ALBERT

Description: A series of sensitivity studies is carried out to explore the feasibility of space-based global carbon dioxide (CO2) measurements for global and regional carbon cycle studies. The detection method uses absorption of reflected sunlight in the CO2 vibration-rotation band at 1.58 microns. The sensitivities of the detected radiances are calculated using the line-by-line model (LBLRTM), implemented with the DISORT (Discrete Ordinates Radiative Transfer) model to include atmospheric scattering in this band. The results indicate that (a) the small (approx.1%) changes in CO2 near the Earth's surface are detectable in this CO2 band provided adequate sensor signal-to-noise ratio and spectral resolution are achievable; (b) the radiance signal or sensitivity to CO2 change near the surface is not significantly diminished even in the presence of aerosols and/or thin cirrus clouds in the atmosphere; (c) the modification of sunlight path length by scattering of aerosols and cirrus clouds could lead to large systematic errors in the retrieval; therefore, ancillary aerosol/cirrus cloud data are important to reduce retrieval errors; (d) CO2 retrieval requires good knowledge of the atmospheric temperature profile, e.g. approximately 1K RMS error in layer temperature; (e) the atmospheric path length, over which the CO2 absorption occurs, must be known in order to correctly interpret horizontal gradients of CO2 from the total column CO2 measurement; thus an additional sensor for surface pressure measurement needs to be attached for a complete measurement package.

Description: The Antarctic ozone hole demonstrates large-scale, man-made affects on our atmosphere. Surface observations now show that human produced ozone depleting substances (ODSs) are declining. The ozone hole should soon start to diminish because of this decline. Herein we demonstrate an ozone hole parametric model. This model is based upon: 1) a new algorithm for estimating C1 and Br levels over Antarctica and 2) late-spring Antarctic stratospheric temperatures. This parametric model explains 95% of the ozone hole area s variance. We use future ODS levels to predict ozone hole recovery. Full recovery to 1980 levels will occur in approximately 2068. The ozone hole area will very slowly decline over the next 2 decades. Detection of a statistically significant decrease of area will not occur until approximately 2024. We further show that nominal Antarctic stratospheric greenhouse gas forced temperature change should have a small impact on the ozone hole.

Description: The Antarctic ozone hole is a region of extremely large ozone depletion that is roughly centered over the South Pole. Since 1979, the area coverage of the ozone hole has grown from near zero size to over 24 Million square kilometers. In the 8-year period from 1981 to 1989, the area expanded by 18 Million square kilometers. During the last 5 years, the hole has been observed to exceed 25 Million square kilometers over brief periods. We will review these size observations, the size trends, and the interannual variability of the size. The area is derived from the area enclosed by the 220 DU total ozone contour. We will discuss the rationale for the choice of 220 DU: 1) it is located near the steep gradient between southern mid-latitudes and the polar region, and 2) 220 DU is a value that is lower than the pre- 1979 ozone observations over Antarctica during the spring period. The phenomenal growth of the ozone hole was directly caused by the increases of chlorine and bromine compounds in the stratosphere. In this talk, we will show the relationship of the ozone hole's size to the interannual variability of Antarctic spring temperatures. In addition, we will show the relationship of these same temperatures to planetary-scale wave forcings.

Description: Global measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxides (CO2) are needed to resolve significant discrepancies that exist in our understanding of the global carbon budget and, therefore, man's role in global climate change. The science measurement requirements for CO2 are extremely demanding (precision c .3%) No atmospheric chemical species has ever been measured from space with this precision. We are developing a novel application of a Fabry-Perot interferometer to detect spectral absorption of reflected sunlight by CO2 and O2 in the atmosphere. Preliminary design studies indicate that the method will be able to achieve the sensitivity and signal-to-noise required to measure column CO2 at the target specification. We are presently engaged in the construction of a prototype instrument for deployment on an aircraft to test the instrument performance and our ability to retrieve the data in the real atmosphere. In the first 6 months we have assembled a laboratory bench system to begin testing the optical and electronic components. We are also undertaking some measurements of signal and noise levels for actual sunlight reflecting from the ground. We shall present results from some of these ground based studies and discuss their implications for a space based system.

