ALBERT

Description: The fixed-lag Kalman smoother (FLKS) has been proposed as a framework to construct data assimilation procedures capable of producing high-quality climate research datasets. Fixed-lag Kalman smoother-based systems, referred to as retrospective data assimilation systems, are an extension to three-dimensional filtering procedures with the added capability of incorporating observations not only in the past and present time of the estimate, but also at future times. A variety of simplifications are necessary to render retrospective assimilation procedures practical. In this article, we present an FLKS-based retrospective data assimilation system implementation for the Goddard Earth Observing System (GOES) Data Assimilation System (DAS). The practicality of this implementation comes from the practicality of its underlying (filter) analysis system, i.e., the physical-space statistical analysis system (PSAS). The behavior of two schemes is studied here. The first retrospective analysis (RA) scheme is designed simply to update the regular PSAS analyses with observations available at times ahead of the regular analysis times. Although our GEOS DAS implementation is general, results are only presented for when observations 6-hours ahead of the analysis time are used to update the PSAS analyses and thereby to calculate the so-called lag-1 retrospective analyses. Consistency tests for this RA scheme show that the lag-1 retrospective analyses indeed have better 6-hour predictive skills than the predictions from the regular analyses. This motivates the introduction of the second retrospective analysis scheme which, at each analysis time, uses the 6-hour retrospective analysis to replace the first-guess normally used in the PSAS analysis, and therefore allows the calculation of a revised (filter) PSAS analysis. Since in this scheme the lag-1 retrospective analyses influence the filter results, this procedure is referred to as the retrospective-based iterative analysis (RIA) scheme. Results from the RIA scheme indicate its potential for improving the overall quality of the assimilation.

Description: We describe the application of the unbiased sequential analysis algorithm developed by Dee and da Silva (1998) to the GEOS DAS moisture analysis. The algorithm estimates the persistent component of model error using rawinsonde observations and adjusts the first-guess moisture field accordingly. Results of two seasonal data assimilation cycles show that moisture analysis bias is almost completely eliminated in all observed regions. The improved analyses cause a sizable reduction in the 6h-forecast bias and a marginal improvement in the error standard deviations.

Description: Atmospheric data assimilation is the name scientists give to the techniques of blending atmospheric observations with atmospheric model results to obtain an accurate idea of what the atmosphere looks like at any given time. Because two pieces of information are used, observations and model results, the outcomes of data assimilation procedure should be better than what one would get by using one of these two pieces of information alone. There is a number of different mathematical techniques that fall under the data assimilation jargon. In theory most these techniques accomplish about the same thing. In practice, however, slight differences in the approaches amount to faster algorithms in some cases, more economical algorithms in other cases, and even give better overall results in yet some other cases because of practical uncertainties not accounted for by theory. Therefore, the key is to find the most adequate data assimilation procedure for the problem in hand. In our Data Assimilation group we have been doing extensive research to try and find just such data assimilation procedure. One promising possibility is what we call retrospective iterated analysis (RIA) scheme. This procedure has recently been implemented and studied in the context of a very large data assimilation system built to help predict and study weather and climate. Although the results from that study suggest that the RIA scheme produces quite reasonable results, a complete evaluation of the scheme is very difficult due to the complexity of that problem. The present work steps back a little bit and studies the behavior of the RIA scheme in the context of a small problem. The problem is small enough to allow full assessment of the quality of the RIA scheme, but it still has some of the complexity found in nature, namely, its chaotic-type behavior. We find that the RIA performs very well for this small but still complex problem which is a result that seconds the results of our early studies.

Description: This presentation discusses an approach to estimate model error using observation residuals. Based on the sequential fixed-lag smoother; we introduce a diagnostic procedure to allow estimating model error over a dense observing system. Optimality considerations are examined in light of the sequential results. The procedure is re-interpreted in the language of variational assimilation, such as 4d-Var. Illustrations of the approach are given by studying both identical-twin and fraternal-twin experimental settings for a system governed by Lorenz-type dynamics. Preliminary results by looking at observation residual statistics for the ECMWF data assimilation system are also shown. The presentation will be part of a series of discussions on issues related to four-dimensional data assimilation under weak-constraint and methodologies to estimate model error.

Description: The Global Modeling and Assimilation Offce (GMAO) is currently using an IAU-based 3D-Var data assimilation system. GMAO has been experimenting with a 3D-Var-hybrid version of its data assimilation system (DAS) for over a year now, which will soon become operational and it will rapidly progress toward a 4D-EnVar. Concurrently, the machinery to exercise traditional 4DVar is in place and it is desirable to have a comparison of the traditional 4D approach with the other available options, and evaluate their performance in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) DAS. This work will also explore the possibility for constructing a reduced order model (ROM) to make traditional 4D-Var computationally attractive for increasing model resolutions. Part of the research on ROM will be to search for a suitably acceptable space to carry on the corresponding reduction. This poster illustrates how the IAU-based 4D-Var assimilation compares with our currently used IAU-based 3D-Var.

