ALBERT

Description: This study represents one of the first published attempts to identify rainfall modification by urban areas using satellite-based rainfall measurements. Data from the first space-based rain-radar, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) Precipitation Radar, are employed. Analysis of the data enables identification of rainfall patterns around Atlanta, Montgomery, Nashville, San Antonio, Waco, and Dallas during the warm season. Results reveal an average increase of -28% in monthly rainfall rates within 30-60 kilometers downwind of the metropolis with a modest increase of 5.6% over the metropolis. Portions of the downwind area exhibit increases as high as 51%. The percentage chances are relative to an upwind CONTROL area. It was also found that maximum rainfall rates in the downwind impact area can exceed the mean value in the upwind CONTROL area by 48%-116%. The maximum value was generally found at an average distance of 39 km from the edge of the urban center or 64 km from the center of the city. These results are consistent with METROMEX studies of St. Louis almost two decades ago and more recent studies near Atlanta. Future work will investi(yate hypothesized factors causing rainfall modification by urban areas. Additional work is also needed to provide more robust validation of space-based rain estimates near major urban areas. Such research has implications for urban planning, water resource management, and understanding human impact on the environment.

Description: Central Florida is the ideal test laboratory for studying convergence zone-induced convection. The region regularly experiences sea breeze fronts and rainfall-induced outflow boundaries. The focus of this study is the common yet poorly-studied convergence zone established by the interaction of the sea breeze front and an outflow boundary. Previous studies have investigated mechanisms primarily affecting storm initiation by such convergence zones. Few have focused on rainfall morphology yet these storms contribute a significant amount precipitation to the annual rainfall budget. Low-level convergence and mid-tropospheric moisture have both been shown to correlate with rainfall amounts in Florida. Using 2D and 3D numerical simulations, the roles of low-level convergence and mid-tropospheric moisture in rainfall evolution are examined. The results indicate that time-averaged, vertical moisture flux (VMF) at the sea breeze front/outflow convergence zone is directly and linearly proportional to initial condensation rates. This proportionality establishes a similar relationship between VMF and initial rainfall. Vertical moisture flux, which encompasses depth and magnitude of convergence, is better correlated to initial rainfall production than surface moisture convergence. This extends early observational studies which linked rainfall in Florida to surface moisture convergence. The amount and distribution of mid-tropospheric moisture determines how rainfall associated with secondary cells develop. Rainfall amount and efficiency varied significantly over an observable range of relative humidities in the 850- 500 mb layer even though rainfall evolution was similar during the initial or "first-cell" period. Rainfall variability was attributed to drier mid-tropospheric environments inhibiting secondary cell development through entrainment effects. Observationally, 850-500 mb moisture structure exhibits wider variability than lower level moisture, which is virtually always present in Florida. A likely consequence of the variability in 850-500 moisture is a stronger statistical correlation to rainfall, which observational studies have noted. The study indicates that vertical moisture flux forcing at convergence zones is critical in determining rainfall in the initial stage of development but plays a decreasing role in rainfall evolution as the system matures. The mid-tropospheric moisture (e.g. environment) plays an increasing role in rainfall evolution as the system matures. This suggests the need to improve measurements of magnitude/depth of convergence and mid-tropospheric moisture distribution. It also highlights the need for better parameterization of entrainment and vertical moisture distribution in larger-scale models.

Description: Urban heat islands (UHIs) are caused by the heat-retaining properties of surfaces usually found in urban cities like asphalt and concrete. The UHI can typically be observed on the evening TV weather map as warmer temperatures over the downtown of major cities and cooler temperatures in the suburbs and surrounding rural areas. The UHI has now become a widely acknowledged, observed, and researched phenomenon because of its broad environmental and societal implications. Interest in the UHI will intensify in the future as existing urban areas expand and rural areas urbanize. By the year 2025, more than 60% of the world's population will live in cities, with higher percentages expected in developed nations. The urban growth rate in the United States, for example, is estimated to be 12.5%, and the recent 2000 Census found that more than 80% of the population currently lives in urban areas. Furthermore, the U.S. population is not only growing but is tending to concentrate more in urban areas within the environmentally sensitive coastal zones. Urban growth creates unique and often contentious issues for policymakers related to land use zoning, transportation planning, agricultural production, housing and development, pollution, and natural resources protection. Urban expansion and its associated UHIs also have measurable impacts on weather and climate processes. The UHI has been documented to affect local and regional temperature, wind patterns, and air quality.

Description: The water cycle is the key circuit moving water through the Earth's system. This large system, powered by energy from the sun, is a continuous exchange of moisture between the oceans, the atmosphere, and the land. Precipitation (including rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain, and hail), is the primary mechanism for transporting water from the atmosphere back to the Earth's surface and is the key physical process that links aspects of climate, weather, and the global water cycle. Global precipitation and associate cloud processes are critical for understanding the water cycle balance on a global scale and interactions with the Earth's climate system. However, unlike measurement of less dynamic and more homogenous meteorological fields such as pressure or even temperature, accurate assessment of global precipitation is particularly challenging due to its highly stochastic and rapidly changing nature. It is not uncommon to observe a broad spectrum of precipitation rates and distributions over very localized time scales. Furthermore, precipitating systems generally exhibit nonhomogeneous spatial distributions of rain rates over local to global domains.

