distinguishes well deterministic from stochastic fluctuations in simulated and empirical data even under strong noise corruption, finding applications involving various areas of science and technology. In particular, for deterministic signals, the quantification of chaotic behavior may be of fundamental importance because it is believed that chaotic properties of some systems play important functional roles, opening doors to a better understanding and/or control of the physical mechanisms behind the generation of the signals.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 4
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    Assessing the grapevine crop water stress indicator over the flowering-veraison phase and the potential yield lose rate in important European wine regions (2022)
    In:  Agricultural Water Management
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-04-26
    Description: In Europe, most of vineyards are managed under rainfed conditions, where water deficit has become increasingly an issue. The flowering-veraison phenophase represents an important period for vine response to water stress, which is known to depend on variety characteristics, soil and climate conditions. In this paper, we have carried out a retrospective analysis for important European wine regions over 1986–2015, with objectives to assess the mean Crop Water Stress Indicator (CWSI) during flowering-veraison phase, and potential Yield Lose Rate (YLR) due to seasonal cumulative water stress. Moreover, we also investigate if advanced flowering-veraison phase can lead to alleviated CWSI under recent-past conditions, thus contributing to reduced YLR. A process-based grapevine model is employed, which has been extensively calibrated for simulating both flowering and veraison stages using location-specific observations representing 10 different varieties. Subsequently, grid-based modelling is implemented with gridded climate and soil datasets and calibrated phenology parameters. The findings suggest wine regions with higher mean CWSI of flowering-veraison phase tend to have higher potential YLR. However, contrasting patterns are found between wine regions in France-Germany-Luxembourg and Italy-Portugal-Spain. The former tends to have slight-to-moderate drought conditions (CWSI〈0.5) along with a negligible-to-moderate YLR (〈30%), whereas the latter is found to have severe-to-extreme drought (CWSI〉0.5) and substantial YLR (〉40%). Wine regions prone to a high drought risk (CWSI〉0.75) are also identified, which are concentrated in southern Mediterranean Europe. Advanced flowering-veraison phase over 1986–2015, could have benefited from more spring precipitation and cooler temperatures for wine regions of Italy-Portugal-Spain, leading to reduced mean CWSI and YLR. For those of France-Germany-Luxembourg, this can have reduced flowering-veraison precipitation, but prevalent reductions of YLR are also found, possibly due to shifted phase towards a cooler growing-season with reduced evaporative demands. Our study demonstrates flowering-verasion water deficit is critical for potential yield, which can have different impacts between Central and Southern European wine regions. This phase can be advanced under a warmer climate, thus having important implications for European rainfed vineyards. The overall outcome may provide new insights for appropriate viticultural management of seasonal water deficits under climate change.
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Projections of Climate Change Impacts on Flowering-Veraison Water Deficits for Riesling and Müller-Thurgau in Germany (2022)
    In:  Remote Sensing
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-04-27
    Description: With global warming, grapevine is expected to be increasingly exposed to water deficits occurring at various development stages. In this study, we aimed to investigate the potential impacts of projected climate change on water deficits from the flowering to veraison period for two main white wine cultivars (Riesling and Müller-Thurgau) in Germany. A process-based soil-crop model adapted for grapevine was utilized to simulate the flowering-veraison crop water stress indicator (CWSI) of these two varieties between 1976–2005 (baseline) and 2041–2070 (future period) based on a suite of bias-adjusted regional climate model (RCM) simulations under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Our evaluation indicates that the model can capture the early-ripening (Müller-Thurgau) and late-ripening (Riesling) traits, with a mean bias of prediction of ≤2 days and a well-reproduced inter-annual variability for more than 60 years. Under climate projections, the flowering stage is advanced by 10–20 days (higher in RCP8.5) between the two varieties, whereas a slightly stronger advancement is found for Müller-Thurgau than for Riesling for the veraison stage. As a result, the flowering-veraison phenophase is mostly shortened for Müller-Thurgau, whereas it is extended by up to two weeks for Riesling in cool and high-elevation areas. The length of phenophase plays an important role in projected changes of flowering-veraison mean temperature and precipitation. The late-ripening trait of Riesling makes it more exposed to increased summer temperature (mainly in August), resulting in a higher mean temperature increase for Riesling (1.5–2.5 °C) than for Müller-Thurgau (1–2 °C). As a result, an overall increased CWSI by up to 15% (ensemble median) is obtained for both varieties, whereas the upper (95th) percentile of simulations shows a strong signal of increased water deficit by up to 30%, mostly in the current winegrowing regions. Intensified water deficit stress can represent a major threat for high-quality white wine production, as only mild water deficits are acceptable. Nevertheless, considerable variabilities of CWSI were discovered among RCMs, highlighting the importance of efforts towards reducing uncertainties in climate change impact assessment.
