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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Sensitivity analysis estimates the relative contribution of the uncertainty in input values to the uncertainty of model outputs. Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) and Standardized Rank Regression Coefficient (SRRC) are methods of conducting sensitivity analysis on nonlinear simulation models like the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The PRCC method estimates the sensitivity using partial correlation of the ranks of the generated input values to each generated output value. The partial part is so named because adjustments are made for the linear effects of all the other input values in the calculation of correlation between a particular input and each output. In SRRC, standardized regression-based coefficients measure the sensitivity of each input, adjusted for all the other inputs, on each output. Because the relative ranking of each of the inputs and outputs is used, as opposed to the values themselves, both methods accommodate the nonlinear relationship of the underlying model. As part of the IMM v4.0 validation study, simulations are available that predict 33 person-missions on ISS and 111 person-missions on STS. These simulated data predictions feed the sensitivity analysis procedures. The inputs to the sensitivity procedures include the number occurrences of each of the one hundred IMM medical conditions generated over the simulations and the associated IMM outputs: total quality time lost (QTL), number of evacuations (EVAC), and number of loss of crew lives (LOCL). The IMM team will report the results of using PRCC and SRRC on IMM v4.0 predictions of the ISS and STS missions created as part of the external validation study. Tornado plots will assist in the visualization of the condition-related input sensitivities to each of the main outcomes. The outcomes of this sensitivity analysis will drive review focus by identifying conditions where changes in uncertainty could drive changes in overall model output uncertainty. These efforts are an integral part of the overall verification, validation, and credibility review of IMM v4.0.
    Keywords: Aerospace Medicine
    Type: GRC-E-DAA-TN29568 , 2016 NASA Human Research Program Investigators'' Workshop (HRP IWS 2016); Feb 08, 2016 - Feb 11, 2016; Galveston, TX; United States
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Changes in urine chemistry, during and post-flight, potentially alter the likelihood of renal stones in astronauts. Although much is known about the effects of space flight on urine chemistry, no inflight incidences of renal stones in US astronauts exist and the question How much does this risk change with space flight? remains difficult to accurately quantify. Previous work by our group has illustrated the application of multi-factor deterministic and probabilistic modeling to assess the change in predicted likelihood of renal stone. Utilizing 1517 astronaut urine chemistries to inform the renal stone occurrence rate forecasting model, we performed a sensitivity analysis on urine chemistry components for their influence on predictions of renal stone size and rate of renal stone occurrence.
    Keywords: Aerospace Medicine
    Type: GRC-E-DAA-TN51722 , 2018 NASA Human Research Program Investigator''s Workshop (HRP IWS 2018); Jan 22, 2018 - Jan 25, 2018; Galveston, TX; United States
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: A wide range of computational models and analyses have been applied to spaceflight risk assessment and countermeasure development. The benefits of using computational modeling to enhance Human Research Program (HRP) goals include the ability to mathematically represent physiological systems, integrate multiple, discrete experimental measures, span multiple temporal and spatial scales, determine important factors within the system and provide estimates of unmeasurable quantities. In the area of application, computational models provide a means of developing simulations to test hypotheses, determining key factors of the system to aid experimental design and bridging gaps in sparse data by mathematically simulating large populations. Specifically, computational models and their supporting analysis tools have the proven potential to integrate analyses of risk factors to enhance mission planning and preparation capabilities and to inform spacecraft design and countermeasure development. Appropriately applied, computational models may allow intelligent, unbiased physiological parameter assessment to enable hypothesis testing and model based design of experiments. HRP recently formed the Computational Modeling Project (CMP), managed out of Glenn Research Center, as a cross-cutting activity aimed at leveraging the growing power and acceptance of computational modeling in informing clinical, physiological, and biological studies. This presentation will provide an overview of the challenges and opportunities in implementing various forms of computational models in support of the HRPs path to risk reduction.