Description: A recent attempt to downscale the 50 km MERRA-2 analyses to 7 km revealed an instability associated with the Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) procedure that has thus far gone unnoticed. A theoretical study based on a simple damped harmonic oscillator with complex frequency provides the framework to diagnose the problem and suggests a means to avoid it. Three possible approaches to avoid the instability are to: (i) choose an ``ideal'' ratio of the lengths of the Predictor and Corrector steps of IAU based on a theoretical stability diagram; (ii) time average the background fields used to construct the IAU tendencies with given frequency; or (iii) apply a digital filter modulation to the IAU tendencies. All these are shown to control the instability for a wide range of resolutions when doing up- or down-scaling, experiments with the NASA/GMAO atmospheric general circulation model. Furthermore, it is found that combining IAU with the ensemble re-centering step typical of hybrid ensemble-variational approaches, also results in an instability based on the same mechanisms in the members of the ensemble. An example of such occurrence arises in an experiment performed with the GMAO 12.8 km hybrid 4D-EnVar system. Modulation of the ensemble IAU tendencies with a digital filter is shown to avoid the instability. In addition, the stability of the central member of certain 4DIAU implementations is analyzed and a suggestion is made to improve its results, though a complete study of this subject is postponed to a follow up work.

Description: This document describes the implementation and usage of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Hybrid Ensemble-Variational Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (Hybrid EVADAS). Its aim is to provide comprehensive guidance to users of GEOS ADAS interested in experimenting with its hybrid functionalities. The document is also aimed at providing a short summary of the state-of-science in this release of the hybrid system. As explained here, the ensemble data assimilation system (EnADAS) mechanism added to GEOS ADAS to enable hybrid data assimilation applications has been introduced to the pre-existing machinery of GEOS in the most non-intrusive possible way. Only very minor changes have been made to the original scripts controlling GEOS ADAS with the objective of facilitating its usage by both researchers and the GMAO's near-real-time Forward Processing applications. In a hybrid scenario two data assimilation systems run concurrently in a two-way feedback mode such that: the ensemble provides background ensemble perturbations required by the ADAS deterministic (typically high resolution) hybrid analysis; and the deterministic ADAS provides analysis information for recentering of the EnADAS analyses and information necessary to ensure that observation bias correction procedures are consistent between both the deterministic ADAS and the EnADAS. The nonintrusive approach to introducing hybrid capability to GEOS ADAS means, in particular, that previously existing features continue to be available. Thus, not only is this upgraded version of GEOS ADAS capable of supporting new applications such as Hybrid 3D-Var, 3D-EnVar, 4D-EnVar and Hybrid 4D-EnVar, it remains possible to use GEOS ADAS in its traditional 3D-Var mode which has been used in both MERRA and MERRA-2. Furthermore, as described in this document, GEOS ADAS also supports a configuration for exercising a purely ensemble-based assimilation strategy which can be fully decoupled from its variational component. We should point out that Release 1.0 of this document was made available to GMAO in mid-2013, when we introduced Hybrid 3D-Var capability to GEOS ADAS. This initial version of the documentation included a considerably different state-of-science introductory section but many of the same detailed description of the mechanisms of GEOS EnADAS. We are glad to report that a few of the desirable Future Works listed in Release 1.0 have now been added to the present version of GEOS EnADAS. These include the ability to exercise an Ensemble Prediction System that uses the ensemble analyses of GEOS EnADAS and (a very early, but functional version of) a tool to support Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity and Observation Impact applications.

Description: An experiment is being conducted to compare directly the impact of all assimilated observations on short-range forecast errors in different operational forecast systems. We use the adjoint-based method developed by Langland and Baker (2004), which allows these impacts to be efficiently calculated. This presentation describes preliminary results for a "baseline" set of observations, including both satellite radiances and conventional observations, used by the Navy/NOGAPS and NASA/GEOS-5 forecast systems for the month of January 2007. In each system, about 65% of the total reduction in 24-h forecast error is provided by satellite observations, although the impact of rawinsonde, aircraft, land, and ship-based observations remains significant. Only a small majority (50- 55%) of all observations assimilated improves the forecast, while the rest degrade it. It is found that most of the total forecast error reduction comes from observations with moderate-size innovations providing small to moderate impacts, not from outliers with very large positive or negative innovations. In a global context, the relative impacts of the major observation types are fairly similar in each system, although regional differences in observation impact can be significant. Of particular interest is the fact that while satellite radiances have a large positive impact overall, they degrade the forecast in certain locations common to both systems, especially over land and ice surfaces. Ongoing comparisons of this type, with results expected from other operational centers, should lead to more robust conclusions about the impacts of the various components of the observing system as well as about the strengths and weaknesses of the methodologies used to assimilate them.