ALBERT

All Library Books, journals and Electronic Records Telegrafenberg

feed icon rss

Your email was sent successfully. Check your inbox.

An error occurred while sending the email. Please try again.

Proceed reservation?

Export
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2019-07-20
    Description: Seasonal forecasts made by coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) are increasingly able to provide skillful forecasts of climate anomalies. At some centers, the capabilities of these models are being expanded to represent carbon-climate feedbacks including ocean biogeochemistry (OB), terrestrial biosphere (TB) interactions, and fires. These advances raise the question of whether such models can support skillful forecasts of carbon fluxes.Here, we examine whether land and ocean carbon flux anomalies associated with the 2015-16 El Nino could have been predicted months in advance. This El Nino was noteworthy for the magnitude of the ocean temperature perturbation, the skill with which this perturbation was predicted, and the extensive satellite observations that can be used to track its impact. We explore this topic using NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model, which routinely produces an ensemble of seasonal climate forecasts, and a suite of offline dynamical and statistical models that estimate carbon flux processes. Using GEOS forecast fields from 2015-16 to force flux model hindcasts shows that these models are able to reproduce significant features observed by satellites. Specifically, OB hindcasts are able to predict anomalies in chlorophyll distributions with lead times of 3-4 months. The ability of TB hindcasts to reproduce NDVI anomalies is driven by the skill of the climate forecast, which is greatest at short lead times over tropical landmasses. Statistical fire forecasts driven by ocean climate indices are able to predict burned area in the tropics with lead times of 3-12 months. We also integrate the ocean and land hindcast fluxes into the GEOS GCM to examine the magnitude of the atmospheric carbon dioxide anomaly and compare with satellite and ground-based observations.While seasonal forecasting remains an active area of research, these results demonstrate that forecasts of carbon flux processes can support a variety of applications, potentially allowing scientists to understand carbon-climate feedbacks as they happen and to capitalize on more flexible satellite technologies that allow areas of interest to be targeted with lead times of weeks to months. We also provide a first glimpse at the spring 2019 carbon forecast using the GEOS-based forecasting system.
    Keywords: Earth Resources and Remote Sensing
    Type: B51E-1990 , GSFC-E-DAA-TN64286 , American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting; Dec 10, 2018 - Dec 14, 2018; Washington, D.C.; United States
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 2
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: The powerful El Nio event of 2015-2016 - the third most intense since the 1950s - has exerted a large impact on the Earth's natural climate system. The column-averaged CO2 dry-air mole fraction (XCO2) observations from satellites and ground based networks are analyzed together with in situ observations for the period of September 2014 to October 2016. From the differences between satellite (OCO-2) observations and simulations using an atmospheric chemistry-transport model, we estimate that, relative to the mean annual fluxes for 2014, the most recent El Nio has contributed to an excess CO2 emission from the Earth's surface (land+ocean) to the atmosphere in the range of 2.4+/-0.2 PgC (1 Pg = 10(exp 15) g) over the period of July 2015 to June 2016. The excess CO2 flux is resulted primarily from reduction in vegetation uptake due to drought, and to a lesser degree from increased biomass burning. It is about the half of the CO2 flux anomaly (range: 4.4-6.7 PgC) estimated for the 1997/1998 El Nio. The annual total sink is estimated to be 3.9+/-0.2 PgC for the assumed fossil fuel emission of 10.1 PgC. The major uncertainty in attribution arise from error in anthropogenic emission trends, satellite data and atmospheric transport.
    Keywords: Earth Resources and Remote Sensing
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN47575 , Scientific Reports (e-ISSN 2045-2322); 7; 13567
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 3
    Publication Date: 2020-01-03
    Description: No abstract available
    Keywords: Earth Resources and Remote Sensing
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN76602 , AGU 2019 Fall Meeting; Dec 09, 2019 - Dec 13, 2019; San Francisco, CA; United States
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 4
    Publication Date: 2020-01-03
    Description: No abstract available
    Keywords: Earth Resources and Remote Sensing
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN76521
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 5
    Publication Date: 2020-01-03
