ALBERT

Description: From a sample of 7 MSFC vector magnetograms,of active regions and 17 Yohkoh SXT soft X-ray images of these active regions, we have found that the total x-ray brightness of an entire active region is correlated with the total length of neutral lines on which the magnetic field is both strong (less than 250 G) and strongly sheared (shear angle greater than 75 deg) in the same active region. This correlation, if not fortuitous, is additional evidence of the importance of strong-shear strong-field neutral lines to strong heating in active regions.

Description: From a sample of 17 vector magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions, we have recently found (1) that a measure of the overall nonpotentiality (the overall twist and shear in the magnetic field) of an active region is given by the strong-shear length L(sub SS), the length of the portion of the main neutral line on which the observed transverse fields is strong (greater than 150 G) and strongly sheared (shear angle greater than 45 deg), and (2) that L(sub SS) is well correlated with the CME productivity of the active regions during the +/- 2-day time window centered on the day of the magnetogram. In the present paper, from the same sample of 17 vector magnetograms, we show that there is a viable proxy for L(sub SS) that can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram. This proxy is the strong-gradient length L(sub SG), the length of the portion of the main neutral line on which the potential transverse field is strong (greater than 150 G) and the gradient of the line-of-sight field is sufficiently steep (greater than or approximately 50 G/Mm). In our sample of active regions, L(sub SG) is statistically significantly correlated with L(sub SS) (correlation confidence level greater than 95%), and L(sub SG) is as strongly correlated with active-region CME productivity as is L(sub SS)(correlation confidence level approximately 99.7%). Because L(sub SG) can be measured from line-of-sight magnetograms obtained from conventional magnetographs, such as the magnetograph mode of the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), it is a dependable substitute for L(sub SS) for use in operational CME forecasting. In addition, via measurement of L(sub SG), the years-long, nearly continuous sequence of 1.5-hour-cadence full-disk line-of-sight magnetograms from MDI can be used to track the growth and decay of the large-scale nonpotentiality in active regions and to examine the role of this evolution in active-region CME productivity.

Description: We have previously shown for bipolar active regions that measures of active-region nonpotentiality from vector magnetograms are correlated with active-region CME productivity. We have now obtained a measure from line-of-sight magnetograms that is well correlated both with our measures of active-region nonpotentiality from vector magnetograms and with active-region CME productivity. The measure is the length of strong-gradient main neutral line (L(sub G)). This is the length of the bipolar region's main neutral line on which the potential transverse field is greater than 150G, and the gradient in the line-of-sight field is greater than 50G/Mm. From the sample of 17 MSFC magnetograms of 12 basically bipolar active regions used in our previous paper, we find that L(sub G) is strongly correlated with one of our vector-magnetogram measures of nonpotentiality, the length of strong-gradient main neutral line L(sub SS) (99.7%). We also find that L(sub G) is as strongly correlated with CME productivity (99.7%) as is L(sub SS). Being obtainable from line-of-sight magnetograms, L(sub G) makes the much larger data set of line-of-sight magnetograms (i.e. from SOHO/MDI and Kitt Peak) available for CME prediction study. This is especially important for evolutionary studies, with SOHO/MDI having no daylight, cloudy weather, or atmospheric seeing problems. This work was supported by funding from NSF's division of Atmospheric Sciences (Space Weather and Shine Programs) and by NASA's office of Space Science (Living with a Star program Solar and Heliospheric Physics Supporting Research and Technology program).

Description: In a negative-polarity coronal hole, magnetic flux emergence, seen by the Solar Dynamics Observatory's {SDO) Helioseismic Magnetic lmager (HMI), begins at approximately 19:00 UT on March 3, 2016. The emerged magnetic field produced sunspots, which NOAA numbered 12514 two days later. The emerging magnetic field is largely bipolar with the opposite-polarity fluxes spreading apart overall, but there is simultaneously some convergence and cancellation of opposite-polarity flux at the polarity inversion line (PIL) inside the emerging bipole. In the first fifteen hours after emergence onset, three obvious eruptions occur, observed in the coronal EUV images from SDO's Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA). The first two erupt from separate segments of the external PIL between the emerging positve-polarity flux and the extant surrounding negative-polarity flux, with the exploding magnetic field being prepared and triggered by flux cancellation at the external PIL. The emerging bipole shows obvious overall left-handed shear and/or twist in its magnetic field. The focus of th is poster is the third and largest eruption, which comes from inside the emerging bipole and blows it open to produce a CME observed by SOHO/LASCO. That eruption is preceded by flux cancellation at the emerging bipole's interior PIL, cancellation that plausibly builds a sheared and twisted flux rope above the interior PIL and finally triggers the blow-out eruption of the flux rope via photospheric-convectiondriven slow tether-cutting reconnection of the legs of the sheared core field, low above the interior PIL, as proposed by van Ballegooijen & Martens (1989) and Moore & Roumeliotis (1992). The production of this eruption is a (perhaps rare) counterexample to solar eruptions that result from external collisional shearing between opposite polarities from two distinct emerging and/or emerged bipoles (Chintzoglou et al. 2019).

