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  • Articles  (120)
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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Science Ltd
    Global change biology 4 (1998), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1365-2486
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: An asynchronously coupled global atmosphere–biome model is used to assess the stability of the atmosphere–vegetation system under present-day conditions of solar irradiation and sea-surface temperatures. When initialized with different land-surface conditions (1, the continents, except for regions of inland ice, completely covered with forest; 2, with grassland; 3, with (dark) desert; and 4, with (bright) sand desert), the atmosphere–biome model finds two equilibrium solutions: the first solution yields the present-day distribution of subtropical deserts, the second reveals a moister climate in North Africa and Central East Asia and thereby a northward shift of vegetation particularly in the south-western Sahara. The first solution is obtained with initial condition 4, and the second with 1, 2, 3. When comparing these results with an earlier study of biogeophysical feedback in the African and Asian monsoon area, it can be concluded that North Africa is probably the region on Earth which is most sensitive considering bifurcations of the atmosphere–vegetation system at the global scale.
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Science Ltd
    Global change biology 11 (2005), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1365-2486
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Predictions of the effects of climate change on the extent of forests, savannas and deserts are usually based on simple response models derived from actual vegetation distributions. In this review, we show two major problems with the implicitly assumed straightforward cause–effect relationship. Firstly, several studies suggest that vegetation itself may have considerable effects on regional climate implying a positive feedback, which can potentially lead to large-scale hysteresis. Secondly, vegetation ecologists have found that effects of plants on microclimate and soils can cause a microscale positive feedback, implying that critical precipitation conditions for colonization of a site may differ from those for disappearance from that site. We argue that it is important to integrate these nonlinearities at disparate scales in models to produce more realistic predictions of potential effects of climate change and deforestation.
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  • 3
    ISSN: 1365-2486
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: We assess the role of changing natural (volcanic, aerosol, insolation) and anthropogenic (CO2 emissions, land cover) forcings on the global climate system over the last 150 years using an earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2. We apply several datasets of historical land-use reconstructions: the cropland dataset by Ramankutty & Foley (1999) (R&F), the HYDE land cover dataset of Klein Goldewijk (2001), and the land-use emissions data from Houghton & Hackler (2002). Comparison between the simulated and observed temporal evolution of atmospheric CO2 and δ13CO2 are used to evaluate these datasets. To check model uncertainty, CLIMBER-2 was coupled to the more complex Lund–Potsdam–Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model.In simulation with R&F dataset, biogeophysical mechanisms due to land cover changes tend to decrease global air temperature by 0.26°C, while biogeochemical mechanisms act to warm the climate by 0.18°C. The net effect on climate is negligible on a global scale, but pronounced over the land in the temperate and high northern latitudes where a cooling due to an increase in land surface albedo offsets the warming due to land-use CO2 emissions.Land cover changes led to estimated increases in atmospheric CO2 of between 22 and 43 ppmv. Over the entire period 1800–2000, simulated δ13CO2 with HYDE compares most favourably with ice core during 1850–1950 and Cape Grim data, indicating preference of earlier land clearance in HYDE over R&F. In relative terms, land cover forcing corresponds to 25–49% of the observed growth in atmospheric CO2. This contribution declined from 36–60% during 1850–1960 to 4–35% during 1960–2000. CLIMBER-2-LPJ simulates the land cover contribution to atmospheric CO2 growth to decrease from 68% during 1900–1960 to 12% in the 1980s. Overall, our simulations show a decline in the relative role of land cover changes for atmospheric CO2 increase during the last 150 years.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 4
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] A global coupled ocean–atmosphere model of intermediate complexity is used to simulate the equilibrium climate of both today and the Last Glacial Maximum, around 21,000 years ago. The model successfully predicts the atmospheric and oceanic circulations, temperature distribution, hydrological ...
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 9 (1993), S. 71-80 
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract A large-scale sea-ice - oceanic mixed-layer model for the Southern Ocean is forced with daily atmospheric fields from operational numerical weather prediction analyses. The strength of the atmospheric forcing is modified considering atmospheric surface-layer physics, which is itself directly dependent on the instantaneous sea-ice condition provided by the sea-ice model. In earlier applications, the atmospheric drag on sea ice was computed from the local momentum transfer over ice. In the present study, this is replaced by a large-scale momentum flux, which is characterized by a large-scale stability function and a large-scale roughness length. The large-scale roughness length depends on the local skin drags and on the form drag, where the latter is given as a function of the ice-plus-snow freeboard and the ice concentration, both provided by the sea-ice model. The thermodynamic part of the calculation is given by the local fluxes, which depend on the local stability of the atmospheric surface layer. This, physically more reasonable, description of the largescale dynamic forcing generally leads to an increase of the momentum transfer via an increase of the roughness length and a decrease of the stability in the atmospheric surface layer. Finally, this yields improved model results, especially in terms of a more dynamic pattern of the ice-thickness distribution.
