ALBERT

Description: On 19 February 2001, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observed complex alongfront variability in the precipitation structure of an intense cold-frontal rainband. The TRMM Microwave Imager brightness temperatures suggested that, compared to the northern and southern ends of the rainband, a greater amount of precipitation ice was concentrated in the middle portion of the rainband where the front bowed out. A model simulation conducted using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is examined to explain the distribution of precipitation associated with the cold-frontal rainband. The simulation reveals that the enhanced precipitation ice production and the implied mean ascent along the central part of the front were associated with a synergistic interaction between a low-level front and an upper-level front associated with an intrusion of high-PV stratospheric air. The low-level front contributed to an intense bow-shaped narrow cold-frontal rainband (NCFR). The upper-level front was dynamically active only along the central to northern portion of the NCFR, where the upper-level PV advection and Q-vector convergence were most prominent. The enhanced mean ascent associated with the upper-level front contributed to a wide cold-frontal rainband (WCFR) that trailed or overlapped with the NCFR along its central to northern segments. Because of the combination of the forcing from both lower- and upper-level fronts, the ascent was deepest and most intense along the central portion of the front. Thus, a large concentration of precipitation ice, attributed to both the NCFR and WCFR, was produced.

Description: This work is an extension of a previous ring current decay model. In the previous work, a two-dimensional kinetic model was constructed to study the temporal variations of the equatorially mirroring ring current ions, considering charge exchange and Coulomb drag losses along drift paths in a magnetic dipole field. In this work, particles with arbitrary pitch angle are considered. By bounce averaging the kinetic equation of the phase space density, information along magnetic field lines can be inferred from the equator. The three-dimensional model is used to simulate the recovery phase of a model great magnetic storm, similar to that which occurred in early February 1986. The initial distribution of ring current ions (at the minimum Dst) is extrapolated to all local times from AMPTE/CCE spacecraft observations on the dawnside and duskside of the inner magnetosphere spanning the L value range L = 2.25 to 6.75. Observations by AMPTE/CCE of ring current distributions over subsequent orbits during the storm recovery phase are compared to model outputs. In general, the calculated ion fluxes are consistent with observations, except for H(+) fluxes at tens of keV, which are always overestimated. A newly invented visualization idea, designated as a chromogram, is used to display the spatial and energy dependence of the ring current ion differential flux. Important features of storm time ring current, such as day-night asymmetry during injection and drift hole on the dayside at low energies (less than 10 keV), are manifested in the chromogram representation. The pitch angle distribution is well fit by the function, J(sub o)(1 + Ay(sup n)), where y is sine of the equatorial pitch angle. The evolution of the index n is a combined effect of charge exchange loss and particle drift. At low energies (less than 30 keV), both drift dispersion and charge exchange are important in determining n.

Description: We report results from the global circulation model of Lyon, Fedder, and Mobarry with an embedded model of the inner magnetosphere including the plasmasphere. The combination is used to initiate large numbers of representative protons on the geosynchronous orbit L shell, to assign particle weightings, to track their: subsequent trajectories in the 3D fields. This permits us to study the global circulation of plasmaspheric plumes and to compare these with Polar observations from the dayside magnetopause region . A range of events is studied from an isolated period of SBz in the solar wind,to a large storm sequence. We consider effects on circulating plasma reaching the dayside reconnection X-line, the population of the plasma sheet with ionospheric protons and the generation of ring current pressure from this source, compared with solar wind, polar wind, and auroral wind sources. We find that the transient plasmaspheric plume source is large in terms of total fluence, but of modest proportions in terms of contribution to the ring current. Implications of this and other results for improved space weather modeling and prediction will be discussed.

