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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 122 (2017): 3505–3518, doi:10.1002/2017JC012727.
    Description: A 3-D variational ocean data assimilation adjoint approach is used to examine the impact of ocean observations on coupled tropical cyclone (TC) model forecast error for three recent hurricanes: Isaac (2012), Hilda (2015), and Matthew (2016). In addition, this methodology is applied to develop an innovative ocean observation targeting tool validated using TC model simulations that assimilate ocean temperature observed by Airborne eXpendable Bathy Thermographs and Air-Launched Autonomous Micro-Observer floats. Comparison between the simulated targeted and real observation data assimilation impacts reveals a positive maximum mean linear correlation of 0.53 at 400–500 m, which implies some skill in the targeting application. Targeted ocean observation regions from these three hurricanes, however, show that the largest positive impacts in reducing the TC model forecast errors are sensitive to the initial prestorm ocean conditions such as the location and magnitude of preexisting ocean eddies, storm-induced ocean cold wake, and model track errors.
    Description: ONR Grant Numbers: N0001416WX01949, N0001416WX01384, N0001416WX01262; NOAA Grant Number: NA13OAR4830233
    Keywords: Tropical cyclone ; Ocean data assimilation ; Ocean sampling ; Air-sea interaction
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125(18), (2020): e2019JD032368, doi:10.1029/2019JD032368.
    Description: Hurricane Irma (2017) underwent rapid intensification (RI) while passing over the Amazon‐Orinoco River plume in the tropical Atlantic. The freshwater discharge from the plume creates a vertical salinity gradient that suppresses turbulent heat flux from the cool, ocean subsurface. The stability within the plume reduces sea surface temperature (SST) cooling and promotes energetic air‐sea fluxes. Hence, it is hypothesized that this ocean feature may have facilitated Irma's RI through favorable upper ocean conditions. This hypothesis is validated using a collection of atmospheric and oceanic observations to quantify how the ocean response influences surface flux and atmospheric boundary layer thermodynamics during Hurricane Irma's RI over the river plume. Novel aircraft‐deployed oceanic profiling floats highlight the detailed evolution of the ocean response during Irma's passage over the river plume. Analyses include quantifying the ocean response and identifying how it influenced atmospheric boundary layer temperature, moisture, and equivalent potential temperature (θE). An atmospheric boundary layer recovery analysis indicates that surface fluxes were sufficient to support the enhanced boundary layer θE (moist entropy) observed, which promotes inner‐core convection and facilitates TC intensification. The implicit influence of salinity stratification on Irma's intensity during RI is assessed using theoretical intensity frameworks. Overall, the findings suggest that the salinity stratification sustained SST during Irma's passage, which promoted energetic air‐sea fluxes that aided in boundary layer recovery and facilitated Irma's intensity during RI. Examination of the air‐sea coupling over this river plume, corresponding atmospheric boundary layer response, and feedback on TC intensity was previously absent in literature.
    Description: This research was performed while the corresponding author held an NRC Research Associateship Award at the U.S. Naval Research Lab, Monterey. Chen is supported by Office of Naval Research (ONR) grant N0001416WX00470. Sanabia is sponsored by ONR grants N0001416WX01384 and N0001416WX01262. Jayne is supported by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) grant NA13OAR4830233.The authors gratefully acknowledge the HRD scientists, NOAA AOC crews, U.S. Air Force crews, and U.S. Navy crews who were involved in the collection of both atmospheric and oceanic data. This research would not be possible without your efforts. We are thankful for helpful discussion and pre‐RI AXBT data provided by Jun Zhang (NOAA/HRD).
    Description: 2020-12-12
    Keywords: Hurricane Irma ; Air-sea interaction ; Atmospheric boundary layer ; River plume ; Tropical cyclone ; Upper ocean response
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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