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Cold atoms in space: community workshop summary and proposed road-map (2022)
    In:  EPJ Quantum Technology
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-07-27
    Description: We summarise the discussions at a virtual Community Workshop on Cold Atoms in Space concerning the status of cold atom technologies, the prospective scientific and societal opportunities offered by their deployment in space, and the developments needed before cold atoms could be operated in space. The cold atom technologies discussed include atomic clocks, quantum gravimeters and accelerometers, and atom interferometers. Prospective applications include metrology, geodesy and measurement of terrestrial mass change due to, e.g., climate change, and fundamental science experiments such as tests of the equivalence principle, searches for dark matter, measurements of gravitational waves and tests of quantum mechanics. We review the current status of cold atom technologies and outline the requirements for their space qualification, including the development paths and the corresponding technical milestones, and identifying possible pathfinder missions to pave the way for missions to exploit the full potential of cold atoms in space. Finally, we present a first draft of a possible road-map for achieving these goals, that we propose for discussion by the interested cold atom, Earth Observation, fundamental physics and other prospective scientific user communities, together with the European Space Agency (ESA) and national space and research funding agencies.
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Identification of single- and double-well coherence–incoherence patterns by the binary distance matrix (2023)
    In:  Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-16
    Description: The study of chimera states or, more generally, coherence–incoherence patterns has led to the development of several tools for their identification and characterization. In this work, we extend the eigenvalue decomposition method to distinguish between single-well (SW) and double-well (DW) patterns. By applying our method, we are able to identify the following four types of dynamical patterns in a ring of nonlocally coupled Chua circuits and nonlocally coupled cubic maps: SW cluster, SW coherence–incoherence pattern, DW cluster, and DW coherence–incoherence. In a ring-star network of Chua circuits, we investigate the influence of adding a central node on the spatio-temporal patterns. Our results show that increasing the coupling with the central node favors the occurrence of SW coherence–incoherence states. We observe that the boundaries of the attraction basins resemble fractal and riddled structures.
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Performance of seasonal forecasts for the flowering and veraison of two major Portuguese grapevine varieties (2023)
    In:  Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-10
    Description: Seasonal phenology forecasts are becoming increasingly demanded by winegrowers and viticulturists. Forecast performance needs to be investigated over space and time before practical applications. We assess seasonal forecast performance (skill, probability and accuracy) in predicting flowering and veraison stages of two representative varieties in Portugal over 1993–2017. The state-of-the-art forecast system ECMWF-SEAS5 provides 7-month seasonal forecasts and is coupled with a locally adapted phenology model. Overall, findings illustrate the dependence of forecast performance on initialization timings, regions and predicting subjects (stages and varieties). Forecast performance improves by delaying the initialization timing and only forecasts initialized on April 1st show better skills than climatology on predicting phenology terciles (early/normal/late). The considerable bias of daily values of seasonal climate predictions can represent the main barrier to accurate forecasts. Better prediction performance is consistently found in Central-Southern regions compared to Northern regions, attributing to an earlier phenology occurrence with a shorter forecast length. Comparable predictive skills between flowering and veraison for both varieties imply better predictability in summer. Consequently, promising seasonal phenology predictions are foreseen in Central-Southern wine regions using forecasts initialized on April 1st with approximately 1–2/3–4 months lead time for flowering/veraison: potential prediction errors are ∼2 weeks, along with an overall moderate forecast skill on categorical events. However, considerable inter-annual variability of forecast performance over the same classified phenology years reflects the substantial influence of climate variability. This may represent the main challenge for reliable forecasts in Mediterranean regions. Recommendations are suggested for methodological innovations and practical applications towards reliable regional phenology forecasts.
