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  • Articles  (305)
  • ddc:330  (305)
  • F22  (15)
  • J24  (15)
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  • 1
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    Nottingham: The University of Nottingham, Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics (CeDEx)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-02
    Description: We investigate norms of corruption using the norm-elicitation procedure introduced by Krupka and Weber (2013). We use a within-subject design whereby the norms are elicited from the same subjects who are observed making choices in a bribery game. We test whether the order in which the norm-elicitation task and the bribery game are conducted affects elicited norms and behavior. We find little evidence of order effects in our experiment.
    Keywords: C91 ; ddc:330 ; social norms ; norm elicitation ; order effects ; within-subject design ; corruption ; bribe game
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 2
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    Chicago, IL: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: Forward rate guidance, which has been used with increasing regularity by monetary policymakers, relies on the manipulation of expectations of future short-term interest rates. We identify shocks to these expectations at short and long horizons since the early 1980s and examine their effects on contemporaneous macroeconomic outcomes. Our identification uses sign restrictions on survey forecasts incorporated in a structural VAR model to isolate expected deviations from the monetary- policy rule. We find that expectations of future policy easing that materialize over the subsequent four quarters - similar to those generated by credible forward guidance - .have immediate and persistent stimulative effects on output, inflation, and employment. The effects are larger than those produced by an identical shift in the policy path that is not anticipated. Our results are broadly consistent with the mechanism underlying forward guidance in New Keynesian models, but they suggest that those models overstate the persistence of the inflation response. Further, we find that changes in short-rate expectations farther in the future have weaker macroeconomic effects, the opposite of what most New Keynesian models predict.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    Chicago, IL: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: This paper develops and estimates a Quadratic-Gaussian model of the U.S. term structure that can accommodate the rich dynamics of inflation risk premia over the 1983-2013 period by allowing for time-varying market prices of inflation risk and incorporating survey information on inflation uncertainty in the estimation. The model captures changes in premia over very diverse periods, from the inflation scare episodes of the 1980s, when perceived inflation uncertainty was high, to the more recent episodes of negative premia, when perceived inflation uncertainty has been considerably smaller. A decomposition of the nominal ten-year yield suggests a decline in the estimated inflation risk premium of 1.7 percentage points from the early 1980s to mid 1990s. Subsequently, its predicted value has fluctuated around zero and turned negative at times, reaching its lowest values (about -0.6 percentage points) before the latest financial crisis, in 2005-2007, and during the subsequent weak recovery, in 2010-2012. The model's ability to generate sensible estimates of the inflation risk premium has important implications for the other components of the nominal yield: expected real rates, expected inflation, and real risk premia.
    Keywords: G12 ; E43 ; E44 ; C58 ; ddc:330 ; Quadratic-Gaussian Term Structure Models ; Inflation Risk Premium ; Survey Forecasts ; Hidden Factors
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2018-07-17
    Description: This article examines the causal relations between non-European immigration and the characteristics of the housing market in host regions. We constructed a unique database from administrative records and used it to assess annual migration flows into France's 22 administrative regions from 1990 to 2013. We then estimated various panel VAR models, taking into account GDP per capita and the unemployment rate as the main regional economic indicators. We find that immigration has no significant effect on property prices, but that higher property prices significantly reduce immigration rates. We also find no significant relationship between immigration and social housing supply.
    Keywords: E20 ; F22 ; J61 ; ddc:330 ; immigration ; property prices ; social housing ; panel VAR
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Buenos Aires: Universidad del Centro de Estudios Macroeconómicos de Argentina (UCEMA)
    Publication Date: 2018-06-28
    Description: At the time of Argentina's greenhouse gases emissions reduction voluntary commitment, most of the articles on intensity targets had not been published. The aim of this paper is to (re)discuss briefly the proposal made by Argentina taking into account that literature. To justify the adopted target form and stringency, we compare fixed and dynamic targets in terms of the likelihood of hot air, the relationship between allowed emissions and GDP, the link between abatement and GDP, and outcomes' dispersion. But, the assumptions implicit in the design of the target may change those properties. We show how the BAU scenario taken as reference and the level of emissions reduction affects targets' design and characteristics. Finally, considering different emissions projections, we perform a comparison between allowed emissions and projected ones during the first half commitment period (2008-2010), concluding that compliance with the commitment depends on the data source used in the calculations.
