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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2016-05-05
    Description: We propose a procedure for uncertainty quantification in Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), with a special emphasis on the uncertainty related to statistical modelling of the earthquake source in Seismic PTHA (SPTHA), and on the separate treatment of subduction and crustal earthquakes (treated as background seismicity). An event tree approach and ensemble modelling are used in spite of more classical approaches, such as the hazard integral and the logic tree. This procedure consists of four steps: (1) exploration of aleatory uncertainty through an event tree, with alternative implementations for exploring epistemic uncertainty; (2) numerical computation of tsunami generation and propagation up to a given offshore isobath; (3) (optional) site-specific quantification of inundation; (4) simultaneous quantification of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty through ensemble modelling. The proposed procedure is general and independent of the kind of tsunami source considered; however, we implement step 1, the event tree, specifically for SPTHA, focusing on seismic source uncertainty. To exemplify the procedure, we develop a case study considering seismic sources in the Ionian Sea (central-eastern Mediterranean Sea), using the coasts of Southern Italy as a target zone. The results show that an efficient and complete quantification of all the uncertainties is feasible even when treating a large number of potential sources and a large set of alternative model formulations. We also find that (i) treating separately subduction and background (crustal) earthquakes allows for optimal use of available information and for avoiding significant biases; (ii) both subduction interface and crustal faults contribute to the SPTHA, with different proportions that depend on source-target position and tsunami intensity; (iii) the proposed framework allows sensitivity and deaggregation analyses, demonstrating the applicability of the method for operational assessments.
    Keywords: Seismology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In the last two decades, south-central Europe and the Eastern Alps have been widely explored by many seismic refrac- tion experiments (e.g., CELEBRATION 2000, ALP 2002, SUDETES 2003). Although quite detailed images are available along linear profiles, a comprehensive, three-dimensional crustal model of the region is still missing. This limitation makes this region a weak spot in continental-wide comprehensive represen- tations of crustal structure. To improve on this situation, we select and collect 37 published active-source seismic lines in this region. After geo-referencing each line, we sample them along vertical profiles—every 50 km or less along the line—and derive P-wave velocities in a stack of homogeneous layers (separated by discon- tinuities: depth of crystalline basement, top of lower crust, and Moho). We finally merge the information using geostatistical methods, and infer S-wave velocity and density using empirical scaling relations. We present here the resulting crustal model for a region encompassing the Eastern Alps, Dinarides, Pannonian basin, Western Carpathians and Bohemian Massif, covering the region within 45º-51ºN and 11º-22ºE with a resolution of 0.2ºx0.2º. We are also able to extend and update the map of Moho depth in a wider region within 35^-51^N and 12^-45^E; gathering Moho values from the collected seismic lines, other published dataset and using the European plate reference EPcrust as a background. All the digitized profiles and the resulting model are available online.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1575-1588
    Description: 3.3. Geodinamica e struttura dell'interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Crustal model ; crust ; Moho depth ; Europe ; Eastern Alps ; kriging ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.07. Tomography and anisotropy
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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