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  • 1
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    Uncertainties in strong ground-motion prediction with finite-fault synthetic seismograms: an application to the 1984 M 5.7 Gubbio, central Italy, earthquake. (2008)
    Seismological Society of America
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: This study investigates the engineering applicability of two conceptually different finite-fault simulation techniques. We focus our attention on two important aspects: first to quantify the capability of the methods to reproduce the observed ground-motion parameters (peaks and integral quantities); second to quantify the dependence of the strong-motion parameters on the variability in the large-scale kinematic definition of the source (i.e. position of nucleation point, value of the rupture velocity and distribution of the final slip on the fault). We applied an approximated simulation technique, the Deterministic-Stochastic Method DSM, and a broadband technique, the Hybrid-Integral-Composite method HIC, to model the 1984 Mw 5.7 Gubbio, central Italy, earthquake, at 5 accelerometric stations. We first optimize the position of nucleation point and the value of rupture velocity for three different final slip distributions on the fault by minimizing an error function in terms of acceleration response spectra in the frequency band from 1 to 9 Hz. We found that the best model is given by a rupture propagating at about 2.65 km/s from a hypocenter located approximately at the center of the fault. In the second part of the paper we calculate more than 2400 scenarios varying the kinematic source parameters. At the five sites we compute the residuals distributions for the various strong-motion parameters and show that their standard deviations depend on the source-parameterization adopted by the two techniques. Furthermore, we show that, Arias Intensity and significant duration are characterized by the largest and smallest standard deviation, respectively. Housner Intensity results better modeled and less affected by uncertainties in the source kinematic parameters than Arias Intensity. The fact that the uncertainties in the kinematic model affects the variability of different ground-motion parameters in different ways has to be taken into account when performing hazard assessment and earthquake engineering studies for future events.
    Description: In press
    Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: ground-motion simulation ; Gubbio 1984 ; ground-motion variability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    Uncertainties in Strong Ground-Motion Prediction with Finite-Fault Synthetic Seismograms: An Application to the 1984 M 5.7 Gubbio, Central Italy, Earthquake (2010)
    Seismological Society of America
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: This study investigates the engineering applicability of two conceptually different finite-fault simulation techniques. We focus our attention on two important aspects: first to quantify the capability of the methods to reproduce the observed ground-motion parameters (peaks and integral quantities); second to quantify the dependence of the strong-motion parameters on the variability in the large-scale kinematic definition of the source (i.e., position of the nucleation point, value of the rupture velocity, and distribution of the final slip on the fault). We applied an approximated simulation technique, the deterministic-stochastic method and a broadband technique, the hybrid-integral-composite method, to model the 1984 Mw 5.7 Gubbio, central Italy, earthquake, at five accelerometric stations. We first optimize the position of the nucleation point and the value of the rupture velocity for three different final slip distributions on the fault by minimizing an error function in terms of acceleration response spectra in the frequency band from 1 to 9 Hz. We found that the best model is given by a rupture propagating at about 2:65 km=sec from a hypocenter located approximately at the center of the fault. In the second part of the article we calculate more than 2400 scenarios varying the kinematic source parameters. At the five sites we compute the residuals distributions for the various strongmotion parameters and show that their standard deviations depend on the source parameterization adopted by the two techniques. Furthermore, we show that Arias Intensity (AI) and significant duration are characterized by the largest and smallest standard deviation, respectively. Housner Intensity is better modeled and less affected by uncertainties in the source kinematic parameters than AI. The fact that the uncertainties in the kinematic model affects the variability of different ground-motion parameters in different ways has to be taken into account when performing hazard assessment and earthquake engineering studies for future events.
