ALBERT

Description: The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a new airborne microwave remote sensor for hurricane observations that is currently under development by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, NOAA Hurricane Research Division, the University of Central Florida and the University of Michigan. HIRAD is being designed to enhance the realtime airborne ocean surface winds observation capabilities of NOAA and USAF Weather Squadron hurricane hunter aircraft using the operational airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR). Unlike SFMR, which measures wind speed and rain rate along the ground track directly beneath the aircraft, HIRAD will provide images of the surface wind and rain field over a wide swath (~ 3 x the aircraft altitude). The present paper describes a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) in which measurements from the new instrument as well as those from existing instruments (air, surface, and space-based) are simulated from the output of a detailed numerical model, and those results are used to construct H*Wind analyses. The H*Wind analysis, a product of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, brings together wind measurements from a variety of observation platforms into an objective analysis of the distribution of wind speeds in a tropical cyclone. This product is designed to improve understanding of the extent and strength of the wind field, and to improve the assessment of hurricane intensity. See http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/wind.html. Evaluations will be presented on the impact of the HIRAD instrument on H*Wind analyses, both in terms of adding it to the full suite of current measurements, as well as using it to replace instrument(s) that may not be functioning at the future time the HIRAD instrument is implemented. Also shown will be preliminary results of numerical weather prediction OSSEs in which the impact of the addition of HIRAD observations to the initial state on numerical forecasts of the hurricane intensity and structure is assessed.

Description: The enclosed publications constitute our final report. These are publications completed in referred journals. The completed work includes: Meteorological conditions associated with vertical distributions of aerosols off the west coast of Africa. TRACE-A trajectory intercomparison 2. Isentropic and kinematic methods. Chemical characteristics of tropospheric air over the tropical South Atlantic Ocean: Relationship to trajectory history. Passive Tracer Transport Relevant to the TRACE-A Experiment. The meteorological environment of the tropospheric ozone maximum over the tropical south Atlantic Ocean. : Influence of a middle-latitude cyclone on tropospheric ozone distributions during a period of TRACE-A. All of this work provided the meteorological background for the Transport of Atmospheric Chemistry near the Equator (TRACE-A) project sponsored by Dr,, Joe McNeal of NASA. Our principal findings are that bio-mass burning sources from Africa and South America did contribute to the accumulation of tropospheric ozone over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Other findings relate to circulations, advections of Ozone and other plausible sources for the TOMS based ozone maximum over the Atlantic Ocean.

Description: The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a new airborne microwave remote sensor for hurricane observations that is currently under development by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, NOAA Hurricane Research Division, the University of Central Florida and the University of Michigan. HIRAD is being designed to enhance the realtime airborne ocean surface winds observation capabilities of NOAA and USAF Weather Squadron hurricane hunter aircraft using the operational airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR). Unlike SFMR, which measures wind speed and rain rate along the ground track directly beneath the aircraft, HIRAD will provide images of the surface wind and rain field over a wide swath (~ 3 x the aircraft altitude). The present paper describes a set of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) in which measurements from the new instrument as well as those from existing instruments (air, surface, and space-based) are simulated from the output of a detailed numerical model, and those results are used to construct H*Wind analyses. The H*Wind analysis, a product of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, brings together wind measurements from a variety of observation platforms into an objective analysis of the distribution of wind speeds in a tropical cyclone. This product is designed to improve understanding of the extent and strength of the wind field, and to improve the assessment of hurricane intensity. See http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/wind.html. Evaluations will be presented on the impact of the HIRAD instrument on H*Wind analyses, both in terms of adding it to the full suite of current measurements, as well as using it to replace instrument(s) that may not be functioning at the future time the HIRAD instrument is deployed. Plans to demonstrate the potential for HIRAD to improve numerical weather prediction of hurricanes will also be presented.

