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  • Air-sea CO2 exchange  (1)
  • Climate warming  (1)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 21 (2007): , doi:10.1029/2006GB002751.
    Description: We use an inverse method to estimate the global-scale pattern of the air-sea flux of natural CO2, i.e., the component of the CO2 flux due to the natural carbon cycle that already existed in preindustrial times, on the basis of ocean interior observations of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and other tracers, from which we estimate ΔC gasex , i.e., the component of the observed DIC that is due to the gas exchange of natural CO2. We employ a suite of 10 different Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs) to quantify the error arising from uncertainties in the modeled transport required to link the interior ocean observations to the surface fluxes. The results from the contributing OGCMs are weighted using a model skill score based on a comparison of each model's simulated natural radiocarbon with observations. We find a pattern of air-sea flux of natural CO2 characterized by outgassing in the Southern Ocean between 44°S and 59°S, vigorous uptake at midlatitudes of both hemispheres, and strong outgassing in the tropics. In the Northern Hemisphere and the tropics, the inverse estimates generally agree closely with the natural CO2 flux results from forward simulations of coupled OGCM-biogeochemistry models undertaken as part of the second phase of the Ocean Carbon Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP-2). The OCMIP-2 simulations find far less air-sea exchange than the inversion south of 20°S, but more recent forward OGCM studies are in better agreement with the inverse estimates in the Southern Hemisphere. The strong source and sink pattern south of 20°S was not apparent in an earlier inversion study, because the choice of region boundaries led to a partial cancellation of the sources and sinks. We show that the inversely estimated flux pattern is clearly traceable to gradients in the observed ΔC gasex , and that it is relatively insensitive to the choice of OGCM or potential biases in ΔC gasex . Our inverse estimates imply a southward interhemispheric transport of 0.31 ± 0.02 Pg C yr−1, most of which occurs in the Atlantic. This is considerably smaller than the 1 Pg C yr−1 of Northern Hemisphere uptake that has been inferred from atmospheric CO2 observations during the 1980s and 1990s, which supports the hypothesis of a Northern Hemisphere terrestrial sink.
    Description: This research was financially supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under grant NAG5-12528. N. G. also acknowledges support by the National Science Foundation (OCE-0137274). Climate and Environmental Physics, Bern, acknowledges support by the European Union through the Integrated Project CarboOcean and the Swiss National Science Foundation.
    Keywords: Air-sea CO2 exchange ; Natural carbon cycle ; Ocean inversion
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2004. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 18 (2004): GB3003, doi:10.1029/2003GB002134.
    Description: We examine six different coupled climate model simulations to determine the ocean biological response to climate warming between the beginning of the industrial revolution and 2050. We use vertical velocity, maximum winter mixed layer depth, and sea ice cover to define six biomes. Climate warming leads to a contraction of the highly productive marginal sea ice biome by 42% in the Northern Hemisphere and 17% in the Southern Hemisphere, and leads to an expansion of the low productivity permanently stratified subtropical gyre biome by 4.0% in the Northern Hemisphere and 9.4% in the Southern Hemisphere. In between these, the subpolar gyre biome expands by 16% in the Northern Hemisphere and 7% in the Southern Hemisphere, and the seasonally stratified subtropical gyre contracts by 11% in both hemispheres. The low-latitude (mostly coastal) upwelling biome area changes only modestly. Vertical stratification increases, which would be expected to decrease nutrient supply everywhere, but increase the growing season length in high latitudes. We use satellite ocean color and climatological observations to develop an empirical model for predicting chlorophyll from the physical properties of the global warming simulations. Four features stand out in the response to global warming: (1) a drop in chlorophyll in the North Pacific due primarily to retreat of the marginal sea ice biome, (2) a tendency toward an increase in chlorophyll in the North Atlantic due to a complex combination of factors, (3) an increase in chlorophyll in the Southern Ocean due primarily to the retreat of and changes at the northern boundary of the marginal sea ice zone, and (4) a tendency toward a decrease in chlorophyll adjacent to the Antarctic continent due primarily to freshening within the marginal sea ice zone. We use three different primary production algorithms to estimate the response of primary production to climate warming based on our estimated chlorophyll concentrations. The three algorithms give a global increase in primary production of 0.7% at the low end to 8.1% at the high end, with very large regional differences. The main cause of both the response to warming and the variation between algorithms is the temperature sensitivity of the primary production algorithms. We also show results for the period between the industrial revolution and 2050 and 2090.
    Description: J. L. Sarmiento and R. Slater were supported by the NOAA Office of Global Programs grant NA56GP0439 to the Carbon Modeling Consortium for model development and by NSF grant OCE00973166 for model and observational interpretations as part of the JGOFS Synthesis and Modeling Project. R. Barber was supported by NSF grant OCE 0136270 as part of the JGOFS Synthesis and Modeling Project. S. Doney and J. Kleypas wish to thank the Community Climate System Model science team and the Climate Simulation Laboratory at NCAR and acknowledge support from NOAA-OGP grant NOAA-NA96GP0360S. Spall is funded through the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs contract PECD 7/12/37.
    Keywords: Climate warming ; Ocean biogeochemistry
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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