ALBERT

Description: It is well known that most tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall along the Gulf coast of the United States spawn at least a few tornadoes. Although most landfalling TCs generate fewer than a dozen such tornadoes, a small proportion produce large swarm outbreaks, with as many as 25 or more tornadoes. Usually, these major outbreaks occur in large, intense hurricane-strength TCs, but on 15-17 August 1994 Tropical Storm Beryl spun off 37 tornadoes along its path from the Florida panhandle through the mid-Atlantic states. Some 32 of these tornadoes occurred on 16 August 1994 from eastern Georgia to southern Virginia, with most of these taking place in South Carolina. Beryl's 37 tornadoes moved it into what was at that time fifth place historically in terms of TC tornado productivity. The Beryl outbreak is especially noteworthy in that at least three of the tornadoes achieved peak intensity of F3 on the Fujita damage intensity scale. Although no fatalities resulted from the Beryl outbreak, at least 50 persons suffered injuries, and property damages totalled more than $50 million . The Beryl outbreak is a good example of a TC whose greatest danger to the public is its post-landfall severe weather. In this respect, and in the character of its swarm outbreak of tornadoes, it resembles another large tornado outbreak spawned by a relatively weak TC, Hurricane Danny of 1985). In the Danny outbreak, numerous shallow mini-supercell storms were found to have occurred, and it was noted that, because of the storms' relatively shallow depth, cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning was negligible. Better observations of future TC tornado outbreaks, especially with modern surveillance tools such as Doppler radars and the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), were recommended. Although the Beryl tornado outbreak is not the first set of TC-spawned tornado storms to be observed with the NLDN, it is one of the largest and likely the most intense such outbreak. The purpose of this paper is to document the NLDN-derived CG lightning characteristics of Beryl's tornadic storms, and to see how they compare with observations of CG lightning activity in other types of severe storms. In particular, we attempt to quantify the CG flash rates of TC tornadic cells, and to discover if there are any characteristics of their CG activity that may be useful to operational forecasters seeking to distinguish which cells are most likely to produce severe weather.

Description: The sensitivities of convective storm structure and intensity to changes in the altitudes of the prestorm environmental lifted condensation level and level of free convection axe studied using a full-physics three-dimensional cloud model. Matrices of simulations are conducted for a range of LCL=LFC altitudes, using a single moderately-sheared curved hodograph trace in conjunction with 1 convective available potential energy values of either 800 or 2000 J/kg, with the matrices consisting of all four combinations of two distinct choices of buoyancy and shear profile shape. For each value of CAPE, the LCL=LFC altitudes are also allowed to vary in a series of simulations based on the most highly compressed buoyancy and shear profiles for that CAPE, with the environmental buoyancy profile shape, subcloud equivalent potential temperature, subcloud lapse rates of temperature and moisture, and wind profile held fixed. For each CAPE, one final simulation is conducted using a near optimal LFC, but a lowered LCL, with a neutrally buoyant environmental thermal profile specified in between. Results show that, for the buoyancy-starved small-CAPE environments, the simulated storms are supercells and are generally largest and most intense when LCL=LFC altitudes lie in the approximate range 1.5-2.5 km above the surface. The simulations show similar trends for the shear-starved large-CAPE environments, except that conversion from supercell to multicell morphology frequently occurs when the LCL is high. For choices of LCL=LFC height within the optimal 1.5-2.5 km range, peak storm updraft overturning efficiency may approaches unity relative to parcel theory, while for lower LCL=LFC heights, overturning efficiency is reduced significantly. The enhancements of overturning efficiency and updraft diameter with increasing LFC height are shown to be the result of systematic increases in the mean equivalent potential temperature of the updraft at cloud base. For the shear-starved environments, the tendency for outflow dominance is eliminated, but a large overturning efficiency maintained, when a low LCL is used in conjunction with a high LFC. The result regarding outflow dominance at high LCL is consistent with expectations, but the beneficial effect of a high LFC on convective overturning efficiency has not previously been widely recognized. The simulation findings here also appear to be consistent with statistics from previous severe storm environment climatologies, but provide a new framework for interpreting those statistics.

