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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-02-11
    Description: In this paper, we present a new version of PLUME-MoM, a 1-D integral volcanic plume model based on the method of moments for the description of the polydispersity in solid particles. The model describes the steady-state dynamics of a plume in a 3-D coordinate system, and a modification of the two-size moment (TSM) method is adopted to describe changes in grain size distribution along the plume, associated with particle loss from plume margins and with particle aggregation. For this reason, the new version is named PLUME-MoM-TSM. For the first time in a plume model, the full Smoluchowski coagulation equation is solved, allowing us to quantify the formation of aggregates during the rise of the plume. In addition, PLUME-MOM-TSM allows us to model the phase change of water, which can be either magmatic, added at the vent as liquid from external sources, or incorporated through ingestion of moist atmospheric air. Finally, the code includes the possibility to simulate the initial spreading of the umbrella cloud intruding from the volcanic column into the atmosphere. A transient shallow-water system of equations models the intrusive gravity current, allowing computation of the upwind spreading. The new model is applied first to the eruption of the Calbuco volcano in southern Chile in April 2015 and then to a sensitivity analysis of the upwind spreading of the umbrella cloud to mass flow rate and meteorological conditions (wind speed and humidity). This analysis provides an analytical relationship between the upwind spreading and some observable characteristic of the volcanic column (height of the neutral buoyancy level and plume bending), which can be used to better link plume models and volcanic-ash transport and dispersion models.
    Description: Italian Department of Civil Protection (grant no. INGV-DPC agreement A 2020), the Italian MIUR (grant no. project Premiale Ash-RESILIENCE), the MIUR (FISR project “Sale Operative Integrate e Reti di Monitoraggio del Futuro”), and the EU (EUROVOLC (grant no. 731070)).
    Description: Published
    Description: 1345–1377
    Description: 5V. Processi eruttivi e post-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: volcanic plume ; numerical model ; 04.08. Volcanology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2023-03-06
    Description: Numerical modelling of tephra fallout is a fast-developing research area in volcanology. Several models are currently available both to forecast the dispersion of volcanic particles in the atmosphere and to calculate the particles deposited at different locations on the ground. Data from these simulations can then be used both to manage volcanic crises (e.g., protect air traffic) or perform long-term hazard assessment studies (e.g., through hazard maps). Given the importance of these tasks, it is important that each model is thoroughly tested in order to assess advantages and limitations, and to provide useful information for quantifying the model uncertainty. In this study we tested the coupled PLUME-MoM/HYSPLIT models by applying them to the Puyehue–Cordon Caulle 2011 sub-Plinian eruption. More specifically, we tested new features recently introduced in these well-established models (ash aggregation, external water addition, and settling velocity models), we implemented a new inversion procedure, and we performed a parametric analysis. Our main results reaffirm the pivotal role played by mass eruption rate on the final deposit and show that some choices for the input parameters of the model can lead to the large overestimation in total deposited mass (which can be reduced with our inversion procedure). The parametric analysis suggests a most likely value of the mass eruption rate in the range 2.0–6.3 × 106 kg/s. More studies with a similar approach would be advisable in order to provide final users with useful indications about the parameters that should be carefully evaluated before being used as input for this kind of model.
    Description: Published
    Description: 784
    Description: 5V. Processi eruttivi e post-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: tephra fallout ; numerical model ; 04.08. Volcanology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2024-01-26
    Description: Lava flows associated with effusive volcanic eruptions require accurate modelling in order to forecast potential paths of destruction. This study presents a new depth-averaged model that overcomes the classical shallow water hypothesis by incorporating several enhancements, allowing for a more precise representation of the flow dynamics and behaviour: (i) a parabolic profile which captures the vertical variations in velocity within the flow; (ii) a non-constant vertical profile for temperature, enabling a more realistic representation of thermal gradients within the flowing lava; (iii) a viscoplastic temperature-dependent viscosity model to account for the non-Newtonian behaviour of lava; (iv) a transport equation for temperature accounting for the thermal heat exchanges with the environment and the soil. The first two modifications allow us to describe, under reasonable assumptions, the vertical structure of the flow, and for this reason, we put our model in the class of 2.5D models. To assess the performance of our modified model, comprehensive benchmark tests are conducted using both laboratory experiments and real-world lava flow data related to the 2014–2015 Pico do Fogo, Cape Verde, effusive eruption. The benchmarking analysis demonstrates that this model accurately reproduces, with short execution times, essential flow features such as flow front advancement and cooling processes.
