ALBERT

Description: The object of this research was to develop an algorithm for the design of practical, optimal flight test inputs for aircraft parameter estimation experiments. A general, single pass technique was developed which allows global optimization of the flight test input design for parameter estimation using the principles of dynamic programming with the input forms limited to square waves only. Provision was made for practical constraints on the input, including amplitude constraints, control system dynamics, and selected input frequency range exclusions. In addition, the input design was accomplished while imposing output amplitude constraints required by model validity and considerations of safety during the flight test. The algorithm has multiple input design capability, with optional inclusion of a constraint that only one control move at a time, so that a human pilot can implement the inputs. It is shown that the technique can be used to design experiments for estimation of open loop model parameters from closed loop flight test data. The report includes a new formulation of the optimal input design problem, a description of a new approach to the solution, and a summary of the characteristics of the algorithm, followed by three example applications of the new technique which demonstrate the quality and expanded capabilities of the input designs produced by the new technique. In all cases, the new input design approach showed significant improvement over previous input design methods in terms of achievable parameter accuracies.

Description: An important part of building high fidelity mathematical models based on measured data is calculating the accuracy associated with statistical estimates of the model parameters. Indeed, without some idea of the accuracy of parameter estimates, the estimates themselves have limited value. In this work, an expression based on theoretical analysis was developed to properly compute parameter accuracy measures for maximum likelihood estimates with colored residuals. This result is important because experience from the analysis of measured data reveals that the residuals from maximum likelihood estimation are almost always colored. The calculations involved can be appended to conventional maximum likelihood estimation algorithms. Simulated data runs were used to show that the parameter accuracy measures computed with this technique accurately reflect the quality of the parameter estimates from maximum likelihood estimation without the need for analysis of the output residuals in the frequency domain or heuristically determined multiplication factors. The result is general, although the application studied here is maximum likelihood estimation of aerodynamic model parameters from flight test data.

Description: A new technique for designing optimal flight test inputs for accurate estimation of instrumentation systematic errors was developed and demonstrated. A simulation model of the F-18 High Angle of Attack Research Vehicle (HARV) aircraft was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the optimal input compared to input recorded during flight test. Instrumentation systematic error parameter estimates and their standard errors were compared. It was found that the optimal input design improved error parameter estimates and their accuracies for a fixed time input design. Pilot acceptability of the optimal input design was demonstrated using a six degree-of-freedom fixed base piloted simulation of the F-18 HARV. The technique described in this work provides a practical, optimal procedure for designing inputs for data compatibility experiments.

Description: A new technique was developed for designing optimal flight test inputs for aircraft parameter estimation experiments. The principles of dynamic programming were used for the design in the time domain. This approach made it possible to include realistic practical constraints on the input and output variables. A description of the new approach is presented, followed by an example for a multiple input linear model describing the lateral dynamics of a fighter aircraft. The optimal input designs produced by the new technique demonstrated improved quality and expanded capability relative to the conventional multiple input design method.

Description: In recent years, great efforts have been devoted to the study of the human-induced earthquakes, owing to the effect that these earthquakes can have in terms of seismic hazard. In the past, different authors proposed classification schemes for distinguishing different mechanisms for fluid-induced seismicity generation (see, e.g. McGarr 2000). For example, it has been suggested that when the anthropic activities are responsible for a very small part of the stress field perturbations, the seismic events can be classified as “triggered”, while when the anthropic activities are responsible for the most of stress perturbations driving to the event occurrence, it can be classified as “induced”. In practice, we can rather consider that it may exist a continuum of cases depending on both the characteristics of technological operations and the local stress state.

Description: Ministero di Sviluppo Economico, Direzione Generale per le Infrastrutture e la Sicurezza dei Sistemi Energetici e Geominerari (DG ISSEG)

