ALBERT

Description: Explaining the observed ozone trends discussed in an earlier update and predicting future trends requires an understanding of the stratospheric processes that affect ozone. Stratospheric processes occur on both large and small spatial scales and over both long and short periods of time. Because these diverse processes interact with each other, only in rare cases can individual processes be studied by direct observation. Generally the cause and effect relationships for ozone changes were established by comparisons between observations and model simulations. Increasingly, these comparisons rely on the developing, observed relationships among trace gases and dynamical quantities to initialize and constrain the simulations. The goal of this discussion of stratospheric processes is to describe the causes for the observed ozone trends as they are currently understood. At present, we understand with considerable confidence the stratospheric processes responsible for the Antarctic ozone hole but are only beginning to understand the causes of the ozone trends at middle latitudes. Even though the causes of the ozone trends at middle latitudes were not clearly determined, it is likely that they, just as those over Antarctica, involved chlorine and bromine chemistry that was enhanced by heterogeneous processes. This discussion generally presents only an update of the observations that have occurred for stratospheric processes since the last assessment (World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 1990), and is not a complete review of all the new information about stratospheric processes. It begins with an update of the previous assessment of polar stratospheres (WMO, 1990), followed by a discussion on the possible causes for the ozone trends at middle latitudes and on the effects of bromine and of volcanoes.

Description: This paper presents time-dependent simulations of the response of the stratosphere to the injection into the atmosphere of massive amounts of sulfur during the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo (The Philippines) in June 1991. The study is based on a coupled two-dimensional chemical-dynamical-radiative model to which a microphysical model for sulfate aerosol formation and fate has been added. The study suggests that, during the first year (July 1991 to June 1992) following the volcanic eruption, the observed changes in the ozone amount integrated between 65 deg S and 65 deg N were caused primarily by changes in the meridional circulation (associated with heating by the volcanic cloud in the tropics) and in the photolysis rate of molecules such as ozone (associated with backscattering of light by the cloud). During the second year after the eruption, as the aerosol was dispersed at all latitudes and, in particular, reached the polar region, the largest contribution to ozone reduction resulted from the heterogeneous chemical conversion of N2O5 and ClONO2 on the surface of the aerosol particles. The conversion of the latter compound, and hence the magnitude of the calculated ozone depletion, is highly dependent on the temperature in the lower stratosphere. Despite the fact that the surface area provided by aerosol particles decreased during the second year following the eruption, the calculated ozone depletion remained significant because the conversion of N2O5 is insensitive to the aerosol surface area density for values larger than 1-10 sq microns/cu cm (depending on latitude). The predicted reduction in ozone at 20 km in March during the third year (July 1993 to June 1994) of the model integration is smaller by a factor of 2 than it was during the second year.