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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 117 (2012): G03029, doi:10.1029/2012JG001977.
    Description: Changes of vegetation phenology in response to climate change in the temperate forests have been well documented recently and have important implications on the regional and global carbon and water cycles. Predicting the impact of changing phenology on terrestrial ecosystems requires an accurate phenology model. Although species-level phenology models have been tested using a small number of vegetation species, they are rarely examined at the regional level. In this study, we used remotely sensed phenology and meteorological data to parameterize the species-level phenology models. We used a remotely sensed vegetation index (Two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index, EVI2) derived from the Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 8-day reflectance product from 2000 to 2010 of New England, United States to calculate remotely sensed vegetation phenology (start/end of season, or SOS/EOS). The SOS/EOS and the daily mean air temperature data from weather stations were used to parameterize three budburst models and one senescence model. We compared the relative strengths of the models to predict vegetation phenology and selected the best model to reconstruct the “landscape phenology” in New England from year 1960 to 2010. Of the three budburst models tested, the spring warming model showed the best performance with an averaged Root Mean Square Deviation (RMSD) of 4.59 days. The Akaike Information Criterion supported the spring warming model in all the weather stations. For senescence modeling, the Delpierre model was better than a null model (the averaged phenology of each weather station, averaged model efficiency = 0.33) and has a RMSD of 8.05 days. A retrospective analysis using the spring warming model suggests a statistically significant advance of SOS in New England from 1960 to 2010 averaged as 0.143 days per year (p = 0.015). EOS calculated using the Delpierre model and growing season length showed no statistically significant advance or delay between 1960 and 2010 in this region. These results suggest the applicability of species-level phenology models at the regional level (and potentially terrestrial biosphere models) and the feasibility of using these models in reconstructing and predicting vegetation phenology.
    Description: This research was supported by the Brown University–Marine Biological Laboratory graduate program in Biological and Environmental Sciences, Brown–ECI phenology working group, and Brown Office of International Affairs Seed Grant on phenology.
    Description: 2013-03-14
    Keywords: Budburst/senescence ; Chilling ; Growing season length ; Phenology model ; Photoperiod ; Remote sensing
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ecology and Evolution 7 (2017): 9775–9786, doi:10.1002/ece3.3445.
    Description: Eriophorum vaginatum is a tussock-forming sedge that contributes significantly to the structure and primary productivity of moist acidic tussock tundra. Locally adapted populations (ecotypes) have been identified across the geographical distribution of E. vaginatum; however, little is known about how their growth and phenology differ over the course of a growing season. The growing season is short in the Arctic and therefore exerts a strong selection pressure on tundra species. This raises the hypothesis that the phenology of arctic species may be poorly adapted if the timing and length of the growing season change. Mature E. vaginatum tussocks from across a latitudinal gradient (65–70°N) were transplanted into a common garden at a central location (Toolik Lake, 68°38′N, 149°36′W) where half were warmed using open-top chambers. Over two growing seasons (2015 and 2016), leaf length was measured weekly to track growth rates, timing of senescence, and biomass accumulation. Growth rates were similar across ecotypes and between years and were not affected by warming. However, southern populations accumulated significantly more biomass, largely because they started to senesce later. In 2016, peak biomass and senescence of most populations occurred later than in 2015, probably induced by colder weather at the beginning of the growing season in 2016, which caused a delayed start to growth. The finish was delayed as well. Differences in phenology between populations were largely retained between years, suggesting that the amount of time that these ecotypes grow has been selected by the length of the growing seasons at their respective home sites. As potential growing seasons lengthen, E. vaginatum may be unable to respond appropriately as a result of genetic control and may have reduced fitness in the rapidly warming Arctic tundra.
    Description: National Science Foundation Grant Numbers: 1417645, 1417763, 1418010
    Keywords: Arctic tundra ; Common garden ; Ecotypes ; Eriophorum vaginatum ; Growing season length ; Local adaptation ; Phenology ; Senescence
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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