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Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population : analysis of coupled demographic and climate models (2012)

Jenouvrier, Stephanie ; Holland, Marika M. ; Stroeve, Julienne ; [et al.]

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Publication Date: 2022-05-26

Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2012. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of John Wiley & Sons for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Change Biology 18 (2012): 2756–2770, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02744.x.

Description: Sea ice conditions in the Antarctic affect the life cycle of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). We present a population projection for the emperor penguin population of Terre Adelie, Antarctica, by linking demographic models (stage-structured, seasonal, nonlinear, two-sex matrix population models) to sea ice forecasts from an ensemble of IPCC climate models. Based on maximum likelihood capture-mark-recapture analysis, we find that seasonal sea ice concentration anomalies (SICa) affect adult survival and breeding success. Demographic models show that both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates are maximized at intermediate values of annual SICa, because neither the complete absence of sea ice, nor heavy and persistent sea ice, would provide satisfactory conditions for the emperor penguin. We show that under some conditions the stochastic growth rate is positively affected by the variance in SICa. We identify an ensemble of 5 general circulation climate models whose output closely matches the historical record of sea ice concentration in Terre Adelie. The output of this ensemble is used to produce stochastic forecasts of SICa, which in turn drive the population model. Uncertainty is included by incorporating multiple climate models and by a parametric bootstrap procedure that includes parameter uncertainty due to both model selection and estimation error. The median of these simulations predicts a decline of the Terre Adelie emperor penguin population of 81% by the year 2100. We find a 43% chance of an even greater decline, of 90% or more. The uncertainty in population projections reflects large differences among climate models in their forecasts of future sea ice conditions. One such model predicts population increases over much of the century, but overall, the ensemble of models predicts that population declines are far more likely than population increases. We conclude that climate change is a significant risk for the emperor penguin. Our analytical approach, in which demographic models are linked to IPCC climate models, is powerful and generally applicable to other species and systems.

Description: MH acknowledges support through the National Science Foundation. HC acknowledges support from NSF Grant DEB-0816514, from the WHOI Arctic Research Initiative, and from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation.

Keywords: Stochastic matrix population model ; Stochastic climate forecast ; IPCC ; Uncertainties ; Sea ice ; Seabirds

Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server

Type: Preprint

Format: application/pdf

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The call of the emperor penguin: legal responses to species threatened by climate change (2021)

Jenouvrier, Stephanie ; Che-Castaldo, Judy ; Wolf, Shaye ; [et al.]

Wiley

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Publication Date: 2022-05-27

Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Jenouvrier, S., Judy, C.-C., Wolf, S., Holland, M., Labrousse, S., LaRue, M., Wienecke, B., Fretwell, P., Barbraud, C., Greenwald, N., Stroeve, J., & Trathan, P. N. The call of the emperor penguin: legal responses to species threatened by climate change. Global Change Biology, 27, (2021): 5008– 5029, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15806.

Description: Species extinction risk is accelerating due to anthropogenic climate change, making it urgent to protect vulnerable species through legal frameworks in order to facilitate conservation actions that help mitigate risk. Here, we discuss fundamental concepts for assessing climate change risks to species using the example of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), currently being considered for protection under the US Endangered Species Act (ESA). This species forms colonies on Antarctic sea ice, which is projected to significantly decline due to ongoing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We project the dynamics of all known emperor penguin colonies under different GHG emission scenarios using a climate-dependent meta-population model including the effects of extreme climate events based on the observational satellite record of colonies. Assessments for listing species under the ESA require information about how species resiliency, redundancy and representation (3Rs) will be affected by threats within the foreseeable future. Our results show that if sea ice declines at the rate projected by climate models under current energy system trends and policies, the 3Rs would be dramatically reduced and almost all colonies would become quasi-extinct by 2100. We conclude that the species should be listed as threatened under the ESA.

Description: We acknowledge support of NASA (80NSSC20K1289) to SJ, MH, and of NSF—OPP (1744794) to SJ, ML.

Keywords: climate risk assessments ; Endangered Species Act ; foreseeable future ; population projections ; resiliency, redundancy and representation (3Rs) ; sea ice projections ; species distribution ; treatment of scientific uncertainty