Description: Realistic vertical heating and drying profiles in a cumulus scheme is important for obtaining accurate weather forecasts. A new empirical cumulus parameterization scheme based on a procedure to improve the vertical distribution of heating and moistening over the tropics is developed. The empirical cumulus parameterization scheme (ECPS) utilizes profiles of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) based heating and moistening derived from the European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis. A dimension reduction technique through rotated principal component analysis (RPCA) is performed on the vertical profiles of heating (Q1) and drying (Q2) over the convective regions of the tropics, to obtain the dominant modes of variability. Analysis suggests that most of the variance associated with the observed profiles can be explained by retaining the first three modes. The ECPS then applies a statistical approach in which Q1 and Q2 are expressed as a linear combination of the first three dominant principal components which distinctly explain variance in the troposphere as a function of the prevalent large-scale dynamics. The principal component (PC) score which quantifies the contribution of each PC to the corresponding loading profile is estimated through a multiple screening regression method which yields the PC score as a function of the large-scale variables. The profiles of Q1 and Q2 thus obtained are found to match well with the observed profiles. The impact of the ECPS is investigated in a series of short range (1-3 day) prediction experiments using the Florida State University global spectral model (FSUGSM, T126L14). Comparisons between short range ECPS forecasts and those with the modified Kuo scheme show a very marked improvement in the skill in ECPS forecasts. This improvement in the forecast skill with ECPS emphasizes the importance of incorporating realistic vertical distributions of heating and drying in the model cumulus scheme. This also suggests that in the absence of explicit models for convection, the proposed statistical scheme improves the modeling of the vertical distribution of heating and moistening in areas of deep convection.

Description: This study explores the impact on hurricane data assimilation and forecasts from the use of dropsondes and remote-sensed moisture profiles from the airborne Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment (LASE) system. We show that the use of these additional data sets, above those from the conventional world weather watch, has a positive impact on hurricane predictions. The forecast tracks and intensity from the experiments show a marked improvement compared to the control experiment where such data sets were excluded. A study of the moisture budget in these hurricanes showed enhanced evaporation and precipitation over the storm area. This resulted in these data sets making a large impact on the estimate of mass convergence and moisture fluxes, which were much smaller in the control runs. Overall this study points to the importance of high vertical resolution humidity data sets for improved model results. We note that the forecast impact from the moisture profiling data sets for some of the storms is even larger than the impact from the use of dropwindsonde based winds.

Description: LASE (Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment) onboard the NASA DC-8 was used to measure high resolution profiles of water vapor and aerosols, and cloud distributions in 14 flights over the eastern Atlantic region during the NAMMA (NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses) field experiment, which was conducted from August 15 to September 12, 2006. These measurements were made in conjunction with flights designed to study African Easterly Waves (AEW), Tropical Disturbances (TD), and Saharan Aerosol Layers (SALs) as well as flights performed in clear air and convective regions. As a consequence of their unique radiative properties and dynamics, SAL layers have a significant influence in the development of organized convection associated with TD. Interactions of the SAL with tropical air during early stages of the development of TD were observed. These LASE measurements represent the first simultaneous water vapor and aerosol lidar measurements to study the SAL and its impact on TDs and hurricanes. Seven AEWs were studied and four of these evolved into tropical storms and three did not. Three out of the four tropical storms evolved into hurricanes.