Description: Published

Description: Bologna

Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto

Description: Public concern about anthropogenic seismic- ity in Italy first arose in the aftermath of the deadly M ≈ 6 earthquakes that hit the Emilia-Romagna region (northern Italy) in May 2012. As these events occurred in a (tectonically active) region of oil and gas production and storage, the question was raised, whether stress perturbations due to underground industrial activities could have induced or triggered the shocks. Following expert recommendations, in 2014, the Italian Oil & Gas Safety Authority (DGS-UNMIG, Ministry of Economic Development) published guidelines (ILG - Indirizzi e linee guida per il monitoraggio della sismicità, delle deformazioni del suolo e delle pressioni di poro nell’ambito delle attività antropiche), describing regula- tions regarding hydrocarbon extraction, waste-water in- jection and gas storage that could also be adapted to other technologies, such as dams, geothermal systems, CO2 storage, and mining. The ILG describe the frame- work for the different actors involved in monitoring activities, their relationship and responsibilities, the procedure to be followed in case of variations of mon- itored parameters, the need for in-depth scientific anal- yses, the definition of different alert levels, their mean- ing and the parameters to be used to activate such alerts. Four alert levels are defined, the transition among which follows a decision to be taken jointly by relevant au- thorities and industrial operator on the basis of evalua- tion of several monitored parameters (micro-seismicity, ground deformation, pore pressure) carried on by a scientific-technical agency. Only in the case of liquid reinjection, the alert levels are automatically activated on the basis of exceedance of thresholds for earthquake magnitude and ground shaking – in what is generally known as a Traffic Light System (TLS). Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia has been charged by the Italian oil and gas safety authority (DGS- UNMIG) to apply the ILG in three test cases (two oil extraction and one gas storage plants). The ILG indeed represent a very important and positive innovation, as they constitute official guidelines to coherently regulate monitoring activity on a national scale. While pilot studies are still mostly under way, we may point out merits of the whole framework, and a few possible critical issues, requiring special care in the implementa- tion. Attention areas of adjacent reservoirs, possibly licenced to different operators, may overlap, hence mak- ing the point for joint monitoring, also in view of the possible interaction between stress changes related to the different reservoirs. The prescribed initial blank- level monitoring stage, aimed at assessing background seismicity, may lose significance in case of nearby ac- tive production. Magnitude – a critical parameter used to define a possible step-up in activation levels – has inherent uncertainty and can be evaluated using differ- ent scales. A final comment considers the fact that relevance of TLS, most frequently used in hydraulic fracturing operations, may not be high in case of trig- gered tectonic events.

Description: Published

Description: 1015–1028

Description: 1IT. Reti di monitoraggio e sorveglianza

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Earthquake hypocentral location is perhaps the most classical problem in seismology, the solution of which is often affected by significant uncertainty. In monitoring the effects of underground anthropogenic activities, the earthquake hypocentral location, magnitude, and ground motions are important parameters for managing induced seismicity (as e.g., for operating traffic‐light systems). Such decisional systems define the operative reactions to be enacted once an earthquake, exceeding some magnitude or ground‐motion threshold, occurs within a monitoring volume defined in the neighborhood of a certain anthropogenic underground activity. In this case, a reliable evaluation of the hypocentral location, along with its uncertainty, becomes crucial for rational decision making. In this article, we analyze different sources of uncertainty that can be relevant for the determination of earthquake source locations, and introduce a logic‐tree‐based ensemble modeling approach for framing the problem in a decision‐making context. To demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach, we analyze uncertainties in the location of a seismic event that occurred on 22 July 2019 within the perimeter of the monitoring domain defined in the Val d’Agri oil field (southern Italy). We cast the result as a model ensemble that allows us to obtain samples from a parent distribution that better represents both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties of the earthquake location problem. We find that often‐neglected epistemic uncertainties (i.e., those that arise when considering alternative plausible modeling approaches or data) can be considerably larger and more representative of the state of knowledge about the source location, than the standard errors usually reported by the most common algorithms. Given the consequential repercussions of decision making under uncertainty, we stress that an objective evaluation of epistemic uncertainties associated with any parameter used to support decisional processes must be a priority for the scientific community.

Description: Centro per il Monitoraggio delle attività di Sottosuolo (CMS).