Description: Data from a single Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) and the National Lightning Detection Network are used to examine the characteristics of the convective storms that produced a severe tornado outbreak, including three tornadoes that reached F3 intensity, within Tropical Storm Beryl s remnants on 16 August 1994. Comparison of the radar data with reports of tornadoes suggests that only 13 cells produced the 29 tornadoes that were documented in Georgia and the Carolinas on that date. Six of these cells spawned multiple tornadoes, and the radar data confirm the presence of miniature supercells. One of the cells was identifiable on radar for 11 h. spawning tornadoes over a time period spanning approximately 6.5 h. Several other tornadic cells also exhibited great longevity, with cell lifetimes longer than ever previously documented in a landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) tornado event. This event is easily the most intense TC tornado outbreak yet documented with WSR-88Ds. Time-height analyses of the three strongest tornadic supercells are presented in order to document storm kinematic structure and to show how these storms appear at different ranges from a WSR-88D. In addition, cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data are examined in Beryl s remnants. Although the tornadic cells were responsible for most of Beryl's CG lightning, their flash rates were only weak to moderate, and in all the tornadic storms the lightning flashes were almost entirely negative in polarity. A few of the single-tornado storms produced no detectable CG lightning at all. There is evidence that CG lightning rates decreased during the tornadoes, compared to 30-min periods before the tornadoes. A number of the storms spawned tornadoes just after producing their final CG lightning flashes. Contrary to the findings for flash rates, both peak currents and positive flash percentages were larger in Beryl's nontornadic storms than in the tornadic ones.

Description: Prior parameter space studies of simulated deep convection are extended to embrace variations in the ambient temperature at the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL). Within the context of the parameter space study design, changes in LCL temperature are roughly equivalent to changes in the ambient precipitable water. Two series of simulations are conducted, one with a warm LCL that is associated with approximately 60 mm of precipitable water, and another with LCL temperatures 8 C cooler, so that PW is reduced to roughly 30 mm. The sets of simulations include tests of the impact of changes in the buoyancy and shear profile shapes and of changes in mixed and moist layer depths, all of which have been shown to be important in prior work. Simulations discussed here feature values of bulk convective available potential energy (CAPE) of 800, 2000, or 3200 Joules per kilogram, and a single semicircular hodograph having radius of 12 meters per second, but with variable vertical shear. The simulations reveal a consistent trend toward stronger peak updraft speeds for the cooler LCL temperature (reduced PW) cases, if all other environmental parameters are held constant. Roughly comparable increases in updraft speeds are noted for all combinations of LCL and level of free convection heights. These increases in updraft strength are evidently the result of both the reduction of condensate loading aloft and the lower altitudes at which the latent heat release by freezing and deposition commences in the cooler, low-PW environments. Because the latent heat of fusion adds relatively more energy to the updrafts at low CAPE, those storms show more strengthening at low PW than do the larger CAPE storms. As expected, maximum storm precipitation rates tend to diminish as PW is decreased, but only slightly, and by amounts not proportionate to the decrease in PW. The low-PW cases thus actually feature larger environment-relative precipitation efficiency than do the high-PW cases. In addition, more hail reaches the surface in the low-PW cases because of reduced melting in the cooler environments.

