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  • 1
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    Modeling Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet distribution during MIS 5 and MIS 7 glacial inceptions (2015)
    Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-12-14
    Description: We gratefully acknowledge the support of Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research and Ministry for Environment, Land and Sea through the project GEMINA. Many thanks go to Peter Kohler for providing data and to Narelle van der Wel for her help with English in this paper.
    Description: The present manuscript compares Marine Iso- tope Stage 5 (MIS 5, 125–115 kyr BP) and MIS 7 (236– 229 kyr BP) with the aim to investigate the origin of the difference in ice-sheet growth over the Northern Hemi- sphere high latitudes between these last two inceptions. Our approach combines a low resolution coupled atmosphere– ocean–sea-ice general circulation model and a 3-D thermo- mechanical ice-sheet model to simulate the state of the ice sheets associated with the inception climate states of MIS 5 and MIS 7. Our results show that external forcing (orbitals and GHG) and sea-ice albedo feedbacks are the main fac- tors responsible for the difference in the land-ice initial state between MIS 5 and MIS 7 and that our cold climate model bias impacts more during a cold inception, such as MIS 7, than during a warm inception, such as MIS 5. In addition, if proper ice-elevation and albedo feedbacks are not taken into consideration, the evolution towards glacial inception is hardly simulated, especially for MIS 7. Finally, results high- light that while simulated ice volumes for MIS 5 glacial in- ception almost fit with paleo-reconstructions, the lack of pre- cipitation over high latitudes, identified as a bias of our cli- mate model, does not allow for a proper simulation of MIS 7 glacial inception.
    Description: Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research and Ministry for Environment, Land and Sea through the project GEMINA.
    Description: Published
    Description: 269–291
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Arctic Oscillation ; Teleconnections ; Greenhouse gases ; Glaciation ; Paleoclimate ; Ice Sheet ; 02. Cryosphere::02.03. Ice cores::02.03.05. Paleoclimate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    Climate variability, volcanic forcing, and last millennium hydroclimate extremes (2018)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 31 (2018): 4309-4327, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0407.1.
    Description: Multidecadal hydroclimate variability has been expressed as “megadroughts” (dry periods more severe and prolonged than observed over the twentieth century) and corresponding “megapluvial” wet periods in many regions around the world. The risk of such events is strongly affected by modes of coupled atmosphere–ocean variability and by external impacts on climate. Accurately assessing the mechanisms for these interactions is difficult, since it requires large ensembles of millennial simulations as well as long proxy time series. Here, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Last Millennium Ensemble is used to examine statistical associations among megaevents, coupled climate modes, and forcing from major volcanic eruptions. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly affects hydroclimate extremes: larger ENSO amplitude reduces megadrought risk and persistence in the southwestern United States, the Sahel, monsoon Asia, and Australia, with corresponding increases in Mexico and the Amazon. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) also alters megadrought risk, primarily in the Caribbean and the Amazon. Volcanic influences are felt primarily through enhancing AMO amplitude, as well as alterations in the structure of both ENSO and AMO teleconnections, which lead to differing manifestations of megadrought. These results indicate that characterizing hydroclimate variability requires an improved understanding of both volcanic climate impacts and variations in ENSO/AMO teleconnections.
    Description: This work is supported by NSF EaSM Grants AGS-1243125 and NCAR-1243107 to The University of Arizona.
    Description: 2018-11-03
    Keywords: Drought ; Climate variability ; ENSO ; Paleoclimate ; Climate models ; Multidecadal variability
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 3
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    Paleoclimate constraints on the spatiotemporal character of past and future droughts (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 33(22), (2020): 9883-9903, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0004.1.
    Description: Machine-learning-based methods that identify drought in three-dimensional space–time are applied to climate model simulations and tree-ring-based reconstructions of hydroclimate over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics for the past 1000 years, as well as twenty-first-century projections. Analyzing reconstructed and simulated drought in this context provides a paleoclimate constraint on the spatiotemporal characteristics of simulated droughts. Climate models project that there will be large increases in the persistence and severity of droughts over the coming century, but with little change in their spatial extent. Nevertheless, climate models exhibit biases in the spatiotemporal characteristics of persistent and severe droughts over parts of the Northern Hemisphere. We use the paleoclimate record and results from a linear inverse modeling-based framework to conclude that climate models underestimate the range of potential future hydroclimate states. Complicating this picture, however, are divergent changes in the characteristics of persistent and severe droughts when quantified using different hydroclimate metrics. Collectively our results imply that these divergent responses and the aforementioned biases must be better understood if we are to increase confidence in future hydroclimate projections. Importantly, the novel framework presented herein can be applied to other climate features to robustly describe their spatiotemporal characteristics and provide constraints on future changes to those characteristics.
    Description: This material is based upon work supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement 1852977. JAF was also supported by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER) via National Science Foundation IA 1844590. JS was supported in part by the U.S. National Science Foundation through Grants AGS-1602920 and AGS-1805490, and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration by Grant NA20OAR4310425. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portal. We thank the editor and two reviewers for comments that greatly improved the quality of this manuscript. This is SOEST Publication No. 11116 and LDEO Publication No. 8450.
    Description: 2021-04-15
    Keywords: Drought ; Climate change ; Paleoclimate ; Climate models ; Climate variability ; Other artificial intelligence/machine learning
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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