    Keywords: Computer Programming and Software; Aerospace Medicine
    Type: GRC-E-DAA-TN51675 , 2018 NASA Human Research Program Investigators'' Workshop (HRP IWS 2018); Jan 22, 2018 - Jan 25, 2018; Galveston, TX; United States
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: A key component in the development of NASA Human Research Programs (HRP) next generation risk model, the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) intends to deliver a means to quantify how HRP products impact astronaut medical and health risks. MEDPRAT is extensible to the majority of exploration missions. Similar to other risk models, the tool utilizes the available space and terrestrial medical data. MEDPRAT is designed to be extended with additional human health research information, medical equipment, space and terrestrial standards and practices to assess space flight medical risk in a manner consistent with other risk measures used in spacecraft and mission design. This tool provides risk-based medical system design information necessary to evaluate new technologies, procedures, research insights and mission plans.
    Keywords: Aerospace Medicine
    Type: GRC-E-DAA-TN51673 , 2018 NASA Human Research Program Investigators'' Workshop (HRP IWS 2018); Jan 22, 2018 - Jan 25, 2018; Galveston, TX; United States
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: This study illustrates the potential gains obtained by leveraging computational modeling to improve experimental efficiency in NASA research and counter measures studies through implementation of Model-Based Design of Experiments (MBDOE). MBDOE is a method to utilize analogous computational models to improve understanding of complex, multifactor, experimental responses and to determine experimental conditions and optimize information in the fewest number of experimental tests.
    Keywords: Aerospace Medicine
    Type: GRC-E-DAA-TN51424 , 2018 NASA Human Research Program Investigators'' Workshop (HRP IWS 2018); Jan 22, 2018 - Jan 25, 2018; Galveston, TX; United States
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2019-08-13
    Description: ExMC is creating an ecosystem of tools to enable well-informed medical system trade studies. The suite of tools address important system implementation aspects of the space medical capabilities trade space and are being built using knowledge from the medical community regarding the unique aspects of space flight. Two integrating models, a systems engineering model and a medical risk analysis model, tie the tools together to produce an integrated assessment of the medical system and its ability to achieve medical system target requirements. This presentation will provide an overview of the various tools that are a part of the tool ecosystem. Initially, the presentation's focus will address the tools that supply the foundational information to the ecosystem. Specifically, the talk will describe how information that describes how medicine will be practiced is captured and categorized for efficient utilization in the tool suite. For example, the talk will include capturing what conditions will be planned for in-mission treatment, planned medical activities (e.g., periodic physical exam), required medical capabilities (e.g., provide imaging), and options to implement the capabilities (e.g., an ultrasound device). Database storage and configuration management will also be discussed. The presentation will include an overview of how these information tools will be tied to parameters in a Systems Modeling Language (SysML) model, allowing traceability to system behavioral, structural, and requirements content. The discussion will also describe an HRP-led enhanced risk assessment model developed to provide quantitative insight into each capability's contribution to mission success. Key outputs from these various tools, to be shared with the space medical and exploration mission development communities, will be assessments of medical system implementation option satisfaction of requirements and per-capability contributions toward achieving requirements.
    Keywords: Aerospace Medicine
    Type: JSC-CN-40593 , NASA Human Research Program Investigators'' Workshop (HRP IWS) 2018; Jan 22, 2018 - Jan 25, 2018; Galveston, TX; United States
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2019-08-13
    Description: Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project represents one aspect of NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) to quantitatively assess medical risks to astronauts for existing operational missions as well as missions associated with future exploration and commercial space flight ventures. The IMM takes a probabilistic approach to assessing the likelihood and specific outcomes of one hundred medical conditions within the envelope of accepted space flight standards of care over a selectable range of mission capabilities. A specially developed Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) maintains evidence-based, organizational knowledge across a variety of data sources. Since becoming operational in 2011, version 3.0 of the IMM, the supporting iMED, and the expertise of the IMM project team have contributed to a wide range of decision and informational processes for the space medical and human research community. This presentation provides an overview of the IMM conceptual architecture and range of application through examples of actual space flight community questions posed to the IMM project. Methods: Figure 1 [see document] illustrates the IMM modeling system and scenario process. As illustrated, the IMM computational architecture is based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment techniques. Nineteen assumptions and limitations define the IMM application domain. Scenario definitions include crew medical attributes and mission specific details. The IMM forecasts probabilities of loss of crew life (LOCL), evacuation (EVAC), quality time lost during the mission, number of medical resources utilized and the number and type of medical events by combining scenario information with in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical information stored in the iMED. In addition, the metrics provide the integrated information necessary to estimate optimized in-flight medical kit contents under constraints of mass and volume or acceptable level of mission risk. Results and Conclusions: Historically, IMM simulations support Science and Technology planning, Exploration mission planning, and ISS program operations by supplying simulation support, iMED data information, and subject matter expertise to Crew Health and Safety and the HRP. Upcoming release of IMM version 4.0 seeks to provide enhanced functionality to increase the quality of risk decisions made using the IMM through a more accurate representation of the real world system.
