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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2011. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Marine Geology 287 (2011): 14-30, doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2011.07.001.
    Description: A 4500-year record of hurricane-induced storm surges is developed from sediment cores collected from a coastal sinkhole near Apalachee Bay, Florida. Recent deposition of sand layers in the upper sediments of the pond was found to be contemporaneous with significant, historic storm surges at the site modeled using SLOSH and the Best Track, post-1851 A.D. dataset. Using the historic portion of the record for calibration, paleohurricane deposits were identified by sand content and dated using radiocarbon-based age models. Marine-indicative foraminifera, some originating at least 5 km offshore, were present in several modern and ancient storm deposits. The presence and long-term preservation of offshore foraminifera suggest that this site and others like it may yield promising microfossil-based paleohurricane reconstructions in the future. Due to the sub-decadal (~ 7 year) resolution of the record and the site’s high susceptibility to hurricane-generated storm surges, the average, local frequency of recorded events, approximately 3.9 storms per century, is greater than that of previously published paleohurricane records from the region. The high incidence of recorded events permitted a time series of local hurricane frequency during the last five millennia to be constructed. Variability in the frequency of the largest storm layers was found to be greater than what would likely occur by chance alone, with intervals of both anomalously high and low storm frequency identified. However, the rate at which smaller layers were deposited was relatively constant over the last five millennia. This may suggest that significant variability in hurricane frequency has occurred only in the highest magnitude events. The frequency of high magnitude events peaked near 6 storms per century between 2800 and 2300 years ago. High magnitude events were relatively rare with about 0-3 storms per century occurring between 1900 to 1600 years ago and between 400 to 150 years ago. A marked decline in the number of large storm deposits, which began around 600 years ago, has persisted through present with below average frequency over the last 150 years when compared to the preceding five millennia.
    Description: Funding for this research was supported by the National Science Foundation and the Coastal Ocean Institute. the model. The Florida State University Marine Laboratory provided lodging during fieldwork. This research was completed during an American Meteorological Society Graduate Fellowship, National Science Foundation Graduate Fellowship and Coastal Ocean Institute Fellowship. This work was further supported by National Science Foundation award #OCE-0903020.
    Keywords: Paleotempestology ; Paleohurricane ; Hurricane ; Tropical cyclone ; Sinkhole ; Storm surge ; SLOSH ; Gulf of Mexico ; Apalachee Bay ; Holocene
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Paleoceanography 28 (2013): 31–41, doi:10.1002/palo.20012.
    Description: Available overwash records from coastal barrier systems document significant variability in North Atlantic hurricane activity during the late Holocene. The same climate forcings that may have controlled cyclone activity over this interval (e.g., the West African Monsoon, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) show abrupt changes around 6000 yrs B.P., but most coastal sedimentary records do not span this time period. Establishing longer records is essential for understanding mid-Holocene patterns of storminess and their climatic drivers, which will lead to better forecasting of how climate change over the next century may affect tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. Storms are thought to be an important mechanism for transporting coarse sediment from shallow carbonate platforms to the deep-sea, and bank-edge sediments may offer an unexplored archive of long-term hurricane activity. Here, we develop this new approach, reconstructing more than 7000 years of North Atlantic hurricane variability using coarse-grained deposits in sediment cores from the leeward margin of the Great Bahama Bank. High energy event layers within the resulting archive are (1) broadly correlated throughout an offbank transect of multi-cores, (2) closely matched with historic hurricane events, and (3) synchronous with previous intervals of heightened North Atlantic hurricane activity in overwash reconstructions from Puerto Rico and elsewhere in the Bahamas. Lower storm frequency prior to 4400 yrs B.P. in our records suggests that precession and increased NH summer insolation may have greatly limited hurricane potential intensity, outweighing weakened ENSO and a stronger West African Monsoon—factors thought to be favorable for hurricane development.
    Description: This research was supported by awards from the Division of Ocean Sciences and the Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences of the National Science Foundation to William B. Curry and an NSERC Post-Doctoral Fellowship to Peter van Hengstum.
    Description: 2013-09-14
    Keywords: Hurricanes ; Bahamas ; Cyclones ; Carbonate banks
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 119 (2014): 8606–8623, doi:10.1002/2014JD021584.
    Description: Historical tropical cyclone (TC) and storm surge records are often too limited to quantify the risk to local populations. Paleohurricane sediment records uncover long-term TC activity, but interpreting these records can be difficult and can introduce significant uncertainties. Here we compare and combine climatological-hydrodynamic modeling (including a method to account for storm size uncertainty), historical observations, and paleohurricane records to investigate local surge risk, using Apalachee Bay in northwest Florida as an example. The modeling reveals relatively high risk, with 100 year, 500 year, and “worst case” surges estimated to be about 6.3 m, 8.3 m, and 11.3 m, respectively, at Bald Point (a paleorecord site) and about 7.4 m, 9.7 m, and 13.3 m, respectively, at St. Marks (the head of the Bay), supporting the inference from paleorecords that Apalachee Bay has frequently suffered severe inundation for thousands of years. Both the synthetic database and paleorecords contain a much higher frequency of extreme events than the historical record; the mean return period of surges greater than 5 m is about 40 years based on synthetic modeling and paleoreconstruction, whereas it is about 400 years based on historical storm analysis. Apalachee Bay surge risk is determined by storms of broad characteristics, varies spatially over the area, and is affected by coastally trapped Kelvin waves, all of which are important features to consider when accessing the risk and interpreting paleohurricane records. In particular, neglecting size uncertainty may induce great underestimation in surge risk, as the size distribution is positively skewed. While the most extreme surges were generated by the uppermost storm intensities, medium intensity storms (categories 1–3) can produce large to extreme surges, due to their larger inner core sizes. For Apalachee Bay, the storms that induced localized barrier breaching and limited sediment transport (overwash regime; surge between 3 and 5 m) are most likely to be category 2 or 3 storms, and the storms that inundated the entire barrier and deposited significantly more coarse materials (inundation regime; surge 〉 5 m) are most likely to be category 3 or 4 storms.
