ISSN:
1432-1416
Keywords:
Age structure
;
Proportionate mixing
;
Cross-immunity
;
Influenza
;
Infectious diseases
Source:
Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
Topics:
Biology
,
Mathematics
Notes:
Abstract Infection by one strain of influenza type A provides some protection (cross-immunity) against infection by a related strain. It is important to determine how this influences the observed co-circulation of comparatively minor variants of the H1N1 and H3N2 subtypes. To this end, we formulate discrete and continuous time models with two viral strains, cross-immunity, age structure, and infectious disease dynamics. Simulation and analysis of models with cross-immunity indicate that sustained oscillations cannot be maintained by age-specific infection activity level rates when the mortality rate is constant; but are possible if mortalities are age-specific, even if activity levels are independent of age. Sustained oscillations do not seem possible for a single-strain model, even in the presence of age-specific mortalities; and thus it is suggested that the interplay between cross-immunity and age-specific mortalities may underlie observed oscillations.
Type of Medium:
Electronic Resource
URL:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00275810
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