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  • potential growth  (4)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2016-02-08
    Description: Während manche Länder in der Europäischen Währungsunion aufgrund von Schulden- und Strukturkrisen tief in der Rezession stecken, steht die deutsche Wirtschaft derzeit glänzend da. Die Arbeitslosigkeit ist auf den niedrigsten Stand seit der Wiedervereinigung gefallen, die Wirtschaftsleistung ist seit 2009 um mehr als acht Prozent gewachsen und die öffentlichen Haushalte wurden konsolidiert und erwirtschafteten im Jahr 2012 einen Überschuss. Dies ist jedoch keineswegs ein Grund zu Euphorie, im Gegenteil: Betrachtet man die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung Deutschlands aus einer längerfristigeren Perspektive, so zeigt sich, dass das Land im Vergleich zu den meisten EU-Ländern und vielen Euroländern in einigen Bereichen zurückgeblieben ist. Seit 1999 haben die Euroländer im Durchschnitt mehr Wirtschaftswachstum erzielt als Deutschland, und ein großer Teil der erstarkten Wettbewerbsfähigkeit ist auf Lohnzurückhaltung anstatt auf Produktivitätszuwächse zurückzuführen. Die Investitionsquote war längere Zeit rückläufig und ist im internationalen Vergleich niedrig. Die Berechnungen in dieser Studie zeigen, dass Deutschland im Durchschnitt der Jahre 1999 bis 2012 eine Investitionslücke von jährlich drei Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts aufgewiesen hat. Das heißt, es fehlten rund 75 Milliarden Euro pro Jahr. Deutschland hat also einen hohen Investitionsbedarf, um den in den letzten Jahren aufgestauten Investitionsrückstand abzubauen und auch, um langfristig Wachstum und Wohlstand zu sichern. Gleichzeitig ist die gesamtwirtschaftliche Sparquote in Deutschland im internationalen Vergleich mit am höchsten. Wie sich an den ernormen Leistungsbilanzüberschüssen von bis zu sieben Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts ablesen lässt, floss das Ersparte jedoch zu großen Teilen ins Ausland, anstatt in Deutschland investiert zu werden. Insgesamt hat Deutschland damit erhebliche Wachstumschancen verpasst. Seit 1999 haben deutsche Investoren rund 400 Milliarden Euro auf ihr Auslandsvermögen verloren, was etwa 15 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts entspricht. Allein im Zeitraum 2006 bis 2012 waren es 600 Milliarden Euro, beziehungsweise 22 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts. Berechnungen des DIW Berlin in dieser Studie zeigen, dass das deutsche Pro-Kopf-Wirtschaftswachstum unter sonst gleichen Bedingungen jährlich um fast einen Prozentpunkt höher gewesen wäre, wenn die Investitionsquote in den vergangenen 15 Jahren dem Durchschnitt im Euroraum entsprochen hätte. Deutschland ist zudem stark auf forschungsintensive Industrien und wissensintensive Dienstleistungen spezialisiert. Diese Bereiche stellen hohe Anforderungen an Humankapital, Ressourcenschonung und Mobilität und weisen somit einen besonders hohen Investitionsbedarf auf. Simulationen zeigen, dass ein Anstieg der Investitionsquote auf den langjährigen OECD-Durchschnitt zu deutlich höherem Wirtschaftswachstum in Deutschland führen würde. Das Potentialwachstum könnte 2017 um 0,6 Prozentpunkte höher sein; statt bei rund einem Prozent läge es bei 1,6 Prozent. Und auch die Reallöhne dürften durch eine kräftigere Investitionstätigkeit ansteigen. Angesichts günstiger Finanzierungsbedingungen und entlasteter öffentlicher Finanzen in den kommenden Jahren sind die finanziellen Spielräume für private und öffentliche Investitionen derzeit äußerst günstig und sollten jetzt genutzt werden.
    Description: While many countries in the European Monetary Union are deep in recession due to a debt and structural crisis, the German economy appears to have excelled compared to many other euro area states. Unemployment has fallen to the lowest level since German reunification, economic output has grown by over eight percent since 2009 and public budgets have been consolidated, generating a surplus in 2012. But this is no cause for euphoria. On the contrary, if we look at Germany's economic development from a more long-term perspective, we can see that this country is lagging behind in many areas compared to most EU member states and most euro countries. Since 1999, the euro countries have on average achieved more economic growth than Germany and this increase in competitiveness can be largely attributed to wage moderation rather than productivity growth. The investment rate has been falling for a long time and is still low by international standards. The calculations in this study indicate that Germany has shown an annual investment gap of three percent on average since 1999. This means that Germany needs to invest in order to reduce the deficit accumulated in recent years and also to ensure growth and prosperity in the long term. At the same time, the savings rate in Germany is one of the highest by international standards. As evidenced by the enormous current account surpluses of up to seven percent in 2012, most of the savings went abroad, however, rather than being invested in Germany. Overall, Germany has thus missed out on significant growth opportunities. Since 1999, German investors lost around 400 billion euros on their foreign assets, which corresponds to approximately 15 percent of GDP. In the period from 2006 to 2012 alone, this figure was 600 billion euros, or 22 percent of GDP. At the same time, Germany shows an average investment gap of around 75 billion euros each year. Calculations by DIW Berlin for the purposes of this study indicate that if the German investment gap had been closed annual German economic growth per capita could have been up to one percentage point higher on average than observed in reality. Germany also has a high degree of specialization in research-intensive industries and knowledge-intensive services. As a prime location with high requirements concerning human capital, conservation of resources, and mobility, the country has a particularly high demand for structural capital investment. Simulations show that closing the investment gap in the medium term could lead to significantly higher economic growth in Germany. Potential growth could be 0.6 percentage points higher in 2017: at 1.6 percent of GDP as opposed to around one percent. In light of more favorable financing conditions and fewer burdens on public finances in the coming years, the financial scope for private and public investment is currently extremely favorable and good use should be made of it now.
