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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: In a negative-polarity coronal hole, magnetic flux emergence, seen by the Solar Dynamics Observatory's {SDO) Helioseismic Magnetic lmager (HMI), begins at approximately 19:00 UT on March 3, 2016. The emerged magnetic field produced sunspots, which NOAA numbered 12514 two days later. The emerging magnetic field is largely bipolar with the opposite-polarity fluxes spreading apart overall, but there is simultaneously some convergence and cancellation of opposite-polarity flux at the polarity inversion line (PIL) inside the emerging bipole. In the first fifteen hours after emergence onset, three obvious eruptions occur, observed in the coronal EUV images from SDO's Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA). The first two erupt from separate segments of the external PIL between the emerging positve-polarity flux and the extant surrounding negative-polarity flux, with the exploding magnetic field being prepared and triggered by flux cancellation at the external PIL. The emerging bipole shows obvious overall left-handed shear and/or twist in its magnetic field. The focus of th is poster is the third and largest eruption, which comes from inside the emerging bipole and blows it open to produce a CME observed by SOHO/LASCO. That eruption is preceded by flux cancellation at the emerging bipole's interior PIL, cancellation that plausibly builds a sheared and twisted flux rope above the interior PIL and finally triggers the blow-out eruption of the flux rope via photospheric-convectiondriven slow tether-cutting reconnection of the legs of the sheared core field, low above the interior PIL, as proposed by van Ballegooijen & Martens (1989) and Moore & Roumeliotis (1992). The production of this eruption is a (perhaps rare) counterexample to solar eruptions that result from external collisional shearing between opposite polarities from two distinct emerging and/or emerged bipoles (Chintzoglou et al. 2019).
    Keywords: Space Sciences (General)
    Type: MSFC-E-DAA-TN69285 , Solar Physics Division of the American Astronomical Society; Jun 09, 2019 - Jun 13, 2019; St. Louis, MO; United States
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2019-07-19
    Description: We show that the length of strong-gradient, strong-field main neutral line, L(sub SGM), which can be measured from line-of-sight magnetograms such as from SOHO/MDI, is both a measure of active-region nonpotentiality and a useful predictor of an active region's future CME productivity. To demonstrate that L(sub SGM) is a nonpotentiality measure, we show that it is strongly correlated with a direct measure of nonpotentiality. For an appropriate choice of a threshold value, an active region s measured LsGM can be used as a predictor of whether the active region will produce a CME within a few days after the magnetogram. For our set of 36 MSFC vector magnetograms of bipolar active regions, L(sub SGM) is found to have a success rate of 80% for prediction of CME productivity in the 0-2 day window. The development of L(sub SGM) as a method of measuring nonpotentiality for forecasting large, fast CMEs from present space based assets is of value to NASA's Space Exploration Initiative (manned missions to the Moon and Mars)
    Keywords: Space Sciences (General)
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2019-08-17
    Description: We have found that active regions that are likely to be CME productive can be identified from measures of their nonpotentiality from magnetograms. We have developed four different measures from vector magnetograms and another that can be obtained from a line-of-sight magnetogram. We find that all five measures are strongly correlated with CME productivity to a similar degree. Hence, all five are roughly equally good predictors of active-region CME productivity. Since the measures all have similar predictive ability, the measures that are easiest to reliably measure are the best for operational forecasting of CMEs. The two best measures are the length of strong-shear main neutral line L(sub SS) (the length of the main neutral line with the magnetic shear angle greater than 45deg and observed transverse field greater than 150G) and the length of strong-gradient main neutral line L(sub G) (the length of the main neutral line with line-of-sight magnetic field greater than 50G/Mm and potential transverse field greater than 150G). As L(sub G) is measured from line-of-sight magnetograms it opens the larger data base of SOHO/MDI and Kitt Peak line-of-sight magnetograms for CME prediction study. This is especially important for evolutionary studies, with SOHO/MDI having no daylight, cloudy weather, or atmospheric seeing problems.
    Keywords: Space Sciences (General)
    Type: Solar, Heliospheric and Interplanetary Environment (SHINE); Jul 06, 2003 - Jul 11, 2003; Maui, HI; United States
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