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 9 (1994), S. 235-243 
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract. The biome model of Prentice et al. (1992a) is used to predict global patterns of potential natural plant formations, or biomes, from climatologies simulated by ECHAM, a model used for climate simulations at the Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie. This study is undertaken in order to show the advantage of this biome model in diagnosing the performance of a climate model and assessing effects of past and future climate changes predicted by a climate model. Good overall agreement is found between global patterns of biomes computed from observed and simulated data of present climate. But there are also major discrepancies indicated by a difference in biomes in Australia, in the Kalahari Desert, and in the Middle West of North America. These discrepancies can be traced back to failures in simulated rainfall as well as summer or winter temperatures. Global patterns of biomes computed from an ice age simulation reveal that North America, Europe, and Siberia should have been covered largely by tundra and taiga, whereas only small differences are seen for the tropical rain forests. A potential north-east shift of biomes is expected from a simulation with enhanced CO2 concentration according to the IPCC Scenario A. Little change is seen in the tropical rain forest and the Sahara. Since the biome model used is not capable of predicting changes in vegetation patterns due to a rapid climate change, the latter simulation has to be taken as a prediction of changes in conditions favourable for the existence of certain biomes, not as a prediction of a future distribution of biomes.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 12 (1996), S. 371-379 
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The use of one-way coupling of an equilibrium-response vegetation, or biome, model with atmospheric circulation models is critically assessed. Global biome patterns from various, equally likely numerical realisations of present-day climate are compared. It has been found that the changes in global biome patterns to be expected from interdecadal variability in the atmosphere affect 9–12% of the continental surface (Antarctica excluded). There is no unique difference pattern, although changes are mainly induced by the variability of annual moisture availability and, to a lesser extent, by winter temperatures. This variability of biome patterns reflects the uncertainty in the estimate of equilibrium vegetation patterns from finite time interval climatologies. Changes in biome distributions between present-day climate and anomaly climate, the latter induced by an increase in sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric CO2, are larger than and different in kind from the changes due to interdecadal variability. Roughly 30% of the land surface is affected by these changes. It appears that the strongest and most significant signal is seen for boreal biomes which can be attributed to an increase in near surface temperatures.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 12 (1996), S. 371-379 
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract. The use of one-way coupling of an equilibrium-response vegetation, or biome, model with atmospheric circulation models is critically assessed. Global biome patterns from various, equally likely numerical realisations of present-day climate are compared. It has been found that the changes in global biome patterns to be expected from interdecadal variability in the atmosphere affect 9–12% of the continental surface (Antarctica excluded). There is no unique difference pattern, although changes are mainly induced by the variability of annual moisture availability and, to a lesser extent, by winter temperatures. This variability of biome patterns reflects the uncertainty in the estimate of equilibrium vegetation patterns from finite time interval climatologies. Changes in biome distributions between present-day climate and anomaly climate, the latter induced by an increase in sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric CO2, are larger than and different in kind from the changes due to inderdecadal variability. Roughly 30% of the land surface is affected by these changes. It appears that the strongest and most significant signal is seen for boreal biomes which can be attributed to an increase in near surface temperatures.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 9 (1994), S. 235-243 
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The biome model of Prentice et al. (1992a) is used to predict global patterns of potential natural plant formations, or biomes, from climatologies simulated by ECHAM, a model used for climate simulations at the Max-Planck-Institut fur Meteorologie. This study is undertaken in order to show the advantage of this biome model in diagnosing the performance of a climate model and assessing effects of past and future climate changes predicted by a climate model. Good overall agreement is found between global patterns of biomes computed from observed and simulated data of present climate. But there are also major discrepancies indicated by a difference in biomes in Australia, in the Kalahari Desert, and in the Middle West of North America. These discrepancies can be traced back to failures in simulated rainfall as well as summer or winter temperatures. Global patterns of biomes computed from an ice age simulation reveal that North America, Europe, and Siberia should have been covered largely by tundra and taiga, whereas only small differences are seen for the tropical rain forests. A potential northeast shift of biomes is expected from a simulation with enhanced C02 concentration according to the IPCC Scenario A. Little change is seen in the tropical rain forest and the Sahara. Since the biome model used is not capable of predicting changes in vegetation patterns due to a rapid climate change, the latter simulation has to be taken as a prediction of changes in conditions favourable for the existence of certain biomes, not as a prediction of a future distribution of biomes.[/ab]
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 10
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract. Leads and polynyas have a great impact on the energy budget of the polar ocean and atmosphere. Since atmospheric general circulation models are not able to resolve the spatial scales of these inhomogeneities, it is necessary to include the effect of fractional sub-grid scale sea-ice inhomogeneities on climate by a suitable parametrization. In order to do this we have divided each model grid-cell into an ice-covered and an ice-free part. Nevertheless, a numerical model requires effective transports representative for the whole grid-box. A simple procedure would be to use grid averages of the surface parameters for the calculation of the surface fluxes. However, as the surface fluxes are non-linearly dependent on the surface properties, the fluxes over ice and open water should be calculated separately according to the individual surface-layer structure of each surface type. Then these local fluxes should be averaged to obtain representative fluxes. Sensitivity experiments with the Hamburg atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM3 clearly show that a subgrid scale distribution of sea ice is a dominant factor controlling the exchange processes between ocean and atmosphere in the Arctic. The heat and water vapour transports are strongly enhanced leading to a significant warming and moistening of the polar troposphere. This affects the atmospheric circulation in high- and mid-latitudes; e.g. the stationary lows are modified and the transient cyclonic activity over the subpolar oceans is reduced. A pronounced impact of sub-grid scale sea-ice distribution on the model climate can only be obtained when the non-linear behaviour of the surface exchange processes is considered by a proper, physically based, averaging of the surface fluxes. A simple linear averaging of surface parameters is not sufficient.
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