ALBERT

Description: The 2008-2009 long-lasting solar minimum activity has been the one of its kind since the dawn of space age, offering exceptional conditions for investigating space weather in the near-Earth environment. First ever detection of Ionospheric Alfven Resonator (IAR) signatures in orbit offers new means for investigating ionospheric electrodynamics, namely MHD (MagnetoHydroDynamics) wave propagation, aeronomy processes, ionospheric dynamics, and Sun-Earth connection mechanisms at a local scale. Local and global plasma density heterogeneities in the ionosphere and magnetosphere allow for formation of waveguides and resonators where magnetosonic and shear Alfven waves propagate. The ionospheric magnetosonic waveguide results from complete magnetosonic wave reflection about the ionospheric F-region peak, where the Alfven index of refraction presents a maximum. MHD waves can also be partially trapped in the vertical direction between the lower boundary of the ionosphere and the magnetosphere, a resonance mechanism known as IAR. In this work we present C/NOFS (Communications/Navigation Outage Forecasting System) Extremely Low Frequency (ELF) electric field measurements related to IAR signatures, discuss the resonance and wave propagation mechanisms in the ionosphere, and address the electromagnetic inverse problem from which electron/ion distributions can be derived. These peculiar IAR electric field measurements provide new, complementary methodologies for inferring ionospheric electron and ion density profiles, and also contribute for the investigation of ionosphere dynamics and space weather monitoring. Specifically, IAR spectral signatures measured by C/NOFS contribute for improving the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model, namely electron density and ion composition.

Description: In order to assess current modeling capability of reproducing storm impacts on total electron content (TEC), we considered quantities such as TEC, TEC changes compared to quiet time values, and the maximum value of the TEC and TEC changes during a storm. We compared the quantities obtained from ionospheric models against ground-based GPS TEC measurements during the 2006 AGU storm event (14-15 December 2006) in the selected eight longitude sectors. We used 15 simulations obtained from eight ionospheric models, including empirical, physics-based, coupled ionosphere-thermosphere, and data assimilation models. To quantitatively evaluate performance of the models in TEC prediction during the storm, we calculated skill scores such as RMS error, Normalized RMS error (NRMSE), ratio of the modeled to observed maximum increase (Yield), and the difference between the modeled peak time and observed peak time. Furthermore, to investigate latitudinal dependence of the performance of the models, the skill scores were calculated for five latitude regions. Our study shows that RMSE of TEC and TEC changes of the model simulations range from about 3 TECU (total electron content unit, 1 TECU = 1016 el m2) (in high latitudes) to about 13 TECU (in low latitudes), which is larger than latitudinal average GPS TEC error of about 2 TECU. Most model simulations predict TEC better than TEC changes in terms of NRMSE and the difference in peak time, while the opposite holds true in terms of Yield. Model performance strongly depends on the quantities considered, the type of metrics used, and the latitude considered.