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  • Coupled models  (2)
  • Atlantic meridional overturning circulation  (1)
  • 1
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    Multicentury changes in ocean and land contributions to the climate-carbon feedback (2015)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 29 (2015): 744–759, doi:10.1002/2014GB005079.
    Description: Improved constraints on carbon cycle responses to climate change are needed to inform mitigation policy, yet our understanding of how these responses may evolve after 2100 remains highly uncertain. Using the Community Earth System Model (v1.0), we quantified climate-carbon feedbacks from 1850 to 2300 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and its extension. In three simulations, land and ocean biogeochemical processes experienced the same trajectory of increasing atmospheric CO2. Each simulation had a different degree of radiative coupling for CO2 and other greenhouse gases and aerosols, enabling diagnosis of feedbacks. In a fully coupled simulation, global mean surface air temperature increased by 9.3 K from 1850 to 2300, with 4.4 K of this warming occurring after 2100. Excluding CO2, warming from other greenhouse gases and aerosols was 1.6 K by 2300, near a 2 K target needed to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Ocean contributions to the climate-carbon feedback increased considerably over time and exceeded contributions from land after 2100. The sensitivity of ocean carbon to climate change was found to be proportional to changes in ocean heat content, as a consequence of this heat modifying transport pathways for anthropogenic CO2 inflow and solubility of dissolved inorganic carbon. By 2300, climate change reduced cumulative ocean uptake by 330 Pg C, from 1410 Pg C to 1080 Pg C. Land fluxes similarly diverged over time, with climate change reducing stocks by 232 Pg C. Regional influence of climate change on carbon stocks was largest in the North Atlantic Ocean and tropical forests of South America. Our analysis suggests that after 2100, oceans may become as important as terrestrial ecosystems in regulating the magnitude of the climate-carbon feedback.
    Description: We are grateful for support from the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science and the National Science Foundation (NSF). J.T.R. and F.H. received support from the Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program in the Climate and Environmental Sciences Division of the Biological and Environmental Research (BER) Program in the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science. J.T.R., K.L., E.M., W.F., J.K.M., S.C.D., and N.N.M. received funding from the NSF project “Collaborative Research: Improved Regional and Decadal Predictions of the Carbon Cycle“ (AGS-1048827, AGS-1021776, and AGS-1048890). The Community Earth System Modeling project receives support from both NSF and BER.
    Description: 2015-12-02
    Keywords: Atlantic meridional overturning circulation ; Net primary production ; Stratification ; Ecosystems ; Carbon-concentration feedback
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 2
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    Twentieth-century oceanic carbon uptake and storage in CESM1(BGC) (2013)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2013]. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 26 (2013): 6775–6800, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00184.1.
    Description: Ocean carbon uptake and storage simulated by the Community Earth System Model, version 1–Biogeochemistry [CESM1(BGC)], is described and compared to observations. Fully coupled and ocean-ice configurations are examined; both capture many aspects of the spatial structure and seasonality of surface carbon fields. Nearly ubiquitous negative biases in surface alkalinity result from the prescribed carbonate dissolution profile. The modeled sea–air CO2 fluxes match observationally based estimates over much of the ocean; significant deviations appear in the Southern Ocean. Surface ocean pCO2 is biased high in the subantarctic and low in the sea ice zone. Formation of the water masses dominating anthropogenic CO2 (Cant) uptake in the Southern Hemisphere is weak in the model, leading to significant negative biases in Cant and chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) storage at intermediate depths. Column inventories of Cant appear too high, by contrast, in the North Atlantic. In spite of the positive bias, this marks an improvement over prior versions of the model, which underestimated North Atlantic uptake. The change in behavior is attributable to a new parameterization of density-driven overflows. CESM1(BGC) provides a relatively robust representation of the ocean–carbon cycle response to climate variability. Statistical metrics of modeled interannual variability in sea–air CO2 fluxes compare reasonably well to observationally based estimates. The carbon cycle response to key modes of climate variability is basically similar in the coupled and forced ocean-ice models; however, the two differ in regional detail and in the strength of teleconnections.
    Description: The CESM project is supported by the National Science Foundation and the Office of Science (BER) of the U.S. Department of Energy. SCD acknowledges support of Collaborative Research: Improved Regional and Decadal Predictions of the Carbon Cycle (NSFAGS- 1048827).
    Description: 2014-03-15
    Keywords: Carbon cycle ; Carbon dioxide ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Coupled models ; Oceanic chemistry
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 3
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    Preindustrial-control and twentieth-century carbon cycle experiments with the Earth System Model CESM1(BGC) (2015)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 27 (2014): 8981–9005, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00565.1.
    Description: Version 1 of the Community Earth System Model, in the configuration where its full carbon cycle is enabled, is introduced and documented. In this configuration, the terrestrial biogeochemical model, which includes carbon–nitrogen dynamics and is present in earlier model versions, is coupled to an ocean biogeochemical model and atmospheric CO2 tracers. The authors provide a description of the model, detail how preindustrial-control and twentieth-century experiments were initialized and forced, and examine the behavior of the carbon cycle in those experiments. They examine how sea- and land-to-air CO2 fluxes contribute to the increase of atmospheric CO2 in the twentieth century, analyze how atmospheric CO2 and its surface fluxes vary on interannual time scales, including how they respond to ENSO, and describe the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 and its surface fluxes. While the model broadly reproduces observed aspects of the carbon cycle, there are several notable biases, including having too large of an increase in atmospheric CO2 over the twentieth century and too small of a seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 in the Northern Hemisphere. The biases are related to a weak response of the carbon cycle to climatic variations on interannual and seasonal time scales and to twentieth-century anthropogenic forcings, including rising CO2, land-use change, and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen.
    Description: The CESM project is supported by the National Science Foundation and the Office of Science (BER) of the U.S. Department of Energy. Computing resources were provided by the Climate Simulation Laboratory at NCAR’s Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL), sponsored by the National Science Foundation and other agencies. This research was enabled by CISL compute and storage resources. SCD acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation (NSF AGS-1048827). This research is supported in part by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research. Oak Ridge National Laboratory is managed by UT-BATTELLE for DOE under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725.
    Description: 2015-06-15
    Keywords: Carbon cycle ; Climate models ; Coupled models ; Model evaluation/performance
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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