    Keywords: Q28 ; Q54 ; ddc:330 ; climate change ; intensity targets ; uncertainty ; Argentina ; Klimawandel ; Argentinien
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Buenos Aires: Universidad del Centro de Estudios Macroeconómicos de Argentina (UCEMA)
    Publication Date: 2018-06-28
    Description: Este trabajo intenta evaluar los determinantes que favorecen a que países de la región adopten políticas ambientales activas. Para eso, se toma como referencia dos indicadores de política ambiental internacional: el número de tratados internacionales ratificados referidos al medioambiente, y el cumplimiento con los programas sugeridos por la Agenda 21 para cumplimentar la meta de un desarrollo sostenible. Luego, se comparan dichos indicadores con variables que pueden explicar su performance. Éstas son principalmente de tres tipos: cuestiones socioeconómicas y de calidad de vida como el PBI o el nivel de educación, cuestiones políticas como el respeto de los derechos políticos y civiles de los ciudadanos, y, el status ambiental de los países. Los datos provienen de fuentes internacionales que hacen posible la comparación entre los países latinoamericanos. Las únicas variables que parecen ser importantes para evaluar si los países de la región van a tener políticas más activas a favor de la conservación del medio ambiente, parecen ser el grado de desarrollo humano (que mide el desarrollo en tres dimensiones: educación, esperanza de vida e ingresos) y la presión demográfica. Las libertades políticas y el status ambiental de los países no parecen determinar si éstos se inclinarán hacia políticas ambientales más activas. Los resultados son robustos a distintas especificaciones.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Umweltpolitik ; Lateinamerika ; Karibische Staaten
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: Spanish
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  • 7
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    Buenos Aires: Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA), Investigaciones Económicas (ie)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: We estimate a 'Hybrid New-Keynesian Phillips Curve' for Argentina between 1993 and 2007. We extend the model to a small open economy, considering separately the influence of nominal devaluation and foreign inflation on domestic prices. For the whole sample, we find that forward and backward-looking components are relevant although the backward-looking term weights more in determining inflation dynamics. We test for parameter stability and find a break-point in 2002 along with the regime change. In line with recent literature on trend inflation, when trend inflation increases, the influence of the output gap weakens and the curve becomes more forward-looking.
    Keywords: C5 ; E31 ; ddc:330 ; Argentina ; inflation dynamics ; Phillips Curve ; small open economy ; New-Keynesian Phillips Curve ; Argentinien
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Buenos Aires: Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA), Investigaciones Económicas (ie)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: This paper delves into the importance of access to .nancing for the performance of firms in export markets. Based on a unique microeconomic database that combines data on Argentine firms' characteristics and export performance with information on their domestic and external financing, we provide a rich insight into their financing patterns. Through the use of a descriptive and econometric analysis, we find that: i) having more access to bank credit facilitates firms' entry into export markets, ii) once they become exporters, it is the access to foreign financing what seems to matters for their success in foreign markets. Also, to study the duration of firms in export markets, we estimate survival functions by firm size, using the Kalpan-Meier estimator. We find that the probability of firms' survival in export mar kets increases with their size in the earlier years of exporting. Once firms become regular exporters, their permanece in export markets seems to less dependent on their size.
    Keywords: F10 ; F13 ; G20 ; G28 ; ddc:330 ; credit constraints ; bank credit ; international trade
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Zurich: University of Zurich, Department of Economics
    Publication Date: 2018-06-28
    Description: This paper studies the effect of leadership on the level and evolution of pro-social behavior using an artefactual field experiment on local public good provision. Participants decide how much to contribute to an actual conservation project. They can then revise their donations after being randomly matched in pairs on the basis of their authority and having observed each other's contributions. Authority is measured through a social ranking exercise identifying formal and moral leaders within the community. I find that giving by a pair is higher and shows a lower tendency to decrease over time when a leader is part of a pair. This is because higher-ranked pair members in general, and leaders in particular, donate more and are less likely to revise contributions downwards after giving more than their counterparts. Leadership effects are stronger when moral authority is made salient within the experiment, in line with the ethical nature of the decision under study. These findings highlight the importance of identifying different forms of leadership and targeting the relevant leaders in projects aimed at local public good provision.
    Keywords: D7 ; H4 ; O1 ; ddc:330 ; Leadership ; Local public goods ; Experimental ; Colombia ; Lokale öffentliche Güter ; Allokation ; Soziales Verhalten ; Kolumbien ; Test
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2018-06-28
    Description: In this paper we analyze the impact of immigrants on the type and quantity of native jobs. We use data on fifteen Western European countries during the 1996-2010 period. We find that immigrants, by taking manual-routine type of occupations pushed natives towards more complex (abstract and communication) jobs. Such positive reallocation occurred while the total number of jobs held by natives was unaffected. This job upgrade was associated in the short run to a 0.6% increase in native wages for a doubling of the immigrants' share. These results are robust to the use of two alternative IV strategies based on past settlement of immigrants across European countries measured alternatively with Census or Labor Force data. The job upgrade slowed, but did not come to a halt, during the Great Recession. We also document the labor market flows behind it: the complexity of jobs offered to new native hires was higher relative to the complexity of lost jobs. Finally, we find evidence that such reallocation was significantly larger in countries with more flexible labor laws and that his tendency was particularly strong for less educated workers.
    Keywords: J24 ; J31 ; J61 ; ddc:330 ; Immigration ; Jobs ; Task specialization ; Employment Protection Laws ; Europe
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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