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  • Pacific decadal oscillation  (2)
  • American Meteorological Society  (2)
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 24 (2011): 2648–2665, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3435.1.
    Description: North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water (NPSTMW) is an essential feature of the North Pacific subtropical gyre imparting significant influence on regional SST evolution on seasonal and longer time scales and, as such, is an important component of basin-scale North Pacific climate variability. This study examines the seasonal-to-interannual variability of NPSTMW, the physical processes responsible for this variability, and the connections between NPSTMW and basin-scale climate signals using an eddy-permitting 1979–2006 ocean simulation made available by the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II (ECCO2). The monthly mean seasonal cycle of NPSTMW in the simulation exhibits three distinct phases: (i) formation during November–March, (ii) isolation during March–June, and (iii) dissipation during June–November—each corresponding to significant changes in upper-ocean structure. An interannual signal is also evident in NPSTMW volume and other characteristic properties with volume minima occurring in 1979, 1988, and 1999. This volume variability is correlated with the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) with zero time lag. Further analyses demonstrate the connection of NPSTMW to the basin-scale ocean circulation. With this, modulations of upper-ocean structure driven by the varying strength and position of the westerlies as well as the regional air–sea heat flux pattern are seen to contribute to the variability of NPSTMW volume on interannual time scales.
    Description: Support for this research was provided by the Partnership for Advancing Interdisciplinary Modeling (PARADIGM), a National Ocean Partnership Program and by a NASA Modeling, Analysis, and the Prediction (MAP) project called Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II (ECCO2).
    Keywords: Seasonal variability ; Interannual variability ; North Pacific Ocean ; Subtropics ; Climate variability ; Pacific decadal oscillation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2023-02-23
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 32(5) (2019): 1551-1571. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0444.1.
    Description: Previous studies have documented a poleward shift in the subsiding branches of Earth’s Hadley circulation since 1979 but have disagreed on the causes of these observed changes and the ability of global climate models to capture them. This synthesis paper reexamines a number of contradictory claims in the past literature and finds that the tropical expansion indicated by modern reanalyses is within the bounds of models’ historical simulations for the period 1979–2005. Earlier conclusions that models were underestimating the observed trends relied on defining the Hadley circulation using the mass streamfunction from older reanalyses. The recent observed tropical expansion has similar magnitudes in the annual mean in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH), but models suggest that the factors driving the expansion differ between the hemispheres. In the SH, increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) and stratospheric ozone depletion contributed to tropical expansion over the late twentieth century, and if GHGs continue increasing, the SH tropical edge is projected to shift further poleward over the twenty-first century, even as stratospheric ozone concentrations recover. In the NH, the contribution of GHGs to tropical expansion is much smaller and will remain difficult to detect in a background of large natural variability, even by the end of the twenty-first century. To explain similar recent tropical expansion rates in the two hemispheres, natural variability must be taken into account. Recent coupled atmosphere–ocean variability, including the Pacific decadal oscillation, has contributed to tropical expansion. However, in models forced with observed sea surface temperatures, tropical expansion rates still vary widely because of internal atmospheric variability.
    Description: We thank Ori Adam, Nick Davis, Isaac Held, Tim Merlis, Lorenzo Polvani, and one anonymous reviewer for helpful comments and suggestions. We thank U.S. CLIVAR and the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) for funding working groups that stimulated this project. We thank all members of the working groups for helpful discussions, and the U.S. CLIVAR and ISSI offices and their sponsoring agencies (NASA,NOAA,NSF,DOE, ESA, Swiss Confederation, Swiss Academy of Sciences, and University of Bern) for supporting these groups and activities.We acknowledge WCRP’sWorking Group on CoupledModelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (Table 2) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the U.S. DOE PCMDI provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals.
    Description: 2019-08-06
    Keywords: Hadley circulation ; Climate models ; Reanalysis data ; Multidecadal variability ; Pacific decadal oscillation ; Trends
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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