ALBERT

Description: In our investigation of the correlation of global nonpotentiality of active regions to their CME productivity (Falconer, D.A. 2001, JGR, in press, and Falconer, Moore, & Gary, 2000, EOS 82, 20 S323), we use Yohkoh SXT images for two purposes. The first use is to help resolve the 180 degree ambiguity in the direction of the observed transverse magnetic field. Resolution of the 180 degree ambiguity is important, since the net current, one of our measures of global nonpotentiality, is derived from integrating the dot product of the transverse field around a contour (I(sub N)=(integral)BT(raised dot)dl). The ambiguity results from the observed transverse field being determined from the linear polarization, which gives the plane of the direction, but leaves a 180 degrees ambiguity. Automated methods to resolve the ambiguity ranging from the simple acute angle rule (Falconer, D.A. 2001) to the more sophisticated annealing method (Metcalf T.R. 1994). For many active regions, especially ones that are nearly potential these methods work well. But for very nonpotential active regions where the shear angle (the angle between the observed and potential transverse field) is near 90 degrees throughout large swaths along the main neutral line, both methods can resolve the ambiguity incorrectly for long segments of the neutral line. By determining from coronal images, such as those from Yohkoh/SXT, the sense of shear along the main neutral line in the active region, these cases can be identified and corrected by a modification of the acute angle rule described here. The second use of Yohkoh/SXT in this study is to check for the cusped coronal arcades of long-duration eruptive flares. This signature is an excellent proxy for CMEs, and was used by Canfield, Hudson, and McKenzie (1999 GRL V26, 6, 627-630). This work is funded by NSF through the Space Weather Program and by NASA through the Solar Physics Supporting Research and Technology Program.

Description: In a negative-polarity coronal hole, magnetic flux emergence, seen by the Solar Dynamics Observatory's {SDO) Helioseismic Magnetic lmager (HMI), begins at approximately 19:00 UT on March 3, 2016. The emerged magnetic field produced sunspots, which NOAA numbered 12514 two days later. The emerging magnetic field is largely bipolar with the opposite-polarity fluxes spreading apart overall, but there is simultaneously some convergence and cancellation of opposite-polarity flux at the polarity inversion line (PIL) inside the emerging bipole. In the first fifteen hours after emergence onset, three obvious eruptions occur, observed in the coronal EUV images from SDO's Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA). The first two erupt from separate segments of the external PIL between the emerging positve-polarity flux and the extant surrounding negative-polarity flux, with the exploding magnetic field being prepared and triggered by flux cancellation at the external PIL. The emerging bipole shows obvious overall left-handed shear and/or twist in its magnetic field. The focus of th is poster is the third and largest eruption, which comes from inside the emerging bipole and blows it open to produce a CME observed by SOHO/LASCO. That eruption is preceded by flux cancellation at the emerging bipole's interior PIL, cancellation that plausibly builds a sheared and twisted flux rope above the interior PIL and finally triggers the blow-out eruption of the flux rope via photospheric-convectiondriven slow tether-cutting reconnection of the legs of the sheared core field, low above the interior PIL, as proposed by van Ballegooijen & Martens (1989) and Moore & Roumeliotis (1992). The production of this eruption is a (perhaps rare) counterexample to solar eruptions that result from external collisional shearing between opposite polarities from two distinct emerging and/or emerged bipoles (Chintzoglou et al. 2019).

Description: We show that the length of strong-gradient, strong-field main neutral line, L(sub SGM), which can be measured from line-of-sight magnetograms such as from SOHO/MDI, is both a measure of active-region nonpotentiality and a useful predictor of an active region's future CME productivity. To demonstrate that L(sub SGM) is a nonpotentiality measure, we show that it is strongly correlated with a direct measure of nonpotentiality. For an appropriate choice of a threshold value, an active region s measured LsGM can be used as a predictor of whether the active region will produce a CME within a few days after the magnetogram. For our set of 36 MSFC vector magnetograms of bipolar active regions, L(sub SGM) is found to have a success rate of 80% for prediction of CME productivity in the 0-2 day window. The development of L(sub SGM) as a method of measuring nonpotentiality for forecasting large, fast CMEs from present space based assets is of value to NASA's Space Exploration Initiative (manned missions to the Moon and Mars)

Description: We have found that active regions that are likely to be CME productive can be identified from measures of their nonpotentiality from magnetograms. We have developed four different measures from vector magnetograms and another that can be obtained from a line-of-sight magnetogram. We find that all five measures are strongly correlated with CME productivity to a similar degree. Hence, all five are roughly equally good predictors of active-region CME productivity. Since the measures all have similar predictive ability, the measures that are easiest to reliably measure are the best for operational forecasting of CMEs. The two best measures are the length of strong-shear main neutral line L(sub SS) (the length of the main neutral line with the magnetic shear angle greater than 45deg and observed transverse field greater than 150G) and the length of strong-gradient main neutral line L(sub G) (the length of the main neutral line with line-of-sight magnetic field greater than 50G/Mm and potential transverse field greater than 150G). As L(sub G) is measured from line-of-sight magnetograms it opens the larger data base of SOHO/MDI and Kitt Peak line-of-sight magnetograms for CME prediction study. This is especially important for evolutionary studies, with SOHO/MDI having no daylight, cloudy weather, or atmospheric seeing problems.