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  • Artikel  (2)
  • San Francisco  (1)
  • Seismicity gap  (1)
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  • Artikel  (2)
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  • 1
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 117 (1979), S. 1187-1194 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Schlagwort(e): Earthquake prediction ; Seismicity gap ; Tectonics of Mexico
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Physik
    Notizen: Abstract An attempted use of seismic gap observations to predict a large earthquake in Oaxaca, Mexico is discussed. The observations were initially published in a scientific journal and were subsequently distorted by noncientists, who predicted a major earthquake and tsunami to take place at Pinotepa Nacional, Oaxaca on 23 April 1978. Public reactions and property losess sustained by individuals and communities were comparable to those expected from an actual earthquake. A revision of epicenter locations from the NOAA data file revealed that a number of earthquakes did occur in the alleged gap but had been excluded because their reported focal depth was in excess of 60 km. It is shown that the probability that the number of earthquakes in two consecutive time intervals of a stationary Poisson process differs by an amount which would be reported as a ‘seismic gap’ is of the order of 5% or more for Oaxaca. This means that spurious ‘seismic gaps’ would be observed in one out of 20 data runs. The possibility of detecting a true interval of abnormal quiescence in a random earthquake sequence appears to be fairly remote in this case.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Natural hazards 16 (1997), S. 287-296 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Schlagwort(e): earthquake damage ; San Francisco ; Mexico City ; Kobe
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Some analogies in the distribution of damage in the 1985 Mexico, 1989 Loma Prieta, and 1995 Kobe earthquakes may be attributable to similarities in the history of reclamation of bayshore or lakeshore environments by emplacing artificial fill on soft mud. In all three cases, a transitional environment has generated similar soil types and analogous forms of human settlement. These similarities may translate into hazardous situations because of amplification of seismic waves in wedge-shaped low-velocity layers; nonlinearity of seismic wave propagation in soft water-saturated soils; transitions from solid-like to liquid-like behavior, including liquefaction and the emergence of prograde surface waves; and other unforeseen conditions arising from surface geology. Severe stability problems may arise in tall, top-heavy structures and in structures with horizontal spans of the order of the wavelength of surface waves. Effective strategies of hazard reduction include a recognition of the many unanticipated ways in which earthquake hazard may become an emergent property of complex nature-society systems.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
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