Description: Published

Description: 2423–2440

Description: 3SR TERREMOTI - Attività dei Centri

Description: JCR Journal

Description: We use seismic data together with a subglacial bedrock relief from the BEDMAP2 database to obtain a new three- layer model of the consolidated (crystalline) crust of Antarctica that locally improves the global seismic crustal model CRUST1.0. We collect suitable data for constructing crustal layers, analyse them and build maps of the crustal layer thickness and seismic velocities. We use the subglacial relief according to a tectonic configuration and then interpolate data using a statistical kriging method. The P-wave velocity information from old seismic profiles have been supplemented with the new shear-wave velocity models. We adjust the thickness of crustal layers by multiplying a total crustal thickness by a percentage ratio of each individual layer at each point. Our re- sults reveal large variations in seismic velocities between different crustal blocks forming Antarctica. The most pronounced differences exist between East and West Antarctica. In East Antarctica, a high P-wave velocity (vP 〉 7 km/s) layer in the lower crust is absent. The P-wave velocity in the lower crust changes from 6.1 km/s beneath the Lambert Rift to 6.9 km/s beneath the Wilkes Basin. In West Antarctica, a thick mafic lower crust is characterized by large P-wave velocities, ranging from 7.0 km/s under the Ross Sea to 7.3 km/s under the Byrd Basin. In contrast, velocities in the lower crust beneath the Transantarctic and Ellsworth-Whitmore Mountains are ~6.8 km/s. The P-wave velocities in the upper crust in East Antarctica are within the range 5.5–6.4 km/s. The upper crust of West Antarctica is characterized by the P-wave velocities of 5.6–6.3 km/s. The P-wave veloc- ities in the middle crust vary within 5.9–6.6 km/s in East Antarctica and within 6.3–6.5 km/s in West Antarctica. A low-velocity layer (5.8–5.9 km/s) is detected at depth of ~20–25 km beneath the Princes Elizabeth Land.

Description: Published

Description: 1-18

Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra

Description: JCR Journal

Description: We measure ellipticity of teleseismic Rayleigh waves at 95 seismic stations in Northern Italy, for wave period between 10 and 110 s, using an automatic technique and a large volume of high-quality seismic recordings from over 500 global earthquakes that occurred in 2008– 2014. Northern Italy includes a wide range of crustal structures, from the wide and deep Po Plain sedimentary basin to outcropping sedimentary and crystalline rocks in the Northern Apennines and Alps. It thus provides an excellent case for studying the influence of shallow earth structure on polarization of surface waves. The ellipticity measurements show excellent spatial correlation with geological features in the region, such as high ellipticity associated with regions of low seismic velocity in the Po Plain and low ellipticity values in faster, hard rock regions in the Alps and Apennine mountains. Moreover, the observed ellipticity values also relate to the thickness of the basement, as highlighted by observed differences beneath the Alps and the Apennines. Comparison between observations and predicted ellipticity from a reference crustal model of the region show substantial fit, particularly for T ∼ 38 s data. Discrepancy for shorter wave period suggests that slight modifications of the model are needed, and that the ellipticity measurements could help to better constrain the shallow crustal structure of the region. Predictions for the Po Plain are larger than the observations by a factor of four or more and transition from retrograde to prograde Rayleigh wave motion at the surface for periods of T ∼ 10–13 s is predicted for seismic stations in the plain. Analysis of corresponding real data indicates a possible detection of teleseismic prograde particle motion, but the weak teleseismic earthquake signals are mixed with ambient noise signals at the predicted, short, transition periods. Detection of the period of polarity inversion from the joint analysis of earthquake and ambient noise ellipticity measurements may provide further, stringent, constraints on the structure of sedimentary basins.

Description: Published

Description: 395–407

Description: 4T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica

Description: JCR Journal

Description: We develop a new method for measuring ellipticity of Rayleigh waves from ambient noise records by degree-of-polarization (DOP) analysis. The new method, named DOP-E, shows a good capability to retrieve accurate ellipticity curves separated from incoherent noise. In order to validate the method we perform synthetic tests simulating noise in a 1D Earth model. We also perform measurements on real data from Antarctica and Northern Italy. Observed curves show a good fit with measurements from earthquake records and with theoretical ellipticity curves. The inversion of real data measurements for vS structure shows a good agreement with previous models. In particular the shear-wave structure beneath Concordia station shows no evidence of a significant layer of liquid water at the base of the ice. The new method can be used to measure ellipticity at high frequency and therefore it will allow the imaging of near-surface structure, and possibly of temporal changes in subsurface properties. It promises to be useful to study near-surface processes in a wide range of geological settings, such as volcanoes, fault zones and glaciers.

Description: Published

Description: 1817–1830

Description: 4T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica

Description: JCR Journal