ALBERT

Description: Ozone (O3) precursor emissions influence regional and global climate and air quality through changes in tropospheric O3 and oxidants, which also influence methane (CH4) and sulfate aerosols (SO4 (sup 2-)). We examine changes in the tropospheric composition of O3, CH4, SO4 (sup 2-) and global net radiative forcing (RF) for 20% reductions in global CH4 burden and in anthropogenic O3 precursor emissions (NOx, NMVOC, and CO) from four regions (East Asia, Europe and Northern Africa, North America, and South Asia) using the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, assessing uncertainty (mean plus or minus 1 standard deviation) across multiple CTMs. We evaluate steady state O3 responses, including long-term feedbacks via CH4. With a radiative transfer model that includes greenhouse gases and the aerosol direct effect, we find that regional NOx reductions produce global, annually averaged positive net RFs (0.2 plus or minus 0.6 to 1.7 2 mWm(sup -2)/Tg N yr(sup -1), with some variation among models. Negative net RFs result from reductions in global CH4 (-162.6 plus or minus 2 mWm(sup -2) for a change from 1760 to 1408 ppbv CH4) and regional NMVOC (-0.4 plus or minus 0.2 to 0.7 plus or minus 0.2 mWm(sup -2)/Tg C yr(sup -1) and CO emissions (-0.13 plus or minus 0.02 to -0.15 plus or minus 0.02 mWm(sup-2)/Tg CO yr(sup-1). Including the effect of O3 on CO2 uptake by vegetation likely makes these net RFs more negative by -1.9 to- 5.2 mWm(sup -2)/Tg N yr(sup -1), -0.2 to -0.7 mWm(sup -2)/Tg C yr(sup -1), and -0.02 to -0.05 mWm(sup -2)/ Tg CO yr(sup -1). Net RF impacts reflect the distribution of concentration changes, where RF is affected locally by changes in SO4 (sup -2), regionally to hemispherically by O3, and globally by CH4. Global annual average SO4 2 responses to oxidant changes range from 0.4 plus or minus 2.6 to -1.9 plus or minus 1.3 Gg for NOx reductions, 0.1 plus or minus 1.2 to -0.9 plus or minus 0.8 Gg for NMVOC reductions, and -0.09 plus or minus 0.5 to -0.9 plus or minus 0.8 Gg for CO reductions, suggesting additional research is needed. The 100-year global warming potentials (GWP(sub 100)) are calculated for the global CH4 reduction (20.9 plus or minus 3.7 without stratospheric O3 or water vapor, 24.2 plus or minus 4.2 including those components), and for the regional NOx, NMVOC, and CO reductions (18.7 plus or minus 25.9 to 1.9 plus or minus 8.7 for NOx, 4.8 plus or minus 1.7 to 8.3 plus or minus 1.9 for NMVOC, and 1.5 plus or minus 0.4 to 1.7 plus or minus 0.5 for CO). Variation in GWP(sub 100) for NOx, NMVOC, and CO suggests that regionally specific GWPs may be necessary and could support the inclusion of O3 precursors in future policies that address air quality and climate change simultaneously. Both global net RF and GWP100 are more sensitive to NOx and NMVOC reductions from South Asia than the other three regions.

Description: Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC), a component of fine particulate matter (PM 〈 or = 2.5 microns in aerodynamic diameter; PM2.5), are associated with premature mortality and they disrupt global and regional climate. Objectives: We examined the air quality and health benefits of 14 specific emission control measures targeting BC and methane, an ozone precursor, that were selected because of their potential to reduce the rate of climate change over the next 20-40 years. Methods: We simulated the impacts of mitigation measures on outdoor concentrations of PM2.5 and ozone using two composition-climate models, and calculated associated changes in premature PM2.5 and ozone-related deaths using epidemiologically derived concentration-response functions. Results: We estimated that, for PM2.5 and ozone, respectively, fully implementing these measures could reduce global population-weighted average surface concentrations by 23-34% and 7-17% and avoid 0.6-4.4 and 0.04-0.52 million annual premature deaths globally in 2030. More than 80% of the health benefits are estimated to occur in Asia. We estimated that BC mitigation measures would achieve approximately 98% of the deaths that would be avoided if all BC and methane mitigation measures were implemented, due to reduced BC and associated reductions of nonmethane ozone precursor and organic carbon emissions as well as stronger mortality relationships for PM2.5 relative to ozone. Although subject to large uncertainty, these estimates and conclusions are not strongly dependent on assumptions for the concentration-response function. Conclusions: In addition to climate benefits, our findings indicate that the methane and BC emission control measures would have substantial co-benefits for air quality and public health worldwide, potentially reversing trends of increasing air pollution concentrations and mortality in Africa and South, West, and Central Asia. These projected benefits are independent of carbon dioxide mitigation measures. Benefits of BC measures are underestimated because we did not account for benefits from reduced indoor exposures and because outdoor exposure estimates were limited by model spatial resolution.

Description: Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM(sub 2.5)) is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air-pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths per year), likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382000 (121000 to 728000) deaths per year in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths per year in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM(sub 2.5) concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios, due to projected reductions in emissions, and are associated with avoided premature mortality, particularly in 2100: between 2.39 and 1.31 million deaths per year for the four RCPs. The global mortality burden of PM(sub 2.5) is estimated to decrease from 1.70 (1.30 to 2.10) million deaths per year in 2000 to between 0.95 and 1.55 million deaths per year in 2100 for the four RCPs due to the combined effect of decreases in PM(sub 2.5) concentrations and changes in population and baseline mortality rates. Trends in future air-pollution-related mortality vary regionally across scenarios, reflecting assumptions for economic growth and air pollution control specific to each RCP and region. Mortality estimates differ among chemistry climate models due to differences in simulated pollutant concentrations, which is the greatest contributor to overall mortality uncertainty for most cases assessed here, supporting the use of model ensembles to characterize uncertainty. Increases in exposed population and baseline mortality rates of respiratory diseases magnify the impact on premature mortality of changes in future air pollutant concentrations and explain why the future global mortality burden of air pollution can exceed the current burden, even where air pollutant concentrations decrease.

