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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2016-01-08
    Description: The southeastern European cities of Sofia and Thessaloniki are explored as example site-specific scenarios by geographically zoning their individual localized seismic sources based on the highest probabilities of magnitude exceedance. This is with the aim of determining the major components contributing to each city's seismic hazard. Discrete contributions from the selected input earthquake catalogue are investigated to determine those areas that dominate each city's prevailing seismic hazard with respect to magnitude and source-to-site distance. This work is based on an earthquake catalogue developed and described in a previously published paper by the author and components of a magnitude probability density function. Binned magnitude and distance classes are defined using a joint magnitude–distance distribution. The prevailing seismicity to each city—as defined by a child data set extracted from the parent earthquake catalogue for each city considered—is divided into distinct constrained data bins of small discrete magnitude and source-to-site distance intervals. These are then used to describe seismic hazard in terms of uni-variate modal values; that is, M * and D * which are the modal magnitude and modal source-to-site distance in each city's local historical seismicity. This work highlights that Sofia's dominating seismic hazard—that is, the modal magnitudes possessing the highest probabilities of occurrence—is located in zones confined to two regions at 60–80 km and 170–180 km from this city, for magnitude intervals of 5.75–6.00 M w and 6.00–6.25 M w respectively. Similarly, Thessaloniki appears prone to highest levels of hazard over a wider epicentral distance interval, from 80 to 200 km in the moment magnitude range 6.00–6.25 M w .
    Keywords: Seismology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2014-06-21
    Description: Field and laboratory observations show that seismicity has non-trivial period-dependent response to periodic stress perturbations. In Nepal, seismicity shows significant variations in response to annual monsoon-induced stress variations but not to semidiurnal tidal stresses of the same magnitude. Such period dependence cannot be explained by the Coulomb failure model and spring-slider rate-and-state model (SRM). Here, we study seismicity response to periodic stress perturbations in a 2-D continuum model of a rate-and-state fault (that is, a finite rate-and-state fault). We find that the resulting seismicity indeed exhibits nearly periodic variations. Their amplitude is maximum at a certain period, T a , and decreases with smaller and larger periods to the SRM predictions, remaining much larger than the SRM predictions for a wide range of periods around T a . We attribute the higher sensitivity of finite faults to their finite nucleation zones which vary in space and have a different slip-velocity evolution than that of the SRM. At periods T 〉〉 T a and T 〈〈 T a , the seismicity-rate variations are in phase with the stress-rate and stress variations, respectively, consistent with the SRM, although a gradual phase shift appears as T increases towards T a . Based on the similarities with the SRM and our simulations, we propose a semi-analytical expression for T a . Plausible sets of model parameters make T a equal to 1 yr, potentially explaining Nepal observations and constraining the fault properties. Our finite-fault findings indicate that a , where a is a rate-and-state parameter and is the effective normal stress, can be severely underestimated based on the SRM.
    Keywords: Seismology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
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