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  • 1
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    On the maximum observed wind speed in a randomly sampled hurricane (2010)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 23 (2010): 1262-1265, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2803.1.
    Description: There is considerable interest in detecting a long-term trend in hurricane intensity possibly related to large-scale ocean warming. This effort is complicated by the paucity of wind speed measurements for hurricanes occurring in the early part of the observational record. Here, results are presented regarding the maximum observed wind speed in a sparsely randomly sampled hurricane based on a model of the evolution of wind speed over the lifetime of a hurricane.
    Description: Support for this work was provided by NOAA Grant NA17RJ1223.
    Keywords: Hurricanes ; Wind ; Tropical cyclones ; Wind gusts ; Statistical techniques ; Climate change
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
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    Testing for a shift in a species boundary (2013)
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: The files included are computer code for achieving the test described in the associated manuscript. The code is written in MATLAB and requires the optimization toolbox.
    Description: One predicted impact of climate change is a poleward shift in the boundaries of species ranges. Existing methods for identifying such a boundary shift based on changes in the observed pattern of occupancy within a grid of cells are sensitive to changes in the overall rate of sightings and their latitudinal distribution that are unconnected to a boundary shift. A formal test for a boundary shift is described that allows for such changes. The test is applied to detect northward shifts in the northern boundary of the Essex skipper butterfly and the European goldfinch in Great Britain. A shift is detected in the latter case but not in the former. Results from a simulation study are presented showing that the test performs well.
    Keywords: Climate change ; Extreme value statistics ; Occupancy ; Species range ; Bootstrap ; Endpoint estimation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Dataset
    Format: application/zip
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  • 3
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    On the attribution of a single event to climate change (2014)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 27 (2014): 8297–8301, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00399.1.
    Description: There is growing interest in assessing the role of climate change in observed extreme weather events. Recent work in this area has focused on estimating a measure called attributable risk. A statistical formulation of this problem is described and used to construct a confidence interval for attributable risk. The resulting confidence is shown to be surprisingly wide even in the case where the event of interest is unprecedented in the historical record.
    Description: GH acknowledges funding from the Federal Ministry for Education and Research. MA acknowledges partial support from the Giannini Foundation.
    Description: 2015-05-15
    Keywords: Climate change ; Statistics
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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