Description: About one-half of the global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and deforestation accumulates in the atmosphere, where it contributes to global warming. The rest is taken up by vegetation and the ocean. The precise contribution of the two sinks, and their location and year-to-year variability are, however, not well understood. We use two different approaches, batch Bayesian synthesis inversion and variational data assimilation, to deduce the global spatiotemporal distributions of CO2 fluxes during 2009-2010. One of our objectives is to assess different sources of uncertainties in inferred fluxes, including uncertainties in prior flux estimates and observations, and differences in inversion techniques. For prior constraints, we utilize fluxes and uncertainties from the CASA-GFED model of the terrestrial biosphere and biomass burning driven by satellite observations and interannually varying meteorology. We also use measurement-based ocean flux estimates and two sets of fixed fossil CO2 emissions. Here, our inversions incorporate column CO2 measurements from the GOSAT satellite (ACOS retrieval, filtered and bias-corrected) and in situ observations (individual flask and afternoon-average continuous observations) to estimate fluxes in 108 regions over 8-day intervals for the batch inversion and at 3 x 3.75 weekly for the variational system. Relationships between fluxes and atmospheric concentrations are derived consistently for the two inversion systems using the PCTM atmospheric transport model driven by meteorology from the MERRA reanalysis. We compare the posterior fluxes and uncertainties derived using different data sets and the two inversion approaches, and evaluate the posterior atmospheric concentrations against independent data including aircraft measurements. The optimized fluxes generally resemble those from other studies. For example, the results indicate that the terrestrial biosphere is a net CO2 sink, and a GOSAT-only inversion suggests a shift in the global sink from the tropics south to the north relative to the prior and to an in-situ-only inversion. We also find a smaller terrestrial sink in higher-latitude northern regions in boreal summer of 2010 relative to 2009.

Description: A series of sensitivity studies is carried out to explore the feasibility of space-based global carbon dioxide (CO2) measurements for global and regional carbon cycle studies. The detection method uses absorption of reflected sunlight in the CO2 vibration-rotation band at 1.58 micron. The sensitivities of the detected radiances are calculated using the line-by-line model (LBLRTM), implemented with the DISORT (Discrete Ordinates Radiative Transfer) model to include atmospheric scattering in this band. The results indicate that (a) the small (approx.1%) changes in CO2 near the Earth's surface are detectable in this CO2 band provided adequate sensor signal-to-noise ratio and spectral resolution are achievable; (b) the effects of other interfering constituents, such as water vapor, aerosols and cirrus clouds, on the radiance are significant but the overall effects of the modification of light path length on total back-to-space radiance sensitivity to CO2 change are minor for general cases, which means that generally the total column CO2 can be derived in high precision from the ratio of the on-line center to off-line radiances; (c) together with CO2 gas absorption aerosol/cirrus cloud layer has differential scattering which may result in the modification of on-line to off-line radiance ratio which could lead a large bias in the total column CO2 retrieval. Approaches to correct such bias need further investigation. (d) CO2 retrieval requires good knowledge of the atmospheric temperature profile, e.g. approximately 1K RMS error in layer temperature, which is achievable from new atmospheric sounders in the near future; (e) the atmospheric path length, over which the CO2 absorption occurs, should be known in order to correctly interpret horizontal gradients of CO2 from the total column CO2 measurement; thus an additional sensor for surface pressure measurement needs to be attached for a complete measurement package.

Description: Several recent observational and laboratory studies of processes involved in polar stratospheric ozone loss have prompted a reexamination of aspects of our understanding for this key indicator of global change. To a large extent, our confidence in understanding and projecting changes in polar and global ozone is based on our ability to simulate these processes in numerical models of chemistry and transport. The fidelity of the models is assessed in comparison with a wide range of observations. These models depend on laboratory-measured kinetic reaction rates and photolysis cross sections to simulate molecular interactions. A typical stratospheric chemistry mechanism has on the order of 50- 100 species undergoing over a hundred intermolecular reactions and several tens of photolysis reactions. The rates of all of these reactions are subject to uncertainty, some substantial. Given the complexity of the models, however, it is difficult to quantify uncertainties in many aspects of system. In this study we use a simple box-model scenario for Antarctic ozone to estimate the uncertainty in loss attributable to known reaction kinetic uncertainties. Following the method of earlier work, rates and uncertainties from the latest laboratory evaluations are applied in random combinations. We determine the key reactions and rates contributing the largest potential errors and compare the results to observations to evaluate which combinations are consistent with atmospheric data. Implications for our theoretical and practical understanding of polar ozone loss will be assessed.