Description: LASE (Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment) on-board the NASA DC-8 measured high resolution profiles of water vapor and aerosols, and cloud distributions in 14 flights over the eastern North Atlantic during the NAMMA (NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses) field experiment. These measurements were used to study African easterly waves (AEWs), tropical cyclones (TCs), and the Saharan Air Layer(s) (SAL). Interactions between the SAL and tropical air were observed during the early stages of the TC development. These LASE measurements represent the first simultaneous water vapor and aerosol lidar measurements to study the SAL and its impact on AEWs and TCs. Examples of profile measurements of aerosol scattering ratios, aerosol extinction coefficients, aerosol optical thickness, water vapor mixing ratios, RH, and temperature are presented to illustrate their characteristics in SAL, convection, and clear air regions. LASE data suggest that the SAL suppresses low-altitude convection at the convection-SAL interface region. Mid-level convection associated with the AEW and transport are likely responsible for high water vapor content observed in the southern regions of the SAL on August 20, 2008. This interaction is responsible for the transfer of about 7 x 10(exp 15) J latent heat energy within a day to the SAL. Measurements of lidar extinction-to-backscatter ratios in the range 36+/-5 to 45+/-5 are within the range of measurements from other lidar measurements of dust. LASE aerosol extinction and water vapor profiles are validated by comparison with onboard in situ aerosol measurements and GPS dropsonde water vapor soundings, respectively.

Description: The Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment (LASE) participated in the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA) field experiment in 2006 that was conducted from Sal, Cape Verde to study the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) and its influence on the African Easterly Waves (AEWs) and Tropical Cyclones (TCs). During NAMMA, LASE collected simultaneous water vapor and aerosol lidar measurements from 14 flights onboard the NASA DC- 8. In this paper we present three examples of the interaction of the SAL and AEWs regarding: moistening of the SAL and transfer of latent heat; injection of dust in an updraft; and influence of dry air intrusion on an AEW. A brief discussion is also given on activities related to the refurbishment of LASE to enhance its operational performance and plans to participate in the next NASA hurricane field experiment in the summer of 2010.

Description: Rainfall is a key link in the hydrologic cycle and is a primary heat source for the atmosphere. The vertical distribution of latent-heat release, which is accompanied by rainfall, modulates the large-scale circulations of the tropics and in turn can impact midlatitude weather. This latent heat release is a consequence of phase changes between vapor, liquid, and solid water. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), a joint U.S./Japan space project, was launched in November 1997. It provides an accurate measurement of rainfall over the global tropics which can be used to estimate the four-dimensional structure of latent heating over the global tropics. The distributions of rainfall and inferred heating can be used to advance our understanding of the global energy and water cycle. This paper describes several different algorithms for estimating latent heating using TRMM observations. The strengths and weaknesses of each algorithm as well as the heating products are also discussed. The validation of heating products will be exhibited. Finally, the application of this heating information to global circulation and climate models is presented.

Description: The hazards of landfalling hurricanes are well known, but progress on improving the intensity forecasts of these deadly storms at landfall has been slow. Many cite a lack of high-resolution data sets taken inside the core of a hurricane, and the lack of reliable measurements in extreme conditions near the surface of hurricanes, as possible reasons why even the most state-of-the-art forecasting models cannot seem to forecast intensity changes better. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a new airborne microwave remote sensor for observing hurricanes, and is operated and researched by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center in partnership with the NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory/Hurricane Research Division, the University of Central Florida, the University of Michigan, and the University of Alabama in Huntsville. This instrument?s purpose is to study the wind field of a hurricane, specifically observing surface wind speeds and rain rates, in what has traditionally been the most difficult areas for other instruments to study; the high wind and heavy rain regions. Dr. T. N. Krishnamurti has studied various data assimilation techniques for hurricane and monsoon rain rates, and this study builds off of results obtained from utilizing his style of physical initializations of rainfall observations, but obtaining reliable observations in heavy rain regions has always presented trouble to our research of high-resolution rainfall forecasting. Reliable data from these regions at such a high resolution and wide swath as HIRAD provides is potentially very valuable to mesoscale forecasting of hurricane intensity. This study shows how the data assimilation technique of Ensemble Kalman Filtering (EnKF) in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can be used to incorporate wind, and later rain rate, data into a mesoscale model forecast of hurricane intensity. The study makes use of an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) with a simulated HIRAD dataset sampled during a hurricane and uses EnKF to forecast the track and intensity prediction of the hurricane. Comparisons to truth and error metrics are used to assess the model?s forecast performance.