Description: Data from a single WSR-88D Doppler radar and the National Lightning Detection Network are used to examine in detail the characteristics of the convective storms that produced a severe tornado outbreak within Tropical Storm Beryl's remnants on 16 August 1994. Comparison of the radar data with reports of tornadoes suggests that only 13 cells produced the 29 tornadoes that were documented in Georgia and the Carolinas on that date. Six of these cells spawned multiple tornadoes, and the radar data confirm the presence of miniature supercells. One of the cells was identifiable on radar for 11 hours, spawning tornadoes over a time period spanning approximately 6.5 hours. Several other tornadic cells also exhibited great longevity, with cell lifetimes greater than ever previously documented in a landfalling tropical cyclone tornado event, and comparable to those found in major midlatitude tornadic supercell outbreaks. Time-height analyses of the three strongest tornadic supercells are presented in order to document storm kinematic structure and to show how these storms appear at different ranges from a WSR-88D radar. In addition, cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data are examined for the outbreak, the most intense tropical cyclone tornado event studied thus far. Although the tornadic cells were responsible for most of Beryl's CG lightning, flash rates were only weak to moderate, even in the most intense supercells, and in all the tornadic storms the lightning flashes were almost entirely negative in polarity. A few of the single-tornado storms produced no detectable CG lightning at all. In the stronger cells, there is some evidence that CG lightning rates decreased during tornadogenesis, as has been documented before in some midlatitude tornadic storms. A number of the storms spawned tornadoes just after producing their final CG lightning flashes. Surprisingly, both peak currents and positive flash percentages were larger in Beryl s nontornadic storms than in the tornadic ones. Despite some intriguing patterns, the CG lightning behavior in this outbreak remains mostly inconsistent and ambiguous, and offers only secondary value for warning guidance. The present findings argue in favor of the implementation of observing systems capable of continuous monitoring of total lightning activity in storms.

Description: The visual, radar, and lightning characteristics of a severe thunderstorm that spawned a large F3 tornado near Almena, Kansas, on 3 June 1999 are documented. The storm is interesting in that it transitioned from a low-precipitation to classic supercell, then back to low-precipitation supercell again prior to dissipation after sunset. Remarkably, the storm produced only 17 cloud-to-ground lightning flashes during its 4.5 h lifetime, despite VIL values reaching 95 kg/sq m, reflectivities of 50 dBZ or greater at altitudes of 14 km, and baseball-size hail at the surface. In contrast, total lightning rates inferred from a portable lightning detector during the large tornado were very high, approximately 100/min as expected for a storm of this size and intensity.

Description: Data from a single WSR-88D Doppler radar and the National Lightning Detection Network are used to examine the characteristics of the convective storms that produced a severe tornado outbreak within Tropical Storm Beryl's remnants on 16 August 1994. Comparison of the radar data with reports of tornadoes suggests that only 12 cells produced the 29 tornadoes that were documented in Georgia and the Carolinas on that date. Six of these cells spawned multiple tornadoes, and the radar data confirm the presence of miniature supercells. One of the cells was identifiable on radar for 11 hours, spawning tornadoes over a time period spanning approximately 6.5 hours. Time-height analyses of the three strongest supercells are presented in order to document storm kinematic structure and evolution. These Beryl mini-supercells were comparable in radar-observed intensity but much more persistent than other tropical cyclone-spawned tornadic cells documented thus far with Doppler radars. Cloud-to-ground lightning data are also examined for all the tornadic cells in this severe swarm-type tornado outbreak. These data show many of the characteristics of previously reported heavy-precipitation supercells. Lightning rates were weak to moderate, even in the more intense supercells, and in all the storms the lightning flashes were almost entirely negative in polarity. No lightning at all was detected in some of the single-tornado storms. In the stronger cells, there is some evidence that lightning rates can decrease during tornadogenesis, as has been documented before in some midlatitude tornadic storms. A number of the storms spawned tornadoes just after producing their final cloud-to-ground lightning flashes. These findings suggest possible benefits from implementation of observing systems capable of monitoring intracloud as well as cloud-to-ground lightning activity.