Description: We report results of an expanded evaluation of whole-active-region magnetic measures as predictors of active-region coronal mass ejection (CME) productivity. Previously, in a sample of 17 vector magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions observed by the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) vector magnetograph, from each magnetogram we extracted a measure of the size of the active region (the active region s total magnetic flux a) and four measures of the nonpotentiality of the active region: the strong-shear length L(sub SS), the strong-gradient length L(sub SG), the net vertical electric current I(sub N), and the net-current magnetic twist parameter alpha (sub IN). This sample size allowed us to show that each of the four nonpotentiality measures was statistically significantly correlated with active-region CME productivity in time windows of a few days centered on the day of the magnetogram. We have now added a fifth measure of active-region nonpotentiality (the best-constant-alpha magnetic twist parameter (alpha sub BC)), and have expanded the sample to 36 MSFC vector magnetograms of 31 bipolar active regions. This larger sample allows us to demonstrate statistically significant correlations of each of the five nonpotentiality measures with future CME productivity, in time windows of a few days starting from the day of the magnetogram. The two magnetic twist parameters (alpha (sub 1N) and alpha (sub BC)) are normalized measures of an active region s nonpotentially in that they do not depend directly on the size of the active region, while the other three nonpotentiality measures (L(sub SS), L(sub SG), and I(sub N)) are non-normalized measures in that they do depend directly on active-region size. We find (1) Each of the five nonpotentiality measures is statistically significantly correlated (correlation confidence level greater than 95%) with future CME productivity and has a CME prediction success rate of approximately 80%. (2) None of the nonpotentiality measures is a significantly better CME predictor than the others. (3) The active-region phi shows some correlation with CME productivity, but well below a statistically significant level (correlation confidence level less than approximately 80%; CME prediction success rate less than approximately 65%). (4) In addition to depending on magnetic twist, CME productivity appears to have some direct dependence on active-region size (rather than only an indirect dependence through a correlation of magnetic twist with active-region size), but it will take a still larger sample of active regions (50 or more) to certify this. (5) Of the five nonpotentiality measures, L(sub SG) appears to be the best for operational CME forecasting because it is as good or better a CME predictor than the others and it alone does not require a vector magnetogram; L(sub SG) can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram such as from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO).

Description: We show that the length of strong-gradient, strong-field main neutral line, L(sub SGM), which can be measured from line-of-sight magnetograms such as from SOHO/MDI, is both a measure of active-region nonpotentiality and a useful predictor of an active region's future CME productivity. To demonstrate that L(sub SGM) is a nonpotentiality measure, we show that it is strongly correlated with a direct measure of nonpotentiality. For an appropriate choice of a threshold value, an active region s measured LsGM can be used as a predictor of whether the active region will produce a CME within a few days after the magnetogram. For our set of 36 MSFC vector magnetograms of bipolar active regions, L(sub SGM) is found to have a success rate of 80% for prediction of CME productivity in the 0-2 day window. The development of L(sub SGM) as a method of measuring nonpotentiality for forecasting large, fast CMEs from present space based assets is of value to NASA's Space Exploration Initiative (manned missions to the Moon and Mars)

Description: We have found that active regions that are likely to be CME productive can be identified from measures of their nonpotentiality from magnetograms. We have developed four different measures from vector magnetograms and another that can be obtained from a line-of-sight magnetogram. We find that all five measures are strongly correlated with CME productivity to a similar degree. Hence, all five are roughly equally good predictors of active-region CME productivity. Since the measures all have similar predictive ability, the measures that are easiest to reliably measure are the best for operational forecasting of CMEs. The two best measures are the length of strong-shear main neutral line L(sub SS) (the length of the main neutral line with the magnetic shear angle greater than 45deg and observed transverse field greater than 150G) and the length of strong-gradient main neutral line L(sub G) (the length of the main neutral line with line-of-sight magnetic field greater than 50G/Mm and potential transverse field greater than 150G). As L(sub G) is measured from line-of-sight magnetograms it opens the larger data base of SOHO/MDI and Kitt Peak line-of-sight magnetograms for CME prediction study. This is especially important for evolutionary studies, with SOHO/MDI having no daylight, cloudy weather, or atmospheric seeing problems.

Description: From chromospheric and coronal images and line-of-sight and vector magnetograms of magnetic regions that produce CMEs, and from chromospheric and coronal movies of the onsets of CME eruptions, it appears that the magnetic field that explodes to drive the CME is initially the strongly sheared core of a magnetic arcade encasing a polarity dividing line in the magnetic flux. Before or during the onset of the explosion, the sheared core field becomes a flux rope, often carrying chromospheric material within it. For the erupting flux rope to drive the explosion, that is, for its magnetic energy content to decrease in the explosion, the flux rope's cross-sectional area must increase faster than its length. For instance, for isotropic expansion, the area increases as the square of the length, and the magnetic energy content of the flux rope decreases as the inverse of the length. The instability that initiates the eruption of the flux rope might be an ideal MHD kink instability, or might involve runaway tether-cutting reconnection. The reconnection begins below the flux rope (internal to the arcade) when the overall field configuration of the region is effectively that of a single bipole. When the flux rope resides in a multi- bipolar configuration having a magnetic null above the flux rope, the runaway tether- cutting reconnection might begin either below the flux rope or at the null above (external to) the arcade. We present examples of observed CME onsets that illustrate the above alternatives. In each example, reconnection below the flux rope begins early in the eruption. This indicates that internal tether cutting reconnection (classic tether-cutting reconnection) is important in unleashing the CME explosion in all cases, including those in which the explosion may be triggered by MHD kinking or by external reconnection (classic breakout reconnection).