    Description: Published
    Description: 647-663
    Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: ground-motion simulation ; Gubbio 1984 ; ground-motion variability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    High-Frequency Directivity in Strong Ground Motion Modeling Methods (2006)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-02-03
    Description: We are investigating two distinct strong ground motion simulation techniques as regards their high-frequency directivity: i) the composite model with a fractal subevent size dis- tribution, based on the method of summation of empirical Green’s functions, and ii) the integral model with the k-squared slip model with k-dependent rise time, based on the representation theorem. We test the simulations in a 1D layered crustal model against em- pirical PGA attenuation relations, particularly with regard to their uncertainty, described by the standard deviation ( ). We assume that any synthetic model for a particular earth- quake should not provide a PGA scatter larger than the observed scatter for a large set of earthquakes. The 1999 Athens earthquake (Mw=5.9) is studied as a test example. In the composite method, the synthetic data display a scatter of less than ±2 around the empirical mean. The k-squared method displays a larger scatter, demonstrating strong high-frequency directivity. It is shown that the latter can be reduced by introducing a formal spectral modification. 1 Introduction Low-frequency directivity effects are well known. For example, there is a number of seismic recordings of recent earthquakes (e.g., 1992 Landers, 1994 Northridge, 1995 Kobe, 1999 Chi-Chi), which show long-period velocity pulses caused by rupture propagation towards a station. This effect can be successfully explained by the apparent source time function varying with azimuth (Haskell, 1964). 2
    Description: Unpublished
    Description: open
    Keywords: directivy, strong ground motions ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: manuscript
    Format: 8493508 bytes
    Format: null
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  • 4
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    Ground-Motion Simulations for the M 6.9 Irpinia 1980 Earthquake (Southern Italy) and Scenario Events (2011)
    Seismological Society of America
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this paper, we adopt three ground-motion simulation techniques (EXSIM, Motazedian and Atkinson, 2005, DSM, Pacor et al., 2005 and HIC, Gallovič and Brokešová, 2007), with the aim of investigating the different performances in near-fault strong-motion modeling and prediction from past and future events. The test case is the 1980, M 6.9, Irpinia earthquake, the strongest event recorded in Italy. First, we simulate the recorded strong-motion data and validate the model parameters by computing spectral acceleration and peak amplitudes residual distributions. The validated model is then used to investigate the influence of site effects and to compute synthetic ground motions around the fault. Afterward, we simulate the expected ground motions from scenario events on the Irpinia fault, varying the hypocenters, the rupture velocities and the slip distributions. We compare the median ground motions and related standard deviations from all scenario events with empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The synthetic median values are included in the median ± one standard deviation of the considered GMPEs. Synthetic peak ground accelerations show median values smaller and with a faster decay with distance than the empirical ones. The synthetics total standard deviation is of the same order or smaller than the empirical one and it shows considerable differences from one simulation technique to another. We decomposed the total standard deviation into its between-scenario and within-scenario components. The larger contribution to the total sigma comes from the latter while the former is found to be smaller and in good agreement with empirical inter-event variability.
    Description: In press
    Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Irpinia 1980 earthquake ; ground-motion simulation ; ground-motion variability ; scenario events ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
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    Ground‐Motion Simulations for the M 6.9 Irpinia 1980 Earthquake (Southern Italy) and Scenario Events (2012)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this paper, we adopt three ground‐motion simulation techniques (EXSIM, Motazedian and Atkinson, 2005, DSM, Pacor et al., 2005 and HIC, Gallovič and Brokešová, 2007), with the aim of investigating the different performances in near‐fault strong‐motion modeling and prediction from past and future events. The test case is the 1980, M 6.9, Irpinia earthquake, the strongest event recorded in Italy. First, we simulate the recorded strong‐motion data and validate the model parameters by computing spectral acceleration and peak amplitudes residual distributions. The validated model is then used to investigate the influence of site effects and to compute synthetic ground motions around the fault. Afterward, we simulate the expected ground motions from scenario events on the Irpinia fault, varying the hypocenters, the rupture velocities and the slip distributions. We compare the median ground motions and related standard deviations from all scenario events with empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The synthetic median values are included in the median ± one standard deviation of the considered GMPEs. Synthetic peak ground accelerations show median values smaller and with a faster decay with distance than the empirical ones. The synthetics total standard deviation is of the same order or smaller than the empirical one and it shows considerable differences from one simulation technique to another. We decomposed the total standard deviation into its between‐scenario and within‐scenario components. The larger contribution to the total sigma comes from the latter while the former is found to be smaller and in good agreement with empirical inter‐event variability.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1136-1151
    Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: ground-motion simulation ; 1980 Irpinia earthquake ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 6
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    Complexity of theMw6.3 2009 L’Aquila (central Italy) earthquake: 2. Broadband strong motion modeling (2012)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Near-fault strong-ground motions (0.1–10 Hz) recorded during the Mw 6.3 2009 L’Aquila earthquake exhibit great spatial variability. Modeling the observed seismograms allows linking distinct features of the observed wavefield to particular source and propagation effects and provides insights on strong motion complexity from this moderate magnitude event. We utilize a hybrid integral-composite approach based on a k-square kinematic rupture model, combining low-frequency coherent and high-frequency incoherent source radiation and providing omega-squared source spectral decay. Several source model features, proven to be stable by means of an uncertainty analysis in the preceding low-frequency (〈0.2 Hz) multiple finite-extent source inversion (Paper 1), were constrained. Synthetic Green’s functions are calculated in a 1D-layered crustal model including 1D soil profiles to account for site-specific response (where available). The results show that although the local site effects improve the modeling, the spatial broadband ground-motion variability is to large extent controlled by the rupture kinematics. The modeling thus confirms and further constraints the source model features, including the position and slip amount of the two main asperities, the largest asperity time delay and the rupture velocity distribution on the fault. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the crossover frequency dividing the coherent and incoherent wavefield, often considered independent on the station position, has to be variable in order to adequately reproduce both near and far station recordings. This suggests that the incoherency of the radiated wavefield is controlled by the wave-propagation phenomena and/or the initial updip rupture propagation was very smooth (coherent) up to relatively high frequencies (〉2 Hz)
    Description: Published
    Description: B0438
    Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: broad band modeling, source complexity, aquila earthquake ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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