Description: Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world s population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world s population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters atmospheric composition; impacts components of the water cycle; and modifies the carbon cycle and ecosystems. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-climate system is incomplete. Better understanding of how the Earth s atmosphere-ocean-land-biosphere components interact as a coupled system and the influence of the urban environment on this climate system is critical. The goal of the 2003 AGU Union session Human-induced climate variations on urban areas: From observations to modeling was to bring together scientists from interdisciplinary backgrounds to discuss the data, scientific approaches and recent results on observing and modeling components of the urban environment with the intent of sampling our current stand and discussing future direction on this topic. Herein, a summary and discussion of the observations component of the session are presented.

Description: Howard (1833a) made the first documented observation of a temperature difference between an urban area and its rural environment. Manley (1958) termed this contrast the "urban heat island (UHI)". The UHI has now become a widely acknowledged, observed, and researched phenomenon because of its broad implications. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world's population will live in cities (UNFP, 1999). In the United States, the current urban growth rate is approximately 12.5%, with 80% currently living in urban areas. As cities continue to grow, urban sprawl creates unique problems related to land use, transportation, agriculture, housing, pollution, and development for policymakers. Urban expansion and its associated urban heat islands also have measurable impacts on weather and climate processes.

Description: The study employs a 108-year precipitation data record to identify statistically significant anomalies in rainfall downwind of the Phoenix urban region. The analysis reveals that during the monsoon season locations northeastern suburbs and exurbs of the Phoenix metropolitan area have experienced statistically significant increases in mean precipitation of 12 to 14 percent from a pre-urban (1895-1949) to post-urban (1950-2003) period. Mean and median post-urban precipitation totals in the anomaly region are significantly greater, in the statistical sense, than regions west of the city and in nearby mountainous regions of similar or greater topography. Further analysis of satellite-based rainfall totals for the summer of 2003 also reveal the existence of the anomaly region during a severe drought period. The anomaly can not simply be attributed to maximum topographic relief and is hypothesize to be related to urban-topographic interactions.

Description: This chapter begins with a brief history and background of microwave precipitation sensors, with a discussion of the sensitivity of both passive and active instruments, to trace the evolution of satellite-based rainfall techniques from an era of inference to an era of physical measurement. Next, the highly successful Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission will be described, followed by the goals and plans for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission and the status of precipitation retrieval algorithm development. The chapter concludes with a summary of the need for space-based precipitation measurement, current technological capabilities, near-term algorithm advancements and anticipated new sciences and societal benefits in the GPM era.

Description: By 2025, 60 to 80 percent of the world s population will live in urban environments. Additionally, the following facts published by the United Nations further illustrates how cities will evolve in the future. Urban areas in the developing world are growing very rapidly. The urban growth rate will continue to be particularly rapid in the urban areas of less developed regions, averaging 2.4 per cent per year during 2000-2030, consistent with a doubling time of 29 years. The urbanization process will continue worldwide. The concentration of population in cities is expected to continue so that, by 2030, 84 percent of the inhabitants of more developed countries will be urban dwellers. Urbanization impacts the whole hierarchy of human settlements. In 2000,24.8 per cent of the world population lived in urban settlements with fewer than 500,000 inhabitants and by 2015 that proportion will likely rise to 27.1 per cent.

Description: Water is essential to life in the Earth system. The water cycle components that sustain life are becoming more scarce and polluted. The most recent (1999-2004) drought experienced in the southwestern United States is the seventh worst in the approximately 500-year proxy tree-ring record. As a result, many regions contemplated drought emergencies in which severe water restrictions are implemented. Though larger weather and climate processes likely control drought processes, there is increasing evidence that anthropogenic or human-related activities can significantly alter precipitation processes. Urbanization is an example of anthropogenic forcing. Recent studies continue to provide evidence that urban environments can modify or induce precipitation under a specific set of conditions. Arid and semi-arid regions of the southwestern United States and other parts of the world are rapidly developing and placing greater demands on the environmental system. In the past fifty years, Phoenix has expanded from a predominantly agricultural center to an urbanized region with extent 700 percent larger than its size in the middle of the twentieth century. Riyadh's population grew from about a half million people in 1972 to almost two million by 2000. Saudi Arabia experienced urbanization later than many other countries; in the early 1970s its urban-rural ratio was still about 1:3. By 1990 the ratio had reversed to about 3:l. In the mid-1970s Riyadh's population was increasing by about 10 percent a year. Irrigation also significantly increased between 1972 and 1990 southeast of Riyadh. The study employs a 108-year precipitation historical data record, global climate observing network observations and satellite data to identify possible anomalies in rainfall in and around two major arid urban areas, Phoenix, Arizona and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. It provides statistically sound evidence that rainfall distribution and magnitude is statistically different in post-urban than in pre-urban (1900-1950) Phoenix. The study hypothesis that a complex interaction between the city landscape, irrigated lands, and nearby mountains have created preferred regions for rainfall development. The study also provides early evidence that rapidly urbanizing parts of the arid Middle East may also be experiencing different precipitation regimes in response to urbanization and irrigation.