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  • 1
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    Climate extremes and the carbon cycle (2013)
    Nature Publishing Group (NPG)
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    Publication Date: 2013-08-21
    Description: The terrestrial biosphere is a key component of the global carbon cycle and its carbon balance is strongly influenced by climate. Continuing environmental changes are thought to increase global terrestrial carbon uptake. But evidence is mounting that climate extremes such as droughts or storms can lead to a decrease in regional ecosystem carbon stocks and therefore have the potential to negate an expected increase in terrestrial carbon uptake. Here we explore the mechanisms and impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle, and propose a pathway to improve our understanding of present and future impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon budget.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Reichstein, Markus -- Bahn, Michael -- Ciais, Philippe -- Frank, Dorothea -- Mahecha, Miguel D -- Seneviratne, Sonia I -- Zscheischler, Jakob -- Beer, Christian -- Buchmann, Nina -- Frank, David C -- Papale, Dario -- Rammig, Anja -- Smith, Pete -- Thonicke, Kirsten -- van der Velde, Marijn -- Vicca, Sara -- Walz, Ariane -- Wattenbach, Martin -- England -- Nature. 2013 Aug 15;500(7462):287-95. doi: 10.1038/nature12350.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, 07745 Jena, Germany. markus.reichstein@bgc-jena.mpg.de〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23955228" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Keywords: *Carbon Cycle ; *Climate Change ; *Ecosystem ; Plants/metabolism ; Temperature
    Print ISSN: 0028-0836
    Electronic ISSN: 1476-4687
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by Nature Publishing Group (NPG)
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  • 2
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    Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to −0.021 ± 0.007 and −0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered.
    Keywords: 333.7 ; 551.6 ; land use change ; climate change projections ; terrestrial ecosystems ; vegetation modeling ; ecosystem service indicators ; legacy effects
    Language: English
    Type: map
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  • 3
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    Legacy Effects from Historical Environmental Changes Dominate Future Terrestrial Carbon Uptake (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-02
    Description: Ecosystems continuously adapt to interacting environmental drivers that change over time. Consequently, the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystem may presently still be affected by past anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., deforestation) and other environmental changes (e.g., climate change). However, even though such so-called “legacy effects” are implicitly included in many carbon cycle modeling studies, they are typically not explicitly quantified and therefore scientists might not be aware of their long-term importance. Here, we use the ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS to quantify legacy effects for the 21st century and the respective contributions of the following environmental drivers: climate change, CO2 fertilization, land use change, wood harvest, nitrogen deposition, and nitrogen fertilization. According to our simulations, the combined legacy effects of historical (1850–2015) environmental changes result in a land carbon uptake of +126 Gt C over the future (2015–2099) period. This by far exceeds the impacts of future environmental changes (range −53 Gt C to +16 Gt C for three scenarios) and is comparable in magnitude to historical carbon losses (−154 Gt C). Legacy effects can mainly be attributed to ecosystems still adapting to historical increases in atmospheric CO2 (+65 Gt C) and nitrogen deposition (+33 Gt C), but long-term vegetation regrowth following agricultural abandonment (+8 Gt C) and wood harvest (+19 Gt C) also play a role. The response of the biosphere to historical environmental changes dominates future terrestrial carbon cycling at least until midcentury. Legacy effects persist many decades after environmental changes occurred and need to be considered when interpreting changes and estimating terrestrial carbon uptake potentials.
    Keywords: 333.7 ; ecosystem modeling ; environmental drivers ; carbon sink ; lagged response ; ecosystem equilibrium ; committed change
    Language: English
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