Description: Convection-allowing numerical weather simula- tions have often been shown to produce convective storms that have significant sensitivity to choices of model physical parameterizations. Among the most important of these sensitivities are those related to cloud microphysics, but planetary boundary layer parameterizations also have a significant impact on the evolution of the convection. Aspects of the simulated convection that display sensitivity to these physics schemes include updraft size and intensity, simulated radar reflectivity, timing and placement of storm initi- ation and decay, total storm rainfall, and other storm features derived from storm structure and hydrometeor fields, such as predicted lightning flash rates. In addition to the basic parameters listed above, the simulated storms may also exhibit sensitivity to im- posed initial conditions, such as the fields of soil temper- ature and moisture, vegetation cover and health, and sea and lake water surface temperatures. Some of these sensitivities may rival those of the basic physics sensi- tivities mentioned earlier. These sensitivities have the potential to disrupt the accuracy of short-term forecast simulations of convective storms, and thereby pose sig- nificant difficulties for weather forecasters. To make a systematic study of the quantitative impacts of each of these sensitivities, a matrix of simulations has been performed using all combinations of eight separate microphysics schemes, three boundary layer schemes, and two sets of initial conditions. The first version of initial conditions consists of the default data from large-scale operational model fields, while the second features specialized higher- resolution soil conditions, vegetation conditions and water surface temperatures derived from datasets created at NASA's Short-term Prediction and Operational Research Tran- sition (SPoRT) Center at the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) in Huntsville, AL. Simulations as outlined above, each 48 in number, were conducted for five midsummer weakly sheared coastal convective events each at two sites, Mobile, AL (MOB) and Houston, TX (HGX). Of special interest to operational forecasters at MOB and HGX were accuracy of timing and placement of convective storm initiation, reflectivity magnitudes and coverage, rainfall and inferred lightning threat.

Description: Inspection of output from various configurations of high-resolution, explicit convection forecast models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model indicates significant sensitivity to the choices of model physics pararneterizations employed. Some of the largest apparent sensitivities are related to the specifications of the cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layer physics packages. In addition, these sensitivities appear to be especially pronounced for the weakly-sheared, multicell modes of deep convection characteristic of the Deep South of the United States during the boreal summer. Possible ocean-land sensitivities also argue for further examination of the impacts of using unique ocean-land surface initialization datasets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRn Center to select NOAAlNWS weather forecast offices. To obtain better quantitative understanding of these sensitivities and also to determine the utility of the ocean-land initialization data, we have executed matrices of regional WRF forecasts for selected convective events near Mobile, AL (MOB), and Houston, TX (HGX). The matrices consist of identically initialized WRF 24-h forecasts using any of eight microphysics choices and any of three planetary boWldary layer choices. The resulting 24 simulations performed for each event within either the MOB or HGX regions are then compared to identify the sensitivities of various convective storm metrics to the physics choices. Particular emphasis is placed on sensitivities of precipitation timing, intensity, and coverage, as well as amount and coverage oflightuing activity diagnosed from storm kinematics and graupel in the mixed phase layer. The results confirm impressions gleaned from study of the behavior of variously configured WRF runs contained in the ensembles produced each spring at the Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms, but with the benefit of more straightforward control of the physics package choices. The design of the experiments thus allows for more direct interpretation of the sensitivities to each possible physics combination. The results should assist forecasters in their efforts to anticipate and correct for possible biases in simulated WRF convection patterns, and help the modeling community refine their model parameterizations.

Description: During the past couple of years, an analysis tool was developed by the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) program. The tool monitors and examines changes in lightning characteristics over the conterminous US (CONUS) on a continual basis. In this study, we have expanded the capability of the tool so that it can compute a new climate assessment variable that is called the Lightning NOx Indicator (LNI). Nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) are known to indirectly influence our climate, and lightning NOx is the most important source of NOx in the upper troposphere (particularly in the tropics). The LNI is derived using Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) data and is computed by summing up the product of flash area x flash brightness over all flashes that occur in a particular region and period. Therefore, it is suggested that the LNI is a proxy to lightning NOx production. Specifically, larger flash areas are consistent with longer channel length and/or more energetic channels, and hence more NOx production. Brighter flashes are consistent with more energetic channels, and hence more NOx production. The location of the flash within the thundercloud and the optical scattering characteristics of the thundercloud are of course complicating factors. We analyze LIS data for the years 2003-2013 and provide geographical plots of the time-evolution of the LNI in order to determine if there are any significant changes or trends between like seasons, or from year to year.