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Venus Evolution Through Time: Key Science Questions, Selected Mission Concepts and Future Investigations (2023)
    In:  Space Science Reviews
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    Publication Date: 2024-01-17
    Description: In this work we discuss various selected mission concepts addressing Venus evolution through time. More specifically, we address investigations and payload instrument concepts supporting scientific goals and open questions presented in the companion articles of this volume. Also included are their related investigations (observations & modeling) and discussion of which measurements and future data products are needed to better constrain Venus’ atmosphere, climate, surface, interior and habitability evolution through time. A new fleet of Venus missions has been selected, and new mission concepts will continue to be considered for future selections. Missions under development include radar-equipped ESA-led EnVision M5 orbiter mission (European Space Agency 2021), NASA-JPL’s VERITAS orbiter mission (Smrekar et al. 2022a), NASA-GSFC’s DAVINCI entry probe/flyby mission (Garvin et al. 2022a). The data acquired with the VERITAS, DAVINCI, and EnVision from the end of this decade will fundamentally improve our understanding of the planet’s long term history, current activity and evolutionary path. We further describe future mission concepts and measurements beyond the current framework of selected missions, as well as the synergies between these mission concepts, ground-based and space-based observatories and facilities, laboratory measurements, and future algorithmic or modeling activities that pave the way for the development of a Venus program that extends into the 2040s (Wilson et al. 2022).
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Calibration for an Ensemble of Grapevine Phenology Models under Different Optimization Algorithms (2023)
    In:  Agronomy
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    Publication Date: 2024-03-06
    Description: Vine phenology modelling is increasingly important for winegrowers and viticulturists. Model calibration is often required before practical applications. However, when multiple models and optimization methods are applied for different varieties, it is rarely known which factor tends to mostly affect the calibration results. We mainly aim to investigate the main source of the variability in the modelling errors for the flowering timings of two important varieties of vine in the Douro Demarcated Region (DDR) of Portugal; this is based on five phenology model simulations that use optimal parameters and that are estimated by three optimization algorithms (MLE, SA and SCE-UA). Our results indicate that the main source of the variability in calibration can be affected by the initially assumed parameter boundary. Restricting the initial parameter distribution to a narrow range impedes the algorithm from exploring the full parameter space and searching for optimal parameters. This can lead to the largest variation in different models. At an identified appropriate boundary, the difference between the two varieties represents the largest source of uncertainty, while the choice of algorithm for calibration contributes least to the overall uncertainty. The smaller variability among different models or algorithms (tools for analysis) compared to between different varieties could indicate the overall reliability of the calibration. All optimization algorithms show similar results in terms of the obtained goodness-of-fit: the RMSE (MAE) is 5–6 (4–5) days with a negligible mean bias and moderately good R2 (0.5–0.6) for the ensemble median predictor. Nevertheless, a similar predictive performance can result from differently estimated parameter values, due to the equifinality or multi-modal issue in which different parameter combinations give similar results. This mainly occurs for models with a non-linear structure compared to those with a near-linear one. Yet, the former models are found to outperform the latter ones in predicting the flowering timing of the two varieties in the DDR. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of carefully defining the initial parameter boundary and decomposing the total variance of prediction errors. This study is expected to bring new insights that will help to better inform users about the importance of choice when these factors are involved in calibration. Nonetheless, the importance of each factor can change depending on the specific situation. Details of how the optimization methods are applied and of the continuous model improvement are important.
    Language: English
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