Description: The GEM 2008 modeling challenge efforts are expanding beyond comparing in-situ measurements in the magnetosphere and ionosphere to include the computation of indices to be compared. The Dst index measures the largest deviations of the horizontal magnetic field at 4 equatorial magnetometers from the quiet-time background field and is commonly used to track the strength of the magnetic disturbance of the magnetosphere during storms. Models can calculate a proxy Dst index in various ways, including using the Dessler-Parker Sckopke relation and the energy of the ring current and Biot-Savart integration of electric currents in the magnetosphere. The GEM modeling challenge investigates 4 space weather events and we compare models available at CCMC against each other and the observed values of Ost. Models used include SWMF/BATSRUS, OpenGGCM, LFM, GUMICS (3D magnetosphere MHD models), Fok-RC, CRCM, RAM-SCB (kinetic drift models of the ring current), WINDMI (magnetosphere-ionosphere electric circuit model), and predictions based on an impulse response function (IRF) model and analytic coupling functions with inputs of solar wind data. In addition to the analysis of model-observation comparisons we look at the way Dst is computed in global magnetosphere models. The default value of Dst computed by the SWMF model is for Bz the Earth's center. In addition to this, we present results obtained at different locations on the Earth's surface. We choose equatorial locations at local noon, dusk (18:00 hours), midnight and dawn (6:00 hours). The different virtual observatory locations reveal the variation around the earth-centered Dst value resulting from the distribution of electric currents in the magnetosphere during different phases of a storm.

Description: TWINS is the first mission to perform stereo imaging of the Earth's ring current. The magnetic storm on 22 July 2009 is the largest storm observed since TWINS began routine stereo imaging in June 2008. On 22 July 2009, the Dst dropped to nearly -80nT at 7:00 and 10:00 UT. During the main phase and at the peak of the storm, TWINS 1 and 2 were near apogee and moving from pre-dawn to post-dawn local time. The energetic neutral atom (ENA) imagers on the 2 spacecraft captured the storm intensification and the formation of the partial ring current. The peak of the ENA emissions was seen in the midnight-to-dawn local-time sector. The development of this storm has been simulated using the Comprehensive Ring Current Model (CRCM) to understand and interpret the observed signatures. We perform CRCM runs with constant and time-varying magnetic field. The model calculations are validated by comparing the simulated ENA and ion flux intensities with TWINS ENA images and in-situ ion data from THEMIS satellites. Simulation with static magnetic field produces a strong shielding electric field that skews the ion drift trajectories toward dawn. The model's corresponding peak ENA emissions are always eastward than those in the observed TWINS images. On the other hand, simulation with a dynamic magnetic field gives better spatial agreements with both ENA and insitu particle data, suggesting that temporal variations of the geomagnetic field exert a significant influence upon global ring current ion dynamics.

Description: The Hebrew University Cloud Model (HUCM) bin scheme and the Thompson bulk scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are compared to assess biases often found in simulated brightness temperature and radar reflectivity. Compared to our preceding study that evaluated several bulk schemes in the WRF model, the current study obtains a reduction of the bias from excessive microwave scattering by precipitation ice for both HUCM bin and the Thompson bulk microphysics schemes for a topographic winter precipitation event associated with an atmospheric river. The Thompson particle size distributions (PSDs) and snow particle density assumption are implemented into the Goddard Satellite Data Simulator Unit (GSDSU) and have produced improvements. Despite the greater sophistication of the bin scheme in representing cloud and precipitation processes, the simulation with the Thompson bulk scheme is generally in better agreement with observations for this winter event. The explicitly resolved hydrometeor PSDs in HUCM enable analysis of mass spectra variations in response to changes in microphysics assumptions. Two HUCM sensitivity runs tested the enhancement of snow particle breakup and the influence of ice nuclei (IN) concentration. Higher IN concentration resulted in increased snow mass and broadened the spectrum toward smallsize particles. Modified snow mass spectra and resultant changes in graupel contributed to modifications in scattering and reflectivity simulations. The article demonstrates the bin scheme's capability to provide a new means to improve our understanding of uncertainties in mesoscale weather models and radiative transfer models.