Description: Controlling smog and soot is the classic win-win situation, so it's great that the world is finally waking up to the idea. WHAT if there was a way to simultaneously slow down climate change, save millions of lives, improve crop yields and contribute to sustainable development and energy security? It sounds too good to be true, but it is possible. It won't be free or easy, but with some effort and moderate investment, it can be done. The way to do it is to reduce emissions leading to two types of pollution: black carbon and ozone. These are the only pollutants that we know contribute to both global warming and poor air quality. Black carbon is essentially soot, emitted from incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass. It warms the climate in two ways: by absorbing heat in the atmosphere - similar to the greenhouse effect - and by reducing Earth's albedo, or ability to reflect sunlight. Inhaled into the lungs, it leads to cancer and cardiovascular disease. Ozone in the atmosphere also acts as a greenhouse gas, while ground-level ozone is toxic to humans and plants, so leads to both premature death and reduced crop yields. Ozone is not emitted directly but is produced by the action of sunlight on other pollutants, which are known as ozone precursors. Since black carbon and ozone are important components of soot and smog, a great deal of effort has already been put into developing methods to reduce emissions. So effective technology is available, but needs wider implementation. The recommended control measures for black carbon include widespread and tight emission standards on diesel cars and trucks; improved solid fuel cooking stoves, brick kilns and coke ovens in the developing world; and a ban on the open burning of agricultural waste. Implementation of these measures would have a rapid impact on the climate and human health, and also have the added benefit of greatly reducing emissions of carbon monoxide, an important ozone precursor. A second key ozone precursor is methane, which is also a powerful greenhouse gas in its own right. Control measures include reducing leaks from natural gas pipelines and storage tanks, and capturing it from coal, gas and oil extraction, landfills and wastewater treatment plants. Aeration of rice paddies and manure management can also reduce methane releases. Captured methane can often be sold or turned into power. In Monterrey, Mexico, for example, electricity generated from methane collected from the city landfill powers the public transportation system. So such measures can be beneficial even when ignoring the health and climate effects, as they can contribute to energy security and often pay for themselves. According to calculations by me and my colleagues, phasing in all these measures over the next 20 years would reduce global warming by about 0.5 degC in 2050, half of the projected increase between now and then (Science, vol 335, p 183). Regional benefits would be even greater, as black carbon disrupts rainfall patterns and magnifies warming and melting of snow and ice in parts of the world including the Arctic and the Himalayas. On top of the climate benefits, cutting black carbon and ozone would prevent over 3 million premature deaths from air pollution, and increase yields of staple crops by roughly 50 million tonnes a year. Improved cooking stoves would also decrease the demand for firewood in the developing world, reducing deforestation and freeing up time for those who collect wood - primarily women and children - to pursue other activities such as education. Similarly, improved brick kilns now being used in parts of Latin America and Asia require half as much fuel as traditional ones and are less time-intensive for the operators. This means that in addition to their environmental benefits, these measures can contribute to sustainable and human development. Tackling black carbon and methane is clearly a great idea, so why hasn't it been done already? There are many barriers. The upfront costs of some measures can be prohibitive even when they eventually pay for themselves. But this can be overcome by mechanisms such as international financing of capital costs. For other measures, the costs are typically borne by a few while the benefits accrue to everybody. In such cases civil society and governments must get involved. Governments are starting to act. In February, the US, Canada, Sweden, Bangladesh, Ghana and Mexico launched the Climate and Clean Air Coalition to support implementation of measures like these. This coalition will hopefully expand and achieve rapid, widespread adoption of measures to cut black carbon and ozone. While the climate benefits will be substantial, it is important to note that these measures cannot substitute for cuts in carbon dioxide. Black carbon, ozone, carbon monoxide and methane stay in the atmosphere for a fairly short time - a few days for black carbon and about a decade for methane. They thus respond quickly to emissions changes and give us substantial leverage over near-term climate change. In contrast, carbon dioxide is very long-lived and so responds slowly to emissions changes. This means that cuts have little immediate impact, but it also means they must be made now to avoid disastrous changes later on. Controlling short-lived climate pollutants is thus an issue of fairness. Much as failure to reduce carbon dioxide emissions soon would condemn future generations to disastrous change, failure to reduce near-term climate change condemns those alive today to suffer worsening effects of the sort already seen. Some wonder if we really can do both. We can, and we must.

Description: Emissions from landscape fires affect both climate and air quality. Here, we combine satellite-derived fire estimates and atmospheric modelling to quantify health effects from fire emissions in southeast Asia from 1997 to 2006. This region has large interannual variability in fire activity owing to coupling between El Nino-induced droughts and anthropogenic land-use change. We show that during strong El Nino years, fires contribute up to 200 micrograms per cubic meter and 50 ppb in annual average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone surface concentrations near fire sources, respectively. This corresponds to a fire contribution of 200 additional days per year that exceed the World Health Organization 50 micrograms per cubic metre 24-hr PM(sub 2.5) interim target and an estimated 10,800 (6,800-14,300)-person (approximately 2 percent) annual increase in regional adult cardiovascular mortality. Our results indicate that reducing regional deforestation and degradation fires would improve public health along with widely established benefits from reducing carbon emissions, preserving biodiversity and maintaining ecosystem services.