    Description: Published
    Description: 107935
    Description: OSV2: Complessità dei processi vulcanici: approcci multidisciplinari e multiparametrici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Lava flows ; numerical model ; 04.08. Volcanology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2024-01-26
    Description: We present developments to the physical model and the open-source numerical code IMEX_SfloW2D (de' Michieli Vitturi et al., 2019). These developments consist of a generalization of the depth-averaged (shallow-water) fluid equations to describe a polydisperse fluid–solid mixture, including terms for sedimentation and entrainment, transport equations for solid particles of different sizes, transport equations for different components of the carrier phase, and an equation for temperature/energy. Of relevance for the simulation of volcanic mass flows, vaporization and entrainment of water are implemented in the new model. The model can be easily adapted to simulate a wide range of volcanic mass flows (pyroclastic avalanches, lahars, pyroclastic surges), and here we present its application to transient dilute pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). The numerical algorithm and the code have been improved to allow for simulation of sub- to supercritical regimes and to simplify the setting of initial and boundary conditions. The code is open-source. The results of synthetic numerical benchmarks demonstrate the robustness of the numerical code in simulating transcritical flows interacting with the topography. Moreover, they highlight the importance of simulating transient in comparison to steady-state flows and flows in 2D versus 1D. Finally, we demonstrate the model capabilities to simulate a complex natural case involving the propagation of PDCs over the sea surface and across topographic obstacles, through application to Krakatau volcano, showing the relevance, at a large scale, of non-linear fluid dynamic features, such as hydraulic jumps and von Kármán vortices, to flow conditions such as velocity and runout.
    Description: Ministero dell'Istruzione, dell'Università e della Ricerca (“Fondo finalizzato al rilancio degli investimenti delle amministrazioni centrali dello Stato e allo sviluppo del Paese”, legge 145/2018), Horizon 2020 (EUROVOLC Transnational Access Grant) and the Natural Environment Research Council (grant nos. NE/T002026/1 and NE/S003509/1)
    Description: Published
    Description: 6309–6336
    Description: OSV2: Complessità dei processi vulcanici: approcci multidisciplinari e multiparametrici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: geophysical mass flows ; numerical model ; depth-averaged model ; 04.08. Volcanology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2024-01-26
    Description: The 6-month-long effusive eruption at the Fagradalsfjall volcano in 2021 is the most visited eruption site in Iceland to date (June 2023), and it needed intense lava flow hazard assessment. In this study we document how strategies for lava flow modeling were implemented using the stochastic model MrLavaLoba to evaluate hazards during this effusive event. Overall, the purposes were threefold: (a) pre-eruption simulations to investigate potential lava inundation of critical infrastructure, (b) syn-eruption simulations for short-term (2-week time frame) lava flow hazard assessment and (c) syn-eruption simulations for long-term (months to years) hazard assessments. Additionally, strategies for lava barrier testing were developed, and syn-eruption topographic models were incorporated into simulations in near real time. The model provided promising results that were shared regularly at stakeholder meetings with the monitoring personnel, scientists and civil-protection representatives helping to identify potential short-term and long-term lava hazards. This included evaluation of the timing of barrier overflow and the filling and spilling of lava from one valley to another. During the crisis the MrLavaLoba model was updated to increase functionality such as by considering multiple active vents. Following the eruption, the model was optimized substantially, decreasing the computational time required for the simulations and speeding up the delivery of final products.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3147–3168
    Description: OSV2: Complessità dei processi vulcanici: approcci multidisciplinari e multiparametrici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Lava flows ; numerical model ; 04.08. Volcanology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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