Publication Date:
2017-04-04
Description:
The Campi Flegrei caldera is an active and restless volcano in the densely inhabited Neapolitan area of
southern Italy. Because of the very high value (lives, properties, infrastructures, etc.) exposed to potential
volcanic hazards, it is one of the areas at highest volcanic risk on Earth. In such a situation we have made an
attempt to contribute to assessment of its volcanic hazards by providing a quantitative probabilistic longterm
forecast of style and size of the next eruption.
We have evaluated the most relevant physical parameters of the 22 explosive eruptions of the Campi Flegrei
caldera over the past 5 ka. This time span has been taken as the reference period for volcanic hazards
assessment on the basis of the volcanic and deformation history of the caldera. The evaluated parameters
include dispersal, volume and density of the pyroclastic deposits, volume of erupted magma, total erupted
mass, and eruption magnitude. The obtained results permit a size classification of the explosive eruptions,
which are grouped into three sizes: small, medium, and large. On the basis of the reconstructed eruption
dynamics, we have considered a type event(s) representative of each size class and hypothesized the style of
the next event. An effusive eruption will likely generate a dome or very small lava flows, while an explosive
event of any size very probably will produce particles fallout and flowage of pyroclastic density currents.
Using a Bayesian inference procedure, we have assigned a conditional probability of occurrence to each of
the eruption size classes. A small-size explosive eruption is the most likely event with a probability of about
60%; a large-size explosive eruption is the least likely event with a probability of about 4%; a medium-size
explosive eruption has a probability of occurrence of about 25%; an effusive eruption has about 11%
probability of occurrence.
Description:
Published
Description:
265–276
Description:
3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
Description:
4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
Description:
JCR Journal
Description:
reserved
Keywords:
volcanic hazards assessment
;
eruption size
;
eruption style
;
Campi Flegrei caldera
;
04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.05. Volcanic rocks
;
04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
article
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