    Keywords: E210 ; E220 ; E230 ; O470 ; ddc:330 ; public and private investment ; potential growth ; net foreign assets
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2016-02-08
    Description: While many countries in the euro area are deep in recession due to a debt and structural crisis, the German economy appears to have excelled compared to many other euro area countries. Unemployment has fallen to the lowest level since German reunification, economic output has grown by over eight percent since 2009, and public budgets have been consolidated, generating a surplus in 2012. But this is no cause for euphoria. On the contrary, if one looks at Germany's economic development from a more long-term perspective, we can see that the country is lagging behind in many areas compared to most EU member states and most euro area countries. Since 1999, the euro area countries have on average achieved more economic growth than Germany and this increase in competitiveness can be largely attributed to wage moderation rather than productivity growth. The rate of investment has been falling for a long time and is very low by international standards. The estimations in this study indicate that Germany has had an annual investment gap of three percent of GDP, on average, since 1999. This means that Germany needs to invest substantially more in order to reduce the investment backlog accumulated in recent years and also to ensure higher potential growth and prosperity in the long term.
    Keywords: E210 ; E220 ; E230 ; O470 ; ddc:330 ; public and private investment ; potential growth ; net foreign assets
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2016-02-08
    Description: Im Zuge der Wirtschafts- und Finanzkrise ist die ohnehin nicht kräftige Investitionstätigkeit in Europa und insbesondere im Euroraum eingebrochen; in Relation zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt sind die Bruttoanlageinvestitionen seit 2008 um vier Prozentpunkte gesunken. Schon vor der Krise war in Teilen des Euroraums - darunter in Deutschland - die Investitionstätigkeit gemessen an den gesamtwirtschaftlichen Bedingungen eher schwach; darauf weisen Modellsimulationen hin. Insbesondere in den südeuropäischen Volkswirtschaften hingegen waren die Investitionen - vor allem im Wohnungsbau - in der Vorkrisenzeit ausgesprochen hoch, waren aber zu wesentlichen Teilen durch Kapitalzuflüsse aus dem Ausland finanziert. Im Zuge der Krise sind die ausländischen Direktinvestitionen und mit ihnen die Investitionstätigkeit eingebrochen, ohne dass dies bisher durch höhere Investitionen in anderen Teilen der Währungsunion ausgeglichen würde. Im Ergebnis liegen amaktuellen Rand die Investitionen im Euroraum deutlich unter dem Niveau, das den gesamtwirtschaftlichen Bedingungen entspräche; im Zeitraum zwischen 2010 und2012 wurden daran gemessen im Durchschnitt etwa zwei Prozent in Relation zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt zu wenig investiert. Damit verbunden sind erhebliche Wachstumseinbußen in der kurzen wie in der langen Frist, da der für die Expansion der Produktionsmöglichkeiten erforderliche Kapitalstock nur langsam wächst: Wäre die Investitionstätigkeit im Euroraum entsprechend höher gewesen, so hätte das Potentialwachstum in der Währungsunion seit der Krise um jahresdurchschnittlich 0,2 Prozentpunkte höher liegen können als tatsächlich beobachtet.
    Description: In the course of the economic and financial crisis, investment activity, which was not very strong to begin with, in Europe and especially the Eurozone caved in. In relation to gross domestic product, fixed capital formation declined by four percentage points since 2008. Already prior to the crisis, investment activity was rather weak in parts of the Eurozone - amongst others in Germany. This finding is indicated by model simulations which account for country-specific macroeconomic conditions. On the other hand, especially in southern European economies, investment - mostly in the home construction sector - was markedly high before the crisis. These investments were however mainly financed by capital inflows from abroad. In the course of the crisis, foreign direct investment slumped and so did investment activity in these countries which has not been counterbalanced by higher investments in other parts of the monetary union. As a result, current investment in the Eurozone remains markedly below the level corresponding to macroeconomic conditions. When measured against this baseline, there was an underinvestment of around two percent on average in relation to gross domestic product between 2010 and 2012. This is associated with significant reductions in growth in the short and long run since the capital stock needed to maintain production capacity is growing rather slowly. If investment activity in the Eurozone had been correspondingly stronger, potential growth in the monetary union could have been 0.2 percentage points higher than observed since the crisis.
    Keywords: E22 ; E27 ; F21 ; ddc:330 ; investment ; potential growth ; construction
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 4
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2016-02-08
    Description: In the course of the economic and financial crisis, investment activity, which was not very strong to begin with, in Europe and especially the Eurozone caved in. In relation to gross domestic product, fixed capital formation declined by four percentage points since 2008. Already prior to the crisis, investment activity was rather weak in parts of the Eurozone - amongst others in Germany. This finding is indicated by model simulations which account for country-specific macroeconomic conditions. On the other hand, especially in southern European economies, investment - mostly in the home construction sector - was markedly high before the crisis. These investments were however mainly financed by capital inflows from abroad. In the course of the crisis, foreign direct investment slumped and so did investment activity in these countries which has not been counterbalanced by higher investments in other parts of the monetary union. As a result, current investment in the Eurozone remains markedly below the level corresponding to macroeconomic conditions. When measured against this baseline, there was an underinvestment of around two percent on average in relation to gross domestic product between 2010 and 2012. This is associated with significant reductions in growth in the short and long run since the capital stock needed to maintain production capacity is growing rather slowly. If investment activity in the Eurozone had been correspondingly stronger, potential growth in the monetary union could have been 0.2 percentage points higher than observed since the crisis.
    Keywords: E22 ; E27 ; F21 ; ddc:330 ; investment ; potential growth ; construction
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
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