Description: During the past decade, both research and operational numerical weather prediction models, e.g. Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, have started using more complex microphysical schemes originally developed for high-resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) with a 1-2 km or less horizontal resolutions. WRF is a next-generation mesoscale forecast model and assimilation system that has incorporated modern software framework, advanced dynamics, numeric and data assimilation techniques, a multiple moveable nesting capability, and improved physical packages. WRF model can be used for a wide range of applications, from idealized research to operational forecasting, with an emphasis on horizontal grid sizes in the range of 1-10 km. The current WRF includes several different microphysics options such as Purdue Lin et al. (1983), WSM 6-class and Thompson microphysics schemes. We have recently implemented three sophisticated cloud microphysics schemes into WRF. The cloud microphysics schemes have been extensively tested and applied for different mesoscale systems in different geographical locations. The performances of these schemes have been compared to those from other WRF microphysics options. We are performing sensitivity tests in using WRF to examine the impact of six different cloud microphysical schemes on precipitation processes associated hurricanes and mesoscale convective systems developed at different geographic locations [Oklahoma (IHOP), Louisiana (Hurricane Katrina), Canada (C3VP - snow events), Washington (fire storm), India (Monsoon), Taiwan (TiMREX - terrain)]. We will determine the microphysical schemes for good simulated convective systems in these geographic locations. We are also performing the inline tracer calculation to comprehend the physical processes (i.e., boundary layer and each quadrant in the boundary layer) related to the development and structure of hurricanes and mesoscale convective systems.

Description: The development of the ring current ions in the inner magnetosphere during the main phase of a magnetic storm is studied. The temporal and spatial evolution of the ion phase space densities in a dipole field are calculated using a three dimensional ring current model, considering charge exchange and Coulomb losses along drift paths. The simulation starts with a quiet time distribution. The model is tested by comparing calculated ion fluxes with Active Magnetospheric Particle Tracer Explorers/CCE measurement during the storm main phase on May 2, 1986. Most of the calculated omnidirectional fluxes are in good agreement with the data except on the dayside inner edge (L less than 2.5) of the ring current, where the ion fluxes are underestimated. The model also reproduces the measured pitch angle distributions of ions with energies below 10 keV. At higher energy, an additional diffusion in pitch angle is necessary in order to fit the data. The role of the induced electric field on the ring current dynamics is also examined by simulating a series of substorm activities represented by stretching and collapsing the magnetic field lines. In response to the impulsively changing fields, the calculated ion energy content fluctuates about a mean value that grows steadily with the enhanced quiescent field.

Description: The importance of space weather has been recognized world-wide. Our society depends increasingly on technological infrastructure, including the power grid as well as satellites used for communication and navigation. Such technologies, however, are vulnerable to space weather effects caused by the Sun's variability. NASA GSFC's Space Weather Center (SWC) (http://science.gsfc.nasa.gov//674/swx services/swx services.html) has developed space weather products/capabilities/services that not only respond to NASA's needs but also address broader interests by leveraging the latest scientific research results and state-of-the-art models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC: http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov). By combining forefront space weather science and models, employing an innovative and configurable dissemination system (iSWA.gsfc.nasa.gov), taking advantage of scientific expertise both in-house and from the broader community as well as fostering and actively participating in multilateral collaborations both nationally and internationally, NASA/GSFC space weather Center, as a sibling organization to CCMC, is poised to address NASA's space weather needs (and needs of various partners) and to help enhancing space weather forecasting capabilities collaboratively. With a large number of state-of-the-art physics-based models running in real-time covering the whole space weather domain, it offers predictive capabilities and a comprehensive view of space weather events throughout the solar system. In this paper, we will provide some highlights of our service products/capabilities. In particular, we will take the 23 January and the 27 January space weather events as examples to illustrate how we can use the iSWA system to track them in the interplanetary space and forecast their impacts.

Description: In recent years, the heavy rainfall that was associated with severe weather events (e.g., typhoons, local heavy precipitation events) has caused significant damages in the economy and loss of human life throughout Taiwan. Especially, the extreme heavy rainfall (over 2500 mm over 24 hours) associated with Typhoon Morakot 2009 caused more than 600 human beings lost and more than $100 million US dollar damage. In this paper, we are using WRF to simulate the precipitation processes associated Typhoon Morakot 2009. The preliminary results indicated that the wrf model with using 2 km grid size and with utilizing the 310E scheme (cloud ice, snow and hail) can simulate more than 2500 mm rainfall over 24 hour integration. In this talk, we will evaluate the performance of the microphysical schemes for the Typhoon Morakot case. In addition, we will examine the impact of model resolution (in both horizontal and vertical) on the Typhoon Morakot case.