Description: The Antarctic ozone hole develops each year and culminates by early Spring. Antarctic ozone values have been monitored since 1979 using satellite observations from the .TOMS instrument. The severity of the hole has been assessed from TOMS using the minimum total ozone value from the October monthly mean (depth of the hole) and by calculating the average size during the September-October period. Ozone is mainly destroyed by halogen catalytic cycles, and these losses are modulated by temperature variations in the collar of the polar lower stratospheric vortex. In this presentation, we show the relationships of halogens and temperature to, both the size and depth of the hole. Because atmospheric halogen levels are responding to international agreements that limit or phase out production, the amount of halogens in the stratosphere should decrease over the next few decades. Using projections of halogen levels combined with age-of-air estimates, we find that the ozone hole is recovering at an extremely slow rate and that large ozone holes will regularly recur over the next 2 decades. The ozone hole will begin to show first signs of recovery in about 2023, and the hole will fully recover to pre-1980 levels in approximately 2070. This 2070 recovery is 20 years later than recent projections.

Description: This paper presents comparative analyses of atmospheric radon (Rn) distributions simulated using different emission scenarios and the observations. Results indicate that the model generally reproduces observed distributions of Rn but there are some biases in the model related to differences in large-scale and convective transport. Simulations presented here use an off-line three-dimensional chemical transport model driven by assimilated winds and two scenarios of Rn fluxes (atom/cm s) from ice-free land surfaces: (A) globally uniform flux of 1.0, and (B) uniform flux of 1.0 between 60 deg. S and 30 deg. N followed by a sharp linear decrease to 0.2 at 70 deg. N. We considered an additional scenario (C) where Rn emissions for case A were uniformly reduced by 28%. Results show that case A overpredicts observed Rn distributions in both hemispheres. Simulated northern hemispheric (NH) Rn distributions from cases B and C compare better with the observations, but are not discernible from each other. In the southern hemisphere, surface Rn distributions from case C compare better with the observations. We performed a synoptic scale source-receptor analysis for surface Rn to locate regions with ratios B/A and B/C less than 0.5. Considering an uncertainty in regional Rn emissions of a factor of two, our analysis indicates that additional measurements of surface Rn particularly during April-October and north of 50 deg. N over the Pacific as well as Atlantic regions would make it possible to determine if the proposed latitude gradient in Rn emissions is superior to a uniform flux scenario.

Description: The Antarctic ozone hole develops each year and culminates by early Spring. Antarctic ozone values have been monitored since 1979 using satellite observations from the TOMS and OMI instruments. The severity of the hole has been assessed using the minimum total ozone value from the October monthly mean (depth of the hole), the average size during the September-October period, and the ozone mass deficit. Ozone is mainly destroyed by halogen catalytic cycles, and these losses are modulated by temperature variations in the collar of the polar lower stratospheric vortex. In this presentation, we show the relationships of halogens and temperature to both the size and depth of the hole. Because atmospheric halogen levels are responding to international agreements that limit or phase out production, the amount of halogens in the stratosphere should decrease over the next few decades. We use two methods to estimate ozone hole recovery. First, we use projections of halogen levels combined with age-of-air estimates in a parametric model. Second, we use a coupled chemistry climate model to assess recovery. We find that the ozone hole is recovering at an extremely slow rate and that large ozone holes will regularly recur over the next 2 decades. Furthermore, full recovery to 1980 levels will not occur until approximately 2068. We will also show some error estimates of these dates and the impact of climate change on the recovery.