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  • Meteorology and Climatology  (3)
  • 1
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    Inter-Model Warming Projection Spread: Inherited Traits from Control Climate Diversity (2017)
    In:  CASI
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-06-13
    Description: Since Chaneys report, the range of global warming projections in response to a doubling of CO2from 1.5 C to 4.5 C or greaterremains largely unscathed by the onslaught of new scientific insights. Conventional thinking regards inter-model differences in climate feedbacks as the sole cause of the warming projection spread (WPS). Our findings shed new light on this issue indicating that climate feedbacks inherit diversity from the model control climate, besides the models intrinsic climate feedback diversity that is independent of the control climate state. Regulated by the control climate ice coverage, models with greater (lesser) ice coverage generally possess a colder (warmer) and drier (moister) climate, exhibit a stronger (weaker) ice-albedo feedback, and experience greater (weaker) warming. The water vapor feedback also inherits diversity from the control climate but in an opposite way: a colder (warmer) climate generally possesses a weaker (stronger) water vapor feedback, yielding a weaker (stronger) warming. These inherited traits influence the warming response in opposing manners, resulting in a weaker correlation between the WPS and control climate diversity. Our study indicates that a better understanding of the diversity amongst climate model mean states may help to narrow down the range of global warming projections.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: NF1676L-26987 , Scientific Reports (e-ISSN 2045-2322); 7; 4300
    Format: application/pdf
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    NASA TECHNICAL REPORTS
  • 2
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    Bringing Uncertainty into Focus: Control Climate Lens Clarifies the Inter-Model Spread in Global Warming Projections (2017)
    In:  CASI
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-08-17
    Description: Since Chaneys report, the range of global warming projections in response to a doubling of CO2from 1.5C to 4.5C or greaterremains largely unscathed by the onslaught of new scientific insights. Conventional thinking regards inter-model differences in climate feedbacks as the sole cause of the warming projection spread (WPS). Our findings shed new light on this issue indicating that climate feedbacks inherit diversity from the model control climate. Regulated by the control climate sea ice coverage via its melt potential, models with greater (lesser) sea ice coverage generally possess a colder (warmer) and drier (moister) climate, exhibit a stronger (weaker) ice-albedo feedback, and experience greater (weaker) warming. The water vapor feedback also inherits diversity from the control climate but in an opposite way: a colder (warmer) climate generally possesses a weaker (stronger) water vapor feedback, yielding a weaker (stronger) warming. These inherited traits compete to influence the warming response obscuring the correlation between the WPS and control climate diversity. We envision this new insight and enhanced control climate lens allow us to refocus an old yet underexplored line of inquiry contributing to the ultimate crack in the WPS armor and convergence of the warming projections.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: NF1676L-25903 , Nature Climate Change (ISSN 1758-678X) (e-ISSN 1758-6798); 7; 4300
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    NASA TECHNICAL REPORTS
  • 3
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    Decadal Evolution of the Surface Energy Budget During the Fast Warming and Global Warming Hiatus Periods in the ERA-Interim (2018)
    In:  CASI
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-08-08
    Description: The global-mean surface temperature has experienced a rapid warming from the 1980s to early-2000s but a muted warming since, referred to as the global warming hiatus in the literature. Decadal changes in deep ocean heat uptake are thought to primarily account for the rapid warming and subsequent slowdown. Here, we examine the role of ocean heat uptake in establishing the fast warming and warming hiatus periods in the ERA-Interim through a decomposition of the global-mean surface energy budget. We find the increase of carbon dioxide alone yields a nearly steady increase of the downward longwave radiation at the surface from the 1980s to the present, but neither accounts for the fast warming nor warming hiatus periods. During the global warming hiatus period, the transfer of latent heat energy from the ocean to atmosphere increases and the total downward radiative energy flux to the surface decreases due to a reduction of solar absorption caused primarily by an increase of clouds. The reduction of radiative energy into the ocean and the surface latent heat flux increase cause the ocean heat uptake to decrease and thus contribute to the slowdown of the global-mean surface warming. Our analysis also finds that in addition to a reduction of deep ocean heat uptake, the fast warming period is also driven by enhanced solar absorption due predominantly to a decrease of clouds and by enhanced longwave absorption mainly attributed to the air temperature feedback.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: NF1676L-27597 , Climate Dynamics (ISSN 0930-7575) (e-ISSN 1432-0894); 52; 3-4; 2005-2016
    Format: application/pdf
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    NASA TECHNICAL REPORTS
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