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  • Seismology  (2)
  • Anatomy, Morphology, Biomechanics, Ecology  (1)
  • 1
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    Multi-events earthquake early warning algorithm using a Bayesian approach (2014)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-12-13
    Description: Current earthquake early warning (EEW) systems lack the ability to appropriately handle multiple concurrent earthquakes, which led to many false alarms during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake sequence in Japan. This paper uses a Bayesian probabilistic approach to handle multiple concurrent events for EEW. We implement the theory using a two-step algorithm. First, an efficient approximate Bayesian model class selection scheme is used to estimate the number of concurrent events. Then, the Rao-Blackwellized Importance Sampling method with a sequential proposal probability density function is used to estimate the earthquake parameters, that is hypocentre location, origin time, magnitude and local seismic intensity. A real data example based on 2 months data (2011 March 9–April 30) around the time of the 2011 M 9 Tohoku earthquake is studied to verify the proposed algorithm. Our algorithm results in over 90 per cent reduction in the number of incorrect warnings compared to the existing EEW system operating in Japan.
    Keywords: Seismology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 2
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    Is ungulate migration culturally transmitted? Evidence of social learning from translocated animals (2018)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    In: Science
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-09-07
    Description: Ungulate migrations are assumed to stem from learning and cultural transmission of information regarding seasonal distribution of forage, but this hypothesis has not been tested empirically. We compared the migratory propensities of bighorn sheep and moose translocated into novel habitats with those of historical populations that had persisted for hundreds of years. Whereas individuals from historical populations were largely migratory, translocated individuals initially were not. After multiple decades, however, translocated populations gained knowledge about surfing green waves of forage (tracking plant phenology) and increased their propensity to migrate. Our findings indicate that learning and cultural transmission are the primary mechanisms by which ungulate migrations evolve. Loss of migration will therefore expunge generations of knowledge about the locations of high-quality forage and likely suppress population abundance.
    Keywords: Anatomy, Morphology, Biomechanics, Ecology
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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  • 3
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    Bayesian inversion for finite fault earthquake source models - II: the 2011 great Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake (2014)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-06-28
    Description: We present a fully Bayesian inversion of kinematic rupture parameters for the 2011 M w 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake. Albeit computationally expensive, this approach to kinematic source modelling has the advantage of producing an ensemble of slip models that are consistent with physical a priori constraints, realistic data uncertainties, and realistic but simplistic uncertainties in the physics of the kinematic forward model, all without being biased by non-physical regularization constraints. Combining 1 Hz kinematic GPS, static GPS offsets, seafloor geodesy and near-field and far-field tsunami data into a massively parallel Monte Carlo simulation, we construct an ensemble of samples of the posterior probability density function describing the evolution of fault rupture. We find that most of the slip is concentrated in a depth range of 10–20 km from the trench, and that slip decreases towards the trench with significant displacements at the toe of wedge occurring in just a small region. Estimates of static stress drop and rupture velocity are ambiguous. Due to the spatial compactness of the fault rupture, the duration of the entire rupture was less than approximately 150 s.
    Keywords: Seismology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
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    PAPER CURRENT
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