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  • 1
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    Limited overlap between the seismic gap and coseismic slip of the great 2010 Chile earthquake (2011)
    Nature Publishing Group
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The MW 8.8 mega-thrust earthquake and tsunami that occurred on February 27, 2010, offshore Maule region, Chile, was not unexpected. A clearly identified seismic gap existed in an area where tectonic loading has been accumulating since the great 1835 earthquake experienced and described by Darwin during the voyage of the Beagle. Here we jointly invert tsunami and geodetic data (InSAR, GPS, land-level changes), to derive a robust model for the co-seismic slip distribution and induced co-seismic stress changes, and compare them to past earthquakes and the pre-seismic locking distribution. We aim to assess if the Maule earthquake has filled the Darwin gap, decreasing the probability of a future shock . We find that the main slip patch is located to the north of the gap, overlapping the rupture zone of the MW 8.0 1928 earthquake, and that a secondary concentration of slip occurred to the south; the Darwin gap was only partially filled and a zone of high pre-seismic locking remains unbroken. This observation is not consistent with the assumption that distributions of seismic rupture might be correlated with pre-seismic locking, potentially allowing the anticipation of slip distributions in seismic gaps. Moreover, increased stress on this unbroken patch might have increased the probability of another major to great earthquake there in the near future.
    Description: Published
    Description: 173-177
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Source process ; Chile ; Tsunami ; Joint Inversion ; Seismic Gap ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.06. Subduction related processes ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.03. Inverse methods
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    Source of the 6 February 2013 Mw 8.0 Santa Cruz Islands Tsunami (2015)
    Copernicus GmbH
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: On 6 February 2013 an Mw 8.0 subduction earthquake occurred close to Santa Cruz Islands at the transition between the Solomon and the New Hebrides Trench. The ensuing tsunami caused significant inundation on the closest Nendo Island. The seismic source was studied with teleseismic broadband P waves inversion optimized with tsunami forward modeling at DART buoys (Lay et al., 2013), and with inversion of teleseismic body and surface waves (Hayes et al., 2014). The two studies also use different hypocenters and different planar fault models, and found quite different slip models. In particular, Hayes et al. (2014) argued for an aseismic slip patch SE from the hypocenter. We here develop a 3D model of the fault surface from seismicity analysis and retrieve the tsunami source by inverting DART and tide-gauge data. Our tsunami source model features a main slip patch (peak value of ~11 m) SE of the hypocentre, and reaching the trench. The rake direction is consistent with the progressively more oblique plate convergence towards the Solomon trench. The tsunami source partially overlaps the hypothesized aseismic slip area, which then might have slipped coseismically.
    Description: ASTARTE - Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe - FP7-ENV2013 6.4-3, Grant 603839; Italian flagship project RITMARE
    Description: Published
    Description: 1371–1379
    Description: 4T. Fisica dei terremoti e scenari cosismici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Subduction zone ; Tsunami ; Inverse problem ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.06. Subduction related processes ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.03. Inverse methods
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    Probabilistic hazard for seismically induced tsunamis: accuracy and feasibility of inundation maps (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) relies on computationally demanding numerical simulations of tsunami generation, propagation, and non-linear inundation on high-resolution topo-bathymetric models. Here we focus on tsunamis generated by co-seismic sea floor dis- placement, that is, on Seismic PTHA (SPTHA). A very large number of tsunami simulations are typically needed to incorporate in SPTHA the full expected variability of seismic sources (the aleatory uncertainty). We propose an approach for reducing their number. To this end, we (i) introduce a simplified event tree to achieve an effective and consistent exploration of the seismic source parameter space; (ii) use the computationally inexpensive linear approximation for tsunami propagation to construct a preliminary SPTHA that calculates the probability of maximum offshore tsunami wave height (H Max) at a given target site; (iii) apply a two-stage filtering procedure to these ‘linear’ SPTHA results, for selecting a reduced set of sources and (iv) calculate ‘non-linear’ probabilistic inundation maps at the target site, using only the selected sources. We find that the selection of the important sources needed for approximating probabilistic inundation maps can be obtained based on the offshore HMax values only. The filtering procedure is semi-automatic and can be easily repeated for any target sites. We describe and test the performances of our approach with a case study in the Mediterranean that considers potential subduction earthquakes on a section of the Hellenic Arc, three target sites on the coast of eastern Sicily and one site on the coast of southern Crete. The comparison between the filtered SPTHA results and those obtained for the full set of sources indicates that our approach allows for a 75–80 per cent reduction of the number of the numerical simulations needed, while preserving the accuracy of probabilistic inundation maps to a reasonable degree.
    Description: Published
    Description: 574-588
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Tsunami ; Hazard ; Probabilistic ; Subduction ; Mediterranean ; SPTHA ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.06. Subduction related processes
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
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    Clues from joint inversion of tsunami and geodetic data of the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake (2013)
    Nature Publishing Group
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The 2011 Tohoku-oki (Mw 9.1) earthquake is so far the best-observed megathrust rupture, which allowed the collection of unprecedented offshore data. The joint inversion of tsunami waveforms (DART buoys, bottom pressure sensors, coastal wave gauges, and GPS-buoys) and static geodetic data (onshore GPS, seafloor displacements obtained by a GPS/acoustic combination technique), allows us to retrieve the slip distribution on a non-planar fault. We show that the inclusion of near-source data is necessary to image the details of slip pattern (maximum slip ,48 m, up to ,35 m close to the Japan trench), which generated the large and shallow seafloor coseismic deformations and the devastating inundation of the Japanese coast. We investigate the relation between the spatial distribution of previously inferred interseismic coupling and coseismic slip and we highlight the importance of seafloor geodetic measurements to constrain the interseismic coupling, which is one of the key-elements for long-term earthquake and tsunami hazard assessment.
    Description: Published
    Description: 385
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: N/A or not JCR
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Tohoku ; Subduction ; Tsunami ; Inverse problem ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.06. Subduction related processes
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
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    Integrating geologic fault data into tsunami hazard studies (2013)
    Copernicus Publications
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We present the realization of a fault-source data set designed to become the starting point in regional-scale tsunami hazard studies. Our approach focuses on the parametric fault characterization in terms of geometry, kinematics, and assessment of activity rates, and includes a systematic classification in six justification levels of epistemic uncertainty related with the existence and behaviour of fault sources. We set up a case study in the central Mediterranean Sea, an area at the intersection of the European, African, and Aegean plates, characterized by a complex and debated tectonic structure and where several tsunamis occurred in the past. Using tsunami scenarios of maximum wave height due to crustal earthquakes (Mw=7) and subduction earthquakes (Mw=7 and Mw=8), we illustrate first-order consequences of critical choices in addressing the seismogenic and tsunamigenic potentials of fault sources. Although tsunamis generated by Mw=8 earthquakes predictably affect the entire basin, the impact of tsunamis generated by Mw=7 earthquakes on either crustal or subduction fault sources can still be strong at many locales. Such scenarios show how the relative location/orientation of faults with respect to target coastlines coupled with bathymetric features suggest avoiding the preselection of fault sources without addressing their possible impact onto hazard analysis results.
    Description: This work was supported by the EC-Research Framework programme FP7, Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe, Grant Agreement No. 226769 and the Flagship Project RITMARE – The Italian Research for the Sea – coordinated by the Italian National Research Council and funded by the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research within the National Research Program 2011–2013.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1025-1050
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: active fault ; tsunami ; tsunamigenic source ; earthquake ; PTHA ; hazard ; epistemic uncertainty ; tectonic moment rate ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.01. Analytical and numerical modeling ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.04. Marine geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.06. Subduction related processes ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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