    Description: This research was funded by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) grant NA11OAR4310101 and National Science Foundation (NSF) grants OCE-0903020 and OCE-1250506.
    Description: 2015-01-21
    Keywords: Hurricane ; Storm surge ; Paleohurricane ; Risk assessment
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Wallace, E. J., Donnelly, J. P., van Hengstum, P. J., Winkler, T. S., McKeon, K., MacDonald, D., d'Entremont, N. E., Sullivan, R. M., Woodruff, J. D., Hawkes, A. D., & Maio, C. 1,050 years of hurricane strikes on long island in the Bahamas. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 36(3), (2021): e2020PA004156, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA004156.
    Description: Sedimentary records of past hurricane activity indicate centennial-scale periods over the past millennium with elevated hurricane activity. The search for the underlying mechanism behind these active hurricane periods is confounded by regional variations in their timing. Here, we present a new high resolution paleohurricane record from The Bahamas with a synthesis of published North Atlantic records over the past millennium. We reconstruct hurricane strikes over the past 1,050 years in sediment cores from a blue hole on Long Island in The Bahamas. Coarse-grained deposits in these cores date to the close passage of seven hurricanes over the historical interval. We find that the intensity and angle of approach of these historical storms plays an important role in inducing storm surge near the site. Our new record indicates four active hurricane periods on Long Island that conflict with published records on neighboring islands (Andros and Abaco Island). We demonstrate these three islands do not sample the same storms despite their proximity, and we compile these reconstructions together to create the first regional compilation of annually resolved paleohurricane records in The Bahamas. Integrating our Bahamian compilation with compiled records from the U.S. coastline indicates basin-wide increased storminess during the Medieval Warm Period. Afterward, the hurricane patterns in our Bahamian compilation match those reconstructed along the U.S. East Coast but not in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This disconnect may result from shifts in local environmental conditions in the North Atlantic or shifts in hurricane populations from straight-moving to recurving storms over the past millennium.
    Description: This work was funded by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship (to E. J. W.), the Dalio Explore Foundation, and National Science Foundation grant OCE-1356708 (to J. P. D. and P. J. vH.).
    Keywords: Bahamas ; Blue holes ; Carbonates ; Paleohurricanes ; Sediment cores
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in E. J., Donnelly, J. P., van Hengstum, P. J., Wiman, C., Sullivan, R. M., Winkler, T. S., d'Entremont, N. E., Toomey, M., & Albury, N. Intense hurricane activity over the past 1500 years at South Andros Island, the Bahamas. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 34(11), (2019): 1761-1783, doi:10.1029/2019PA003665.
    Description: Hurricanes cause substantial loss of life and resources in coastal areas. Unfortunately, historical hurricane records are too short and incomplete to capture hurricane‐climate interactions on multi‐decadal and longer timescales. Coarse‐grained, hurricane‐induced deposits preserved in blue holes in the Caribbean can provide records of past hurricane activity extending back thousands of years. Here we present a high resolution record of intense hurricane events over the past 1500 years from a blue hole on South Andros Island on the Great Bahama Bank. This record is corroborated by shorter reconstructions from cores collected at two nearby blue holes. The record contains coarse‐grained event deposits attributable to known historical hurricane strikes within age uncertainties. Over the past 1500 years, South Andros shows evidence of four active periods of hurricane activity. None of these active intervals occurred in the past 163 years. We suggest that Intertropical Convergence Zone position modulates hurricane activity on the island based on a correlation with Cariaco Basin titanium concentrations. An anomalous gap in activity on South Andros Island in the early 13th century corresponds to a period of increased volcanism. The patterns of hurricane activity reconstructed from South Andros Island closely match those from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico but are anti‐phased with records from New England. We suggest that either changes in local environmental conditions (e.g., SSTs) or a northeastward shift in storm tracks can account for the increased activity in the western North Atlantic when the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern Caribbean are less active.
    Description: This work was funded by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship (to E.J.W.), National Science Foundation grant OCE‐1356708 (to J.P.D. and P.J.vH.), the Dalio Explore Foundation and the USGS Land Change Science Program (M.R.T.). We are grateful to members of WHOI Coastal Systems Group, in particular Stephanie Madsen, for their help in the processing core samples. We thank two anonymous reviewers, Matthew Lachniet, Marci Robinson (USGS) and Miriam Jones (USGS) for their helpful feedback on earlier versions of this manuscript. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. The data are available on the National Climatic Data Center (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/dataaccess/paleoclimatology‐data) and WHOI Coastal Systems Group (https://web.whoi.edu/coastal‐group/) websites.
    Keywords: Paleohurricanes ; Carbonate tidal flats ; Blue holes ; Andros ; Bahamas
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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