ALBERT

Description: The peak winds near the surface are an important forecast element for space shuttle landings. As defined in the Flight Rules (FR), there are peak wind thresholds that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the shuttle during landing operations. The National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) is responsible for weather forecasts for all shuttle landings, and is required to issue surface average and 10-minute peak wind speed forecasts. They indicate peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast. To alleviate the difficulty in making such wind forecasts, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a PC-based graphical user interface (GUI) for displaying peak wind climatology and probabilities of exceeding peak wind thresholds for the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC; Lambert 2003). However, the shuttle occasionally may land at Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB) in southern California when weather conditions at KSC in Florida are not acceptable, so SMG forecasters requested a similar tool be developed for EAFB.

Description: The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Melbourne, FL (NWS MLB) is responsible for providing meteorological support to state and county emergency management agencies across East Central Florida in the event of incidents involving the significant release of harmful chemicals, radiation, and smoke from fires and/or toxic plumes into the atmosphere. NWS MLB uses the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model to provide trajectory, concentration, and deposition guidance during such events. Accurate and timely guidance is critical for decision makers charged with protecting the health and well-being of populations at risk. Information that can describe the geographic extent of areas possibly affected by a hazardous release, as well as to indicate locations of primary concern, offer better opportunity for prompt and decisive action. In addition, forecasters at the NWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have expressed interest in using the HYSPLIT model to assist with Weather Flight Rules during Space Shuttle landing operations. In particular, SMG would provide low and mid-level HYSPLIT trajectory forecasts for cumulus clouds associated with smoke plumes, and high-level trajectory forecasts for thunderstorm anvils. Another potential benefit for both NWS MLB and SMG is using the HYSPLIT model concentration and deposition guidance in fog situations.

Description: This report summarizes the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) activities for the third quarter of Fiscal Year 2008 (April - June 2008). Tasks reported on are: Peak Wind Tool for User Launch Commit Criteria (LCC), Anvil Forecast Tool in AWIPS Phase II, Completion of the Edward Air Force Base (EAFB) Statistical Guidance Wind Tool, Volume Averaged Height Integ rated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR), Impact of Local Sensors, Radar Scan Strategies for the PAFB WSR-74C Replacement, VAHIRR Cost Benefit Analysis, and WRF Wind Sensitivity Study at Edwards Air Force Base

Description: The goal of this task was to develop a GUI using EAFB wind tower data similar to the KSC SLF peak wind tool that is already in operations at SMG. In 2004, MSFC personnel began work to replicate the KSC SLF tool using several wind towers at EAFB. They completed the analysis and QC of the data, but due to higher priority work did not start development of the GUI. MSFC personnel calculated wind climatologies and probabilities of 10-minute peak wind occurrence based on the 2-minute average wind speed for several EAFB wind towers. Once the data were QC'ed and analyzed the climatologies were calculated following the methodology outlined in Lambert (2003). The climatologies were calculated for each tower and month, and then were stratified by hour, direction (10" sectors), and direction (45" sectors)/hour. For all climatologies, MSFC calculated the mean, standard deviation and observation counts of the Zminute average and 10-minute peak wind speeds. MSFC personnel also calculated empirical and modeled probabilities of meeting or exceeding specific 10- minute peak wind speeds using PDFs. The empirical PDFs were asymmetrical and bounded on the left by the 2- minute average wind speed. They calculated the parametric PDFs by fitting the GEV distribution to the empirical distributions. Parametric PDFs were calculated in order to smooth and interpolate over variations in the observed values due to possible under-sampling of certain peak winds and to estimate probabilities associated with average winds outside the observed range. MSFC calculated the individual probabilities of meeting or exceeding specific 10- minute peak wind speeds by integrating the area under each curve. The probabilities assist SMG forecasters in assessing the shuttle FR for various Zminute average wind speeds. The A M ' obtained the processed EAFB data from Dr. Lee Bums of MSFC and reformatted them for input to Excel PivotTables, which allow users to display different values with point-click-drag techniques. The GUI was created from the PivotTables using VBA code. It is run through a macro within Excel and allows forecasters to quickly display and interpret peak wind climatology and probabilities in a fast-paced operational environment. The GUI was designed to look and operate exactly the same as the KSC SLF tool since SMG forecasters were already familiar with that product. SMG feedback was continually incorporated into the GUI ensuring the end product met their needs. The final version of the GUI along with all climatologies, PDFs, and probabilities has been delivered to SMG and will be put into operational use.

Description: For expedience in delivering dispersion guidance in the diversity of operational situations, National Weather Service Melbourne (MLB) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) are becoming increasingly reliant on the PC-based version of the HYSPLIT model run through a graphical user interface (GUI). While the GUI offers unique advantages when compared to traditional methods, it is difficult for forecasters to run and manage in an operational environment. To alleviate the difficulty in providing scheduled real-time trajectory and concentration guidance, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) configured a Linux version of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) (HYSPLIT) model that ingests the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) guidance, such as the North American Mesoscale (NAM) and the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) models. The AMU configured the HYSPLIT system to automatically download the NCEP model products, convert the meteorological grids into HYSPLIT binary format, run the model from several pre-selected latitude/longitude sites, and post-process the data to create output graphics. In addition, the AMU configured several software programs to convert local Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model output into HYSPLIT format.

Description: The peak winds near the surface are an important forecast element for Space Shuttle landings. As defined in the Shuttle Flight Rules (FRs), there are peak wind thresholds that cannot be exceeded in order to ensure the safety of the shuttle during landing operations. The National Weather Service Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) is responsible for weather forecasts for all shuttle landings. They indicate peak winds are a challenging parameter to forecast. To alleviate the difficulty in making such wind forecasts, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMTJ) developed a personal computer based graphical user interface (GUI) for displaying peak wind climatology and probabilities of exceeding peak-wind thresholds for the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) at Kennedy Space Center. However, the shuttle must land at Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB) in southern California when weather conditions at Kennedy Space Center in Florida are not acceptable, so SMG forecasters requested that a similar tool be developed for EAFB. Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) personnel archived and performed quality control of 2-minute average and 10-minute peak wind speeds at each tower adjacent to the main runway at EAFB from 1997- 2004. They calculated wind climatologies and probabilities of average peak wind occurrence based on the average speed. The climatologies were calculated for each tower and month, and were stratified by hour, direction, and direction/hour. For the probabilities of peak wind occurrence, MSFC calculated empirical and modeled probabilities of meeting or exceeding specific 10-minute peak wind speeds using probability density functions. The AMU obtained and reformatted the data into Microsoft Excel PivotTables, which allows users to display different values with point-click-drag techniques. The GUT was then created from the PivotTables using Visual Basic for Applications code. The GUI is run through a macro within Microsoft Excel and allows forecasters to quickly display and interpret peak wind climatology and likelihoods in a fast-paced operational environment. A summary of how the peak wind climatologies and probabilities were created and an overview of the GUT will be presented.