Publication Date:
2012-02-03
Description:
Earthquake occurrence stems from a complex interaction of processes that
are still partially unknown. This lack of knowledge is revealed by the different
statistical distributions that have been so far proposed, and by the different
beliefs about the role of some key components as the tectonic setting,
fault recurrence, seismic clusters, and fault interaction. Here, we explore these
issues through a numerical model based on a realistic interacting fault system.
We use an active fault system in Central Italy responsible for moderate
to large earthquakes, where geometric and kinematic parameters of each
structure can be confidently assessed. Then, we generate synthetic catalogs
by modeling different seismogenic processes and allowing co- and post-seismic
fault interaction. The comparison of synthetic and real seismic catalogs highlights
many interesting features: (i) synthetic seismic catalogs reproduce the
short-term clustering and the long-term modulation observed in the historical
catalog of the last centuries; (ii) a recurrent model of earthquake occurrence
on faults is more effective than a Poisson model to explain such short-term and long-term time features; (iii) a realistic fault pattern is a key component
to generate stochasticity in the seismic catalog, preventing a systematic
time ”synchronization” of strongly coupled faults; (iv) such a stochasticity
may put strong limits to the forecasting capability of models based on
fault interaction, even though the latter is a key component of the process.
Finally, the model allows explicit predictions on future paleoseismological
observations to be made.
Description:
In press
Description:
3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
Description:
3.2. Tettonica attiva
Description:
JCR Journal
Description:
open
Keywords:
Earthquake interactions
;
probability
;
04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
article
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