    Keywords: Aerospace Medicine
    Type: JSC-CN-32262 , NASA Human Research Program Investigators'' Workshop (HRP IWS 2015); Jan 13, 2015 - Jan 15, 2015; Galveston, TX; United States
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2019-08-13
    Description: Renal stone disease is not only a concern on earth but can conceivably pose a serious risk to the astronauts health and safety in Space. In this work, two different deterministic models based on a Population Balance Equation (PBE) analysis of renal stone formation are developed to assess the risks of critical renal stone incidence for astronauts during space travel. In the first model, the nephron is treated as a continuous mixed suspension mixed product removal crystallizer and the PBE for the nucleating, growing and agglomerating renal calculi is coupled to speciation calculations performed by JESS. Predictions of stone size distributions in the kidney using this model indicate that the astronaut in microgravity is at noticeably greater but still subcritical risk and recommend administration of citrate and augmented hydration as effective means of minimizing and containing this risk. In the second model, the PBE analysis is coupled to a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model for flow of urine and transport of Calcium and Oxalate in the nephron to predict the impact of gravity on the stone size distributions. Results presented for realistic 3D tubule and collecting duct geometries, clearly indicate that agglomeration is the primary mode of size enhancement in both 1g and microgravity. 3D numerical simulations seem to further indicate that there will be an increased number of smaller stones developed in microgravity that will likely pass through the nephron in the absence of wall adhesion. However, upon reentry to a 1g (Earth) or 38g (Mars) partial gravitational fields, the renal calculi can lag behind the urinary flow in tubules that are adversely oriented with respect to the gravitational field and grow agglomerate to large sizes that are sedimented near the wall with increased propensity for wall adhesion, plaque formation, and risk to the astronauts.
    Keywords: Aerospace Medicine
    Type: GRC-E-DAA-TN29710 , 2016 HRP Investigators'' Workshop; Feb 08, 2016 - Feb 11, 2016; Houston, TX; United States
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2019-08-13
    Description: A recognized side effect of prolonged microgravity exposure is visual impairment and intracranial pressure (VIIP) syndrome. The medical understanding of this phenomenon is at present preliminary, although it is hypothesized that the headward shift of bodily fluids in microgravity may be a contributor. Computational models can be used to provide insight into the origins of VIIP. In order to further investigate this phenomenon, NASAs Digital Astronaut Project (DAP) is developing an integrated computational model of the human body which is divided into the eye, the cerebrovascular system, and the cardiovascular system. This presentation will focus on the development and testing of the computational model of an integrated model of the cardiovascular system (CVS) and central nervous system (CNS) that simulates the behavior of pressures, volumes, and flows within these two physiological systems.
    Keywords: Aerospace Medicine
    Type: GRC-E-DAA-TN20360 , 2015 Human Research Program Investigators'' Workshop; Jan 13, 2015 - Jan 15, 2015; Galveston, TX; United States
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2019-08-13
    Description: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project represents one aspect of NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) to quantitatively assess medical risks to astronauts for existing operational missions as well as missions associated with future exploration and commercial space flight ventures. The IMM takes a probabilistic approach to assessing the likelihood and specific outcomes of one hundred medical conditions within the envelope of accepted space flight standards of care over a selectable range of mission capabilities. A specially developed Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) maintains evidence-based, organizational knowledge across a variety of data sources. Since becoming operational in 2011, version 3.0 of the IMM, the supporting iMED, and the expertise of the IMM project team have contributed to a wide range of decision and informational processes for the space medical and human research community. This presentation provides an overview of the IMM conceptual architecture and range of application through examples of actual space flight community questions posed to the IMM project.
    Keywords: Aerospace Medicine
    Type: GRC-E-DAA-TN20320 , NASA HRP Investigator''s Workshop; Jan 13, 2015 - Jan 15, 2015; Galveston, TX; United States
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