    Description: The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 and Orbiting Carbon Observatory-3, launched in 2015 and 2019, respectively, are intended to collect and deliver high-resolution observations of CO2 with unprecedented space and time coverage. Observations of CO2 from these remote-sensing missions (also known as XCO2, or column-based average, dry air mole fraction of CO2) are then used by the global carbon cycle community to answer a wide range of science questions, from the distribution and quantification of global and regional CO2 source-sink patterns to quantification of anthropogenic sources at urban scales. Even though we have had the OCO-2 mission flying for a few years now, the retrieval algorithms are continuously evolving and improving to deliver XCO2 retrievals with very high precision and high accuracy (or low biases). In this presentation, we will discuss a simple yet effective quantitative framework that has been developed by the OCO-2 flux team to evaluate the information content of these XCO2 retrievals as soon as they are released, i.e., with lower latency than full-scale flux inversions. This framework serves as a precursor to advanced inverse modeling frameworks and is intended to provide an early but accurate assessment of the signal present in the satellite retrievals, the robustness of that signal, and the ability of these retrievals to resolve patterns in CO2 surface fluxes that cannot be resolved by our current network of surface sites. Specific results will tackle a tiered set of questions that are being addressed using this framework: (a) what are the distribution of retrievals in the different modes of operation and how do they vary in space and time? (b) what is the information that is being given to the inverse modeling frameworks from the space-based data, information above and beyond what is provided by the in-situ data? and (c) how do these factors influence our choices for doing flux inversions with the satellite retrievals? While the primary focus of the results will be on application of this technique to mature OCO-2 retrievals, we will show early results for a couple of months of OCO-3 retrievals. For the time-period that the retrievals from the two missions overlap, we will highlight how this framework allows us to effortlessly put the information from OCO-3 and OCO-2 on an equal footing, thus enabling easy comparison between the two pioneering missions.
    Keywords: Earth Resources and Remote Sensing
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN76547 , AGU Fall Meeting; Dec 09, 2019 - Dec 13, 2019; San Francisco, CA; United States
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 6
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: With the adoption of the Paris climate accord, efforts to monitor and understand both anthropogenic and natural carbon sources and sinks are increasing across the world. Given their low latency and global coverage, satellite observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are poised to make important contributions to this field. The combination of satellite data and high resolution global models can be used to monitor changes in carbon fluxes and to evaluate the consistency of nationally reported emissions estimates in support of multiple stakeholder communities. However, a consistent challenge to such work has been the high latency of surface carbon flux estimates, which are often not available for a year or more. This presentation describes the construction of surface carbon flux estimates meant to improve the near real time simulation of atmospheric CO2 with NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model. The surface flux estimates begin with a collection of bottom-up fluxes which incorporate satellite measurements in their construction, e.g. vegetation indices in the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) and nighttime lights in the Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2 (ODIAC). From there, we take the additional step of using an empirical sink to calibrate terrestrial net biospheric exchange (NBE) to estimated values from atmospheric inversion systems. This approach removes a known, systematic bias in predicted atmospheric mixing ratios. Using these fluxes in a free running simulation, the model is able to reproduce in situ measurements with the same skill as when it uses gridded fluxes from a flux inversion system. Using these fluxes as a prior in an assimilation system, e.g. one incorporating retrievals of column CO2 from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2), allows the analysis to capture variability in CO2 on scales that would be missed otherwise. This approach supports NASA's capability to forecast atmospheric CO2 up to two weeks in advance by leveraging a GEOS system used to produce quasi-operational weather analyses and forecasts, providing a valuable new tool to the carbon monitoring research and applications communities.
    Keywords: Earth Resources and Remote Sensing
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN64185 , AGU 2018 Fall Meeting; Dec 10, 2018 - Dec 14, 2018; Washington, D.C.; United States
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 7
    Publication Date: 2019-11-19
    Description: The GEOS-Carb project seeks to make high quality, data-driven products that support NASA's Carbon Monitoring System Program. These include bottom-up land and ocean flux estimates along with fossil fuel emissions, all informed by satellite data and the MERRA-2 reanalysis. These flux data support atmospheric carbon products that include both simulations and data assimilation products. We show examples of this work and discuss applications to future mission planning.
    Keywords: Earth Resources and Remote Sensing
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN75446 , NASA Carbon Monitoring System Science Team Meeting & Applications Workshop; Nov 12, 2019 - Nov 14, 2019; La Jolla, CA; United States
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
Close ⊗
This website uses cookies and the analysis tool Matomo. More information can be found here...