ALBERT

Description: The intraseasonal variation (ISV) in the 30-60 day band, also known as Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), has been studied for decades. Madden and Julian showed that the oscillation originated from the western Indian Ocean, propagated eastward, got enhanced over the maritime continent and weakened after passing over the dateline. Composite studies showed evidences of a signal in upper and lower level zonal wind propagating around the globe during an oscillation. Theoretical studies pointed out that the interaction with the warm ocean surface and the coupling with the convective and radiative processes in the atmosphere could manifest the oscillation, which propagates eastward via mutual feedbacks between the wave motions and the cumulus heating. Over tropical South America, no independent 30-60 day oscillation has been reported so far, despite that Amazon is the most distinct tropical convection center over the western hemisphere and the fluxes from its surface of tropical rainforests are close to that from the warm tropical ocean. Liebmann et al. showed a distinct spectral peak of 40-50 day oscillation in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over tropical South America and considered that was manifested by the MJO propagation. Nogues-Paegle et al. (2000) focused on a dipole pattern of the OLR anomaly with centers of action over the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) and the subtropical plain. They used the regional 10-90 day filtered data and demonstrated this pattern could be represented by the fifth mode of the rotated empirical orthogonal function. Its principal component was further analyzed using the singular spectrum analysis. Their result showed two oscillatory modes with periods of 36-40 days and 22-28 days, of which the former was related to the MJO influence and the latter linked to the remote forcing over southwest of Australia, which produced a wave train propagating southeastward, rounding the southern tip of South America and returning back toward the northeast. The 22-28 day mode has distinct impact on SACZ, responsible for the regional seesaw pattern of alternating dry and wet conditions. In this study we will focus on the 30-60-day spectral band and investigate whether the independent oscillation source over tropical South America is existed. First, we will show the seasonal dependence of the tropical South American ISV in Section 3. Then, the leading principal modes of 30-60 day bandpass filtered 850-hPa velocity potential (VP850) will be computed to distinguish the stationary ISV over tropical South America (SISA) from the propagating MJO in the austral summertime in Section 4. The importance of SISA in representing the regional ISV over South America will be discussed. In Section 5, we will demonstrate the mass oscillation regime of SISA, which is well separated from that of MJO by the Andes, and the convective coupling with rainfall. The dynamical response of SISA and the impact on the South American summer monsoon (SASM) will be presented. Finally, we will give the concluding remarks.

Description: The simulations of climatology and response of the South American summer monsoon (SASM) to the 1997/98 El Nino are investigated using six atmospheric general circulation models. Results show all models simulate the large-scale features of the SASM reasonably well. However, both stationary and seasonal components of the surface pressure are overestimated, resulting in an excessively strong SASM in the model climatology. The low-level northwesterly jet over eastern foothills of the Andes is not well resolved because of the coarse resolution of the models. Large rainfall simulation biases are found in association with the Andes and the Atlantic ITCZ, indicating model problems in handling steep mountains and parameterization of convective processes. The simulation of the 1997/98 El Nino impact on SASM is examined based on an ensemble of ten two-year (September 1996 - August 1998) integration. Results show that most models can simulate the large-scale tropospheric warming response over the tropical central Pacific, including the dynamic response of Rossby wave propagation of the Pacific-South America (PSA) pattern that influences remote areas. Deficiencies are found in simulating the regional impacts over South America. Model simulation fails to capture the southeastward expansion of anomalously warm tropospheric air. As a result, the upper tropospheric anomalous high over the subtropical Andes is less pronounced, and the enhancement of subtropical westerly jet is displaced 5deg-10deg equatorward compared to the observed. Over the Amazon basin, the shift of Walker cell induced by El Nino is not well represented, showing anomalous easterlies in both upper and lower troposphere.

Description: It is well known that during El Nino years severe drought occurs in the area of Amazon and northeastern Brazil. According to the linear model result the reduced latent heating over the Amazon may lead to a weaker than normal upper tropospheric Bolivian high. As a result, some studies have suggested a weaker South American summer monsoon (SASM) during El Nino years. Using re-analysis. Zhou and Lau data found a statistically significant positive correlation between the tropical eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and the strength of low-level jet (LLJ) along the eastern foothills of the tropical-subtropical Andes. Douglas also showed a strong LLJ at Santa Cruz, Bolivia during a special pilot balloon observation period in 1997/98 El Nino austral summer. Since this LLJ is an integral part of the monsoon system in the summertime, these results indicated that SASM could be stronger than normal in El Nino years. To clarify this issue, we conducted an investigation on SASM anomaly in the recent ENSO event of 1997/98 El Nino and 1998/99 La Nina In the following we first give a brief review on SASM and the interannual variability of summer rainfall over South America. Then, the impact of 1997-99 ENSO on the South American regional thermal structure and its dynamical consequences to SASM will be discussed.

Description: Using the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Merged Analysis of Precipitation product along with the Goddard Earth Observing System reanalysis and the Climate Analysis Center sea surface temperature (SST) data, we conduct a diagnostic study of the interannual and decadal scale variability of summer rainfall over South America. Results show three leading modes of rainfall variation identified with interannual, decadal, and long-term trend variability. Together, these modes explain more than half the total variance. The first mode is highly correlated with El Nino/southern oscillation (ENSO), showing severe drought over Northeast Brazil and copious rainfall over the Ecuador coast and the area of Uruguay-Southern Brazil in El Nino years. This pattern is attributed to the large scale zonal shift of the Walker circulation and local Hadley cell anomaly induced by positive (negative) SST anomaly over the eastern (western) equatorial Pacific. In El Nino years, two convective belts indicated by upper tropospheric velocity potential trough and mid-tropospheric rising motion, which are somewhat symmetric about the equator, extend toward the northeast and the southeast into the tropical North and South Atlantic respectively. Sandwiched between the ascent is a region of descending motion over Northeast Brazil. The southern branch of the anomalous Hadley cell is dynamically linked to the increase of rainfall over Uruguay-Southern Brazil. The regional response of anomalous circulation shows a stronger South American summer monsoon and an enhanced (weakened) subtropical high over the South Atlantic (South Pacific) Ocean. The decadal variation displays a meridional shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is tie to the anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient over the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. In conjunction with this mode is a large scale mass swing between the polar regions and midlatitudes in both hemispheres. Over the South Atlantic and the South Pacific, the changes of the strength of the subtropical high and the associated surface wind are dynamically consistent with the distribution of local SST anomalies, suggesting the importance of the atmospheric forcing in the decadal time scale. The decadal mode also presents a weak summer monsoon in its positive phase, which reduces the moisture supply from the equatorial Atlantic and the Amazon Basin and results in negative rainfall anomalies over the central Andes and Gran Chaco. The long-term trend shows decrease of rainfall from the northwest coast to the southeast subtropical region and a southward shift of Atlantic ITCZ that leads to increased rainfall over northern and eastern Brazil. Our result shows a close link of this mode to the observed SST warming trend over the subtropical South Atlantic and a remote connection to the interdecadal SST variation over the extratropical North Atlantic found in previous studies.