Publication Date:
2017-04-04
Description:
We present the realization of a fault-source data set designed to become the starting point in regional-scale tsunami hazard studies. Our approach focuses on the parametric fault characterization in terms of geometry, kinematics, and assessment of activity rates, and includes a systematic classification in six justification levels of epistemic uncertainty related with the existence and behaviour of fault sources. We set up a case study in the central Mediterranean Sea, an area at the intersection of the European, African, and Aegean plates, characterized by a complex and debated tectonic structure and where several tsunamis occurred in the past. Using tsunami scenarios of maximum wave height due to crustal earthquakes (Mw=7) and subduction earthquakes (Mw=7 and Mw=8), we illustrate first-order consequences of critical choices in addressing the seismogenic and tsunamigenic potentials of fault sources. Although tsunamis generated by Mw=8 earthquakes predictably affect the entire basin, the impact of tsunamis generated by Mw=7 earthquakes on either crustal or subduction fault sources can still be strong at many locales. Such scenarios show how the relative location/orientation of faults with respect to target coastlines coupled with bathymetric features suggest avoiding the preselection of fault sources without addressing their possible impact onto hazard analysis results.
Description:
This work was supported by the EC-Research
Framework programme FP7, Seismic Hazard Harmonization in
Europe, Grant Agreement No. 226769 and the Flagship Project
RITMARE – The Italian Research for the Sea – coordinated by
the Italian National Research Council and funded by the Italian
Ministry of Education, University and Research within the National
Research Program 2011–2013.
Description:
Published
Description:
1025-1050
Description:
3.2. Tettonica attiva
Description:
4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
Description:
JCR Journal
Description:
open
Keywords:
active fault
;
tsunami
;
tsunamigenic source
;
earthquake
;
PTHA
;
hazard
;
epistemic uncertainty
;
tectonic moment rate
;
03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.01. Analytical and numerical modeling
;
04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology
;
04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.04. Marine geology
;
04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology
;
04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
;
04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics
;
04